Research & Developments is a blog for brief updates that provide context for the flurry of news regarding law and policy changes that impact science and scientists today.
The number of peer-reviewed scientific studies authored by scientists at the EPA has declined since the beginning of Donald Trump’s second administration, according to a new analysis.
The analysis was published by Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility (PEER), a nonprofit organization that advocates fo
Research & Developments is a blog for brief updates that provide context for the flurry of news regarding law and policy changes that impact science and scientists today.
The number of peer-reviewed scientific studies authored by scientists at the EPA has declined since the beginning of Donald Trump’s second administration, according to a new analysis.
The analysis was published by Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility (PEER), a nonprofit organization that advocates for public employees in the natural resource and environmental professions. The report tracks the number of peer-reviewed scientific studies authored by EPA scientists since 1977.
According to PEER’s analysis, 61 peer-reviewed publications by EPA scientists have been published so far this year, putting the agency on track to publish 183 articles by the end of 2026. That would be 67% of the number of articles published the previous year and 54% of the number of articles published in 2024.
“These numbers represent a diminution of scientific contributions from the fewer, remaining EPA scientists,” Kyla Bennett, a science policy director at PEER and a former EPA attorney, said in a statement. “The net result is that the scientific contribution of EPA to a greater understanding of what affects human health and the environment will be diminished.”
The number of peer-reviewed publications authored by EPA scientists in 2026 will be just over half of the number published in 2024, if current publication rates continue. As of 5 May, 2026, EPA authors have published 61 peer-reviewed articles for the year. Credit: PEER, Grace van Deelen
Peer-reviewed publications can take years to review and publish, meaning the work for a publication may have occurred during a previous administration. But the decline in publications may indicate a shift away from long-term basic research at the agency, according to PEER.
Since Trump took office, hundreds of scientists have been terminated from the EPA or have chosen to resign, and scientists working within at least one of its research office have been told to pause efforts to publish research, representing “millions of dollars of research, potentially, that’s now being stopped,” one EPA employee told The Washington Post anonymously.
In February, the EPA took final steps to eliminate the Office of Research and Development, the arm of the agency responsible for conducting research. In its place, Administrator Lee Zeldin announced that a new office, called the Office of Applied Science and Environmental Solutions, would be formed but would not operate as a separate division.
Six EPA scientists who signed an open letter expressing frustration about changes to the agency, including the elimination of the Office of Research and Development, were terminated and have filed claims with the federal government arguing that their terminations were illegal retaliation.
These updates are made possible through information from the scientific community. Do you have a story about how changes in law or policy are affecting scientists or research? Send us a tip at eos@agu.org.
Source: Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems
About 600 million years ago, the continents wandered Earth, yet to settle into their current positions. Their locations during the Ediacaran (as this time is called) have been tough for scientists to pin down. Earth’s magnetic field appears to have behaved in erratic ways, and applying standard techniques to calculate the continents’ positions based on records of the magnetic field yields implausible results. In particular, scientists debate the l
About 600 million years ago, the continents wandered Earth, yet to settle into their current positions. Their locations during the Ediacaran (as this time is called) have been tough for scientists to pin down. Earth’s magnetic field appears to have behaved in erratic ways, and applying standard techniques to calculate the continents’ positions based on records of the magnetic field yields implausible results. In particular, scientists debate the location of an ancient continent called Baltica, which is now part of Europe.
To investigate, Xue et al. traveled to Egersund, Norway, to collect samples of rock that formed during a time when Baltica’s crust was being pulled apart, allowing magma to percolate up from below. As that magma hardened, it recorded snapshots of Earth’s magnetic field, storing information about Baltica’s position in the process.
The results of studying these samples revealed a much more complex picture of the ancient rocks than the scientists initially envisioned. The rocks contained a messy mix of at least six magnetic signals. Several appeared to have formed when more modern geological processes altered the original rocks. Three distinct signals may have survived from the Ediacaran period, two of which diverge from the most plausible Ediacaran signal, which places Baltica near the equator. These conflicting signals further support the idea that Earth’s magnetic field was behaving strangely at the time, adding new complexity to an already puzzling picture.
On the basis of the new results, the researchers place the Egersund paleomagnetic pole at 20.8°N, 89.0°E during the Ediacaran—which diverges from previous results—and suggest that Baltica was located near the equator, adjacent to the ancient continent Laurentia, but rotated slightly clockwise relative to previous reconstructions. The study demonstrates the convoluted nature of the magnetic signals preserved in ancient rocks and the importance of dissecting those records into their constituent components. Doing so, the researchers suggest, can shed new light on the enigmatic behavior of Earth’s magnetic field during the Ediacaran. (Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GC012730, 2026)
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors.
Source: Water Resources Research
In the March 2026 issue of Water Resources Research, Zhang et al. [2026] interrogate conceptual hydrologic models’ ability to capture prolonged drought dynamics. The Australian Millennium drought serves as an example in the study. The results are quite sobering because the vast majority of more than 40 models fail. Unfortunately, calibration doesn’t generally help either and might
In the March 2026 issue of Water Resources Research, Zhang et al. [2026] interrogate conceptual hydrologic models’ ability to capture prolonged drought dynamics. The Australian Millennium drought serves as an example in the study. The results are quite sobering because the vast majority of more than 40 models fail. Unfortunately, calibration doesn’t generally help either and might result in massive overfitting. In essence, conceptual models miss deep aquifer storage components and associated hydrodynamic processes leading to a lack of time scales important in drought modeling. The study is a constructive reminder that model parsimony is not necessarily a good thing and that detailed representation of complex physical processes is part of hydrologic sciences.
Citation: Zhang, Z., Fowler, K., & Peel, M. (2026). Can conceptual rainfall-runoff models capture multi-annual storage dynamics? Water Resources Research, 62, e2025WR042226. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025WR042226
Editors’ Vox is a blog from AGU’s Publications Department.
AGU Advances is excited to announce the journal’s inaugural Early Career Editorial Board! The editors of AGU Advances have selected three early career researchers to join the Early Career Editorial Fellow program:
Huilin Huang
University of Virginia
Yihe Huang
University of Michigan
Danielle Monteverde Potocek
Spark Climate Solutions
They will serve as
AGU Advances is excited to announce the journal’s inaugural Early Career Editorial Board! The editors of AGU Advances have selected three early career researchers to join the Early Career Editorial Fellow program:
Huilin Huang
University of Virginia
Yihe Huang
University of Michigan
Danielle Monteverde Potocek
Spark Climate Solutions
They will serve as Associate Editors from January 2026 to December 2027, under the leadership of the mentoring editors: David Schimel (Jet Propulsion Laboratory), Thorsten Becker (The University of Texas at Austin, Jackson School of Geoscience), and Eric Davidson (University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science), respectively. AGU Advances is excited to join AGU journals GeoHealth and JGR: Biogeosciences (Xenopoulos, M. A., and T. H. Nguyen, 2024) in launching an Early Career Editorial Fellow program and grateful to our exceptional Early Career Fellows for volunteering their time in service of scientific publishing. This mentorship program, designed to offer a hands-on approach for researchers interested in editorial roles, will support the next generation of researchers and journal editors and lead to stronger futures for our journals and scientific community.
The Early Career Fellows will work one-on-one with a current AGU Advances Editor.
The Early Career Fellows will work one-on-one with a current AGU Advances Editor to learn about the steps of the editorial process, the ethics of reviewing, and what goes into making a decision on a manuscript. They will also learn about the more challenging elements of the editorial process, such as securing reviewers, addressing conflicting reviews, addressing author and/or reviewer concerns.
As the scientific world, and the world at large, change and shift, so too does the world of academic publishing and the needs of future researchers. By working with these Early Career Fellows, we will gain invaluable insight on how to keep our publications at the forefront for the Earth and space sciences.
Below, we asked the Early Career Fellows about their research interests and what they are excited about as they step into this new role (responses edited for length and clarity):
What is your current role and area of research?
Danie: “My areas of research include: biogeochemistry, geobiology, climate science, and global environmental change. “
Huilin: “My area of research is land-atmosphere interaction especially biosphere-atmosphere interaction and climate modeling.”
Yihe: “My group studies the physical mechanisms of earthquakes and faulting processes using both observational methods (e.g., seismic data analysis) and numerical tools (e.g., earthquake rupture simulation). We’re particularly interested in how fluid, fault zone structure, and fault geometry can affect the nucleation, propagation and arrest of earthquakes and how earthquakes contribute to the strain budget and structural evolution of fault zones and plate boundaries. We also have a broad interest in developing physical tools for seismic hazard mitigation and bridging earthquake science and engineering applications.”
Do you have prior experience as a journal editor?
Danie: “This is my first experience in an editorial role.”
Yihe: “Yes, I’ve been an Associate Editor for JGR: Solid Earth since 2020, and I’ve been an editor for Earth, Planets and Space since last year.”
What interested you in joining the AGU Advances editorial board?
Danie: “I was eager to learn more about the publishing process from the editorial perspective, engage with fellow editors, and contribute to supporting the scientific community. I was also particularly drawn to the structure of the Early Career Board, which offers the opportunity to be mentored by a senior editor and develop editorial expertise before handling manuscripts independently. “
Huilin: “I am drawn to AGU Advances because it prioritizes high-impact studies that fundamentally shift our understanding.”
Yihe: “I’m interested in getting a broader perspective about how an editorial board works, especially for a cross-disciplinary high-impact journal like AGU Advances.”
What would you like to see next from AGU Advances or the AGU journals as a whole?
Danie: “AGU Advances already has a strong focus and track record of publishing research with global relevance and impact. I am excited to support this mission and would also like to see continued expansion of the author base to include more diverse geographies (particularly Asia and Global South) as well as a broader range of career stages.
I would also welcome AGU journals to continue their outreach and engagement with the community that balances traditional hypothesis-driven research with action-oriented perspectives addressing urgent scientific and societal challenges especially considering the rapidly shifting landscape of scientific research.”
Huilin: “I am particularly interested in seeing the conversation toward the use of new technolog[ies] (like AI/ML or new satellite, new models) to advanc[ing] process-level understanding.”
Yihe: “I would like to see editors’ perspectives on how AGU Advances distinguishes itself from other high-impact journals. I would also like to learn how we can advertise and communicate the advantages of publishing in AGU Advances through different avenues.”
We are so appreciative of our volunteer Editors, David Schimel, Thorsten Becker, and Eric Davidson, who will be mentoring our new Early Career Fellows. Here, we asked them what they are looking forward to most about the program:
What outcomes for AGU Advances do you hope to see from the Early Career Board?
Dave: “ECRs provide a fresh view and are often much closer to the methods and science in papers we receive. An ECR and a Board editor have a great combination, experience, perspective and familiarity up close with the work and the community.”
Eric: “The associate editors become interested in being full editors and are well prepared. At a minimum, they have an experience that makes them better authors and reviewers because of the perspective they’ve gained as associate editors.
Why did you decide to become a mentoring editor?
Editing scientific papers can be a true joy of learning and discovery.
Thorsten Becker
Thorsten: “We value a diversity of perspectives and background when assessing contributions during initial and formal review, and it will be terrific to benefit from Yihe’s expertise. Editing scientific papers can be a true joy of learning and discovery, and we think this position will be a great pathway to take on a larger role in this community process while having a somewhat reduced workload and being able to participate in an exchange about best practices and a mentoring system that can hopefully facilitate sharing best practices and insights gained from prolonged work in an editorial role.”
Dave: “Oh, man, when I started as a peer reviewer and then a guest editor, followed by being a member of a board, each step was sink or swim! I am happy to share a few lessons learned but also expect to learn a lot from my ECR’s view from the cutting edge. I think we’ll have fun learning from each other.”
What advice would you give to early career researchers interested in becoming journal editors?
Seeing publishing from the other side is really important for maturing scientists!
David Schimel
Dave: “Being an editor is an amazing way to broader your knowledge and network, but being an editor is serious work, is a paper going to advance science, or, with appropriate guidance could it advance science? Does it build on the literature or ignore relevant work? Accepting/rejecting papers has huge career impact on authors but we have to keep in mind we review papers to advance science, not to play career games, while recognizing publications have become very much about careers with all manner of distorted and perverse incentives. Seeing publishing from the other side is really important for maturing scientists! Also, you learn that ten extra minutes to explain a decision to an author can change a life! I’ve learned a HUGE amount from the peer reviewers and editors of my own papers!”
Eric: “Accept invitations to review manuscripts. Let an editor or EiC know of your interest. Make sure you have the time to do this.”
Citation: Schuette, A., A. Montanari, H. Huang, Y. Huang, D. Monteverde Potocek, T. Becker, E. Davidson, D. Schimel, K. Vrouwenvelder, and S. Dedej (2026), Announcing the inaugural AGU AdvancesEarly Career Editorial Fellows, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO265018. Published on 5 May 2026.
This article does not represent the opinion of AGU, Eos, or any of its affiliates. It is solely the opinion of the author(s).
The solar system is bathed in galactic cosmic rays: protons and atomic nuclei traveling, nearly at the speed of light, from all directions. Earth’s magnetic field and atmosphere shield us from most of this harmful radiation, but outside of that shelter, the bombardment is strong enough to prove a threat to astronauts.
But a new analysis of data from the Chang’e-4 lunar lander published in Science Advances revealed an extended cosmic ray shelter stretching from Earth at an unexpected angle at
The solar system is bathed in galactic cosmic rays: protons and atomic nuclei traveling, nearly at the speed of light, from all directions. Earth’s magnetic field and atmosphere shield us from most of this harmful radiation, but outside of that shelter, the bombardment is strong enough to prove a threat to astronauts.
But a new analysis of data from the Chang’e-4 lunar lander published in Science Advances revealed an extended cosmic ray shelter stretching from Earth at an unexpected angle at least as far as the Moon, though exactly how far is unclear. When the Moon passes through this shelter in its orbit of Earth, the lunar surface experiences a roughly 20% reduction in the galactic cosmic ray flux.
“We found Earth casts kind of a shadow in the galactic cosmic ray space,” said Robert F. Wimmer-Schweingruber, a space physicist at Kiel University in Germany. “This was unexpected, and to me that was the cool part of this paper.”
The surprise came in part because the shape of Earth’s magnetic field is well understood: It forms a strong protective region around the planet known as the magnetosphere, with a long “tail” shaped by the solar wind of charged particles streaming from the Sun.
If the magnetotail is like a person’s shadow cast behind them by sunshine, this newly discovered bubble would be like if that shadow extended to the front of the person as well.
“You would expect an effect inside the tail or as [the Moon goes] through the tail, but we find an effect of the tail ahead of the tail,” said Wimmer-Schweingruber. He noted that if the magnetotail is like a person’s shadow cast behind them by sunshine, this newly discovered bubble would be like if that shadow extended to the front of the person as well and tilted rather than lying along a line connecting Earth, the Sun, and the Moon.
“The observed region of reduced [galactic cosmic ray] flux on the sunward side of the Moon’s orbit outside the geomagnetic field where it is compressed by the solar wind is unexpected,” Brian Flint Rauch wrote in an email. Rauch, a cosmic ray physicist at Washington University in St. Louis who was not involved in the Chang’e-4 study, added that any reduction in cosmic ray exposure is noteworthy for potential astronauts on the Moon.
A 20% decrease in flux during part of the lunar orbit is unlikely to make a large difference in determining when it’s safest for astronauts go out onto the lunar surface. But it might help guide individual decisions in the moment because while spacesuits won’t protect astronauts from cosmic rays, the metal of a habitat or lander would.
Shelter from the Storm
The China National Space Administration’s Chang’e-4 spacecraft was the first successful mission to the lunar farside, landing in the Von Kármán crater on 3 January 2019. As part of its suite of scientific instruments, the probe carried the Lunar Lander Neutron and Dosimetry experiment (LND) developed by Wimmer-Schweingruber and collaborators at Kiel University in an astonishingly rapid 18 months. This detector was designed in part to gauge conditions for human exploration by measuring the radiation on the Moon’s surface, including cosmic rays.
LND collected data between January 2019 and January 2022. Though Apollo astronauts carried radiation dosimeters, those instruments did not provide detailed information about fluctuations in exposure, making LND the primary source for such information from the lunar surface. For that reason, it provided the best data on galactic cosmic rays, which consist mostly of protons accelerated to nearly the speed of light in the remnants of supernovas.
Measurements show the ambient radiation dose on the lunar surface is more than twice as high as on the ISS and nearly 200 times as high as on Earth.
These protons arrive in the solar system from every direction, often undeflected by the magnetic fields of stars or planets. However, Earth’s magnetosphere is strong enough to repel many galactic cosmic rays in low orbit, where the International Space Station (ISS) resides. Meanwhile, measurements show the ambient radiation dose on the lunar surface is more than twice as high as on the ISS and nearly 200 times as high as on Earth, which is a matter of concern for long-term human presence on the Moon.
All of these reasons are why everyone was surprised when LND data revealed Earth’s magnetic protection extends far beyond the magnetosphere and at an angle to the line connecting Earth and the Sun. Lead author Wensai Shang of Shandong University in Weihai, China, worked out that the angle corresponds to the twisting of the Sun’s magnetic field.
“As the Sun rotates, it pulls the solar wind along the solar magnetic field,” Wimmer-Schweingruber said. “That produces a spiral.” Apparently, an unanticipated interaction between this twist in the solar magnetic field and Earth’s magnetic field produces the cosmic ray shelter revealed by LND.
Wimmer-Schweingruber noted that he was extremely skeptical that such results were possible at first. He warned Shang, a graduate student he worked with, that he might be wasting his time looking for cosmic ray anomalies in the Chang’e-4 data. It was only after Shang provided ironclad analyses ruling out other possibilities that he was swayed.
With the LND instrument shut off, researchers need other sources of data to continue the work. Wimmer-Schweingruber expressed particular interest in understanding how cosmic rays produce secondary radiation—especially neutrons, which are very dangerous to humans—when they impact the lunar soil. In the meantime, the general understanding of the radiation environment provided by Chang’e-4 shows we still have some surprises in store as humans explore the solar system.
Citation: Francis, M. R. (2026), Moon mission data reveal unexpected cosmic ray “shadow,” Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260137. Published on 4 May 2026.
Source: AGU Advances
Urbanization, climate change, and fire suppression practices are contributing to increased wildfire risk at the densely populated wildland-urban interface. These factors make fires more unpredictable and harder to manage. In January 2025, this was made devastatingly clear in Los Angeles, when massive wildfires engulfed entire hillsides and canyons, destroying neighborhoods and damaging surrounding ecosystems.
The Mediterranean climate region of California, which stret
Urbanization, climate change, and fire suppression practices are contributing to increased wildfire risk at the densely populated wildland-urban interface. These factors make fires more unpredictable and harder to manage. In January 2025, this was made devastatingly clear in Los Angeles, when massive wildfires engulfed entire hillsides and canyons, destroying neighborhoods and damaging surrounding ecosystems.
The Mediterranean climate region of California, which stretches up most of the state’s coastline, is a naturally fire-prone landscape because its dry conditions support vegetation growth and also allow for fire to spread easily. As wildfires become more intense, better modeling and understanding of their drivers is crucial in efforts to predict risk.
Ward-Baranyay et al. looked at three of the January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires by analyzing preburn conditions, such as fuel characteristics, topography (including elevation and slope), and wind speed. Satellite observations gathered from the Ecosystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) and the Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT)—precursors to a recently announced NASA mission, the Explorer for Artemis Geology Lunar and Earth (EAGLE)—provided detailed information about the vegetation’s condition before the fires began. The researchers then built a random forest regression model to predict burn severity based on these conditions, ultimately demonstrating that prefire fuel conditions were a key driver of the destructive wildfires’ immediate effects on wildlands.
The model used in the study was able to accurately capture about 60% of the patterns in burn severity. It was most accurate for the Palisades and Hughes fires, but less accurate for the Eaton Fire. This discrepancy could be because the area burned by the Eaton Fire was more topographically variable, meaning its burn severity drivers may not have been fully captured by the model, the researchers suggest. Vegetation type was also a strong performance indicator: Terrain with shrub or scrub cover, the dominant vegetation type, offered the most accurate predictions for burn severity. The burn patterns of forests and other landscape types were less accurately captured.
Fuel conditions emerged as the dominant driver of burn severity, more so than topography or weather. In particular, how abundant, wet, dry, or stressed vegetation is can hint at how severe future fires may be. Tracking and monitoring these fuel conditions, researchers suggest, may be a way to monitor wildfire hazard in California and other fire-prone regions. (AGU Advances, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025AV002179, 2026)
Citation: Owen, R. (2026), Want to predict wildfire severity? Look to the state of vegetation, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260130. Published on 4 May 2026.
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors.
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface
Antarctica’s snow and ice surfaces play a key role in how the continent exchanges heat and moisture with the atmosphere. A key property controlling this exchange is aerodynamic roughness length (zo), which measures how “bumpy” the surface is. Rougher surfaces, such as snow sastrugi (wind-formed ridges and grooves), interact more strongly with the air above, a
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface
Antarctica’s snow and ice surfaces play a key role in how the continent exchanges heat and moisture with the atmosphere. A key property controlling this exchange is aerodynamic roughness length (zo), which measures how “bumpy” the surface is. Rougher surfaces, such as snow sastrugi (wind-formed ridges and grooves), interact more strongly with the air above, affecting snow movement, melting, and local environmental conditions. Despite its importance, zo is often treated as a single, constant value over large areas in Earth system models because it is difficult to measure.
Zheng et al. [2026] use a multi-temporal Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) oblique photogrammetry to map fine scale zo variability at Qinling Station in East Antarctica. The results show that zo can vary substantially depending on surface type, measurement scale, model choice, and meteorological conditions. The complex response of surface microtopography to meteorological events is a noteworthy new finding. For example, in snow sastrugi areas, zo can vary by an order of magnitude over time, increasing after snowfall and decreasing under strong winds. These findings highlight that capturing fine-scale surface roughness is essential for accurately modeling snow–atmosphere interactions in Antarctica and could help improve current weather and climate models for polar regions.
Citation: Zheng, Z., Zheng, L., Wang, K., Clow, G. D., & Cheng, X. (2026). UAV oblique imagery reveals order-of-magnitude changes in snow aerodynamic roughness length under shifting meteorological regimes at Qinling Station, East Antarctica. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 131, e2025JF008781. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JF008781
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors.
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Abrupt temperature swings between consecutive days, referred to as day-to-day temperature variability, have far-reaching impacts on human health, ecosystems, and economic activity. However, how these fluctuations vary from year to year, and what drives them, has remained unclear.
Using observations, reanalysis, and CMIP6 simulations from 1961 to 2014, Liu an
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Abrupt temperature swings between consecutive days, referred to as day-to-day temperature variability, have far-reaching impacts on human health, ecosystems, and economic activity. However, how these fluctuations vary from year to year, and what drives them, has remained unclear.
Using observations, reanalysis, and CMIP6 simulations from 1961 to 2014, Liu and Fu [2026] identify a coherent large-scale pattern of variability across Eurasia and North America. This variability is primarily driven by the north–south movement of warm and cold air masses.
The dominant drivers also vary by season: large-scale meteorological patterns prevail in winter, whereas local land–atmosphere feedbacks become more influential in summer. Together, these processes reshape temperature gradients and modulate storm activity and broader weather systems.
Overall, the findings provide new insights into the mechanisms of temperature variability and offer a scientific basis for improving seasonal climate risk prediction and adaptation strategies.
Citation: Liu, Q., & Fu, C. (2026). Interannual variations in the day-to-day temperature variability in the northern hemisphere and possible causalities. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 131, e2025JD045754. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD045754
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors.
Source: AGU Advances
The critical zone (CZ) refers to the layer of Earth extending from the bedrock up to the vegetation canopy, including interconnected systems such as river and floodplain corridors, the active soil and root zone, and the near-surface environment where plants interact with the atmosphere. The conservation of the CZ requires a detailed understanding of how it evolves under anthropogenic impacts,
The critical zone (CZ) refers to the layer of Earth extending from the bedrock up to the vegetation canopy, including interconnected systems such as river and floodplain corridors, the active soil and root zone, and the near-surface environment where plants interact with the atmosphere. The conservation of the CZ requires a detailed understanding of how it evolves under anthropogenic impacts, such as intensive agriculture.
Goodwell et al. [2026] use a data driven approach to relate shifts in the critical zone to indicators of human impact. Their findings deliver innovative knowledge on transitions, drivers, and predictability in many contexts, and support better prediction and management of the critical zone under environmental change.
In particular, the authors find evidence of abrupt shifts in the variability of key features like stream and soil chemistry, land-atmosphere interaction and so forth, which can be attributed to intensive management, for instance due to mechanized planting and harvesting. These human-impacted and naturally appearing regimes in the dynamics of critical zone have implications for understanding processes and making predictions of the status of the critical zone under environmental change.
Data-driven methods include grouping of time-series data with clustering to detect regimes, dimensionality reduction to simplify system dynamics and identify main sources of variability. Credit: Goodwell et al. [2026], Figure 1
Citation: Goodwell, A. E., Saccardi, B., Dere, A., Druhan, J., Wang, J., Welp, L. R., et al. (2026). Detecting regimes of critical zone processes, drivers and predictability with a data-driven framework. AGU Advances, 7, e2025AV002098. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025AV002098
Seeking Solutions to PFAS Pollution
Chemical Companies Are Churning Out New PFAS. Where in the World Are They Ending Up?
The Persistence of PFAS
A Peculiar Polymer Paired with Sunlight Could Remove PFAS
Tracing the Path of PFAS Across Antarctica
Pollution Is Rampant. We Might As Well Make Use of It.
This month, Eos is taking a long look at “forever chemicals.” Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) have been percolating through our industrial environment since the 19
This month, Eos is taking a long look at “forever chemicals.” Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) have been percolating through our industrial environment since the 1940s. They help make products nonstick, waterproof, and stain resistant. They also make their way into air, soil, and water, as well as our bodies, where they have been linked to impaired immune systems, developmental delays in children, and some cancers.
Since discovering that PFAS might be harmful to human and environmental health, researchers and industries have reformed the chemicals into novel substances. The behaviors of these novel PFAS are proving difficult to pin down, as Grace van Deelen explores in her feature “Chemical Companies Are Churning Out New PFAS. Where in the World Are They Ending Up?”
From the deep ocean to alpine glaciers, scientists are being forced to play “chemical Whac-A-Mole” to study novel PFAS, one scientist told van Deelen. Researchers are also searching for—and finding—PFAS in the isolated interior of the White Continent, as described in Rebecca Owen’s “Tracing the Path of PFAS Across Antarctica.”
Another option is to put PFAS to work. Read about how scientists are using trifluoroacetic acid, a less toxic PFAS, to gain a rough idea of how recently an aquifer has been recharged in Saima May Sidik’s “Pollution Is Rampant. We Might As Well Make Use of It.”
As PFAS permeate our environment in different ways, scientists are taking the lead in developing proactive approaches to search for, study, and maybe take the “forever” out of “forever chemicals.”
Seeking Solutions to PFAS Pollution
Chemical Companies Are Churning Out New PFAS. Where in the World Are They Ending Up?
The Persistence of PFAS
A Peculiar Polymer Paired with Sunlight Could Remove PFAS
Tracing the Path of PFAS Across Antarctica
Pollution Is Rampant. We Might As Well Make Use of It.
On a rocky archipelago in the North Atlantic Ocean, staff at the Faroese Environment Agency and the Faroe Marine Research Institute regularly sample tissues from the North At
On a rocky archipelago in the North Atlantic Ocean, staff at the Faroese Environment Agency and the Faroe Marine Research Institute regularly sample tissues from the North Atlantic long-finned pilot whales that roam the waters around the islands. The archive of these samples stretches back to the 1980s and has helped researchers determine the reach of human-made contaminants in the remote marine environment.
Jennifer Sun is one of those researchers. Sun studies PFAS—per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, commonly known as “forever chemicals”—at Harvard University and is the lead author of a recently published study that analyzed how these toxic chemicals have accumulated in pilot whale tissue over the past 2 decades.
Using samples of whale tissue collected between 2001 and 2023, Sun and her colleagues measured a parameter called bulk extractable organofluorine, which shows the overall amount of organofluorine-containing chemicals (including PFAS) in the tissue. They then used a more targeted analysis able to confirm the identity of 28 specific chemicals out of thousands of possible PFAS formulations.
The pilot whale tissue showed an expected decrease in the concentrations of older PFAS but an unexpected scarcity of newer PFAS chemicals. Credit: Jennifer Sun
The study’s results showed an expected decrease in the concentrations of older PFAS but an unexpected absence of newer PFAS chemicals. This anomaly could be indicative of an emerging question in PFAS research: Where are the newest PFAS going?
Prolific PFAS
There are two general categories of PFAS. The first includes legacy PFAS such as perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS). Chemical manufacturers produced these compounds in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s for products including nonstick cookware and food packaging and in industries such as fabric waterproofing, industrial manufacturing, and firefighting.
Legacy PFAS were phased out in the early 2000s, and novel PFAS were made to replace them. The term “novel” is independent of chemical properties and instead refers to when the chemicals’ production began, though novel PFAS typically have formulations meant to reduce their persistence in the environment. For example, many novel PFAS molecules have shorter chains of fluorinated carbons than their legacy counterparts.
Novel PFAS include possibly millions of different chemical structures, and their production and use are increasing globally.
A generic PFAS molecule includes a compound head connected to a tail of fluorinated carbons. Older PFAS generally have longer tails (seven or eight carbons) than newer ones. Credit: Mary Heinrichs/AGU, after https://bit.ly/pennstate-ext-pfas
In the United States and elsewhere, regulatory structures that limit PFAS production target specific chemicals, such that every new formulation by a company must be tested individually before restrictions are put in place. With companies continually conjuring new PFAS formulations—which environmental advocates often call “regrettable substitutions” for their sometimes harmful effects—understanding the fate and transport of novel PFAS is difficult and time-consuming. Research on the behavior of specific PFAS may be a drop in the bucket when millions of potential PFAS, with millions of potential behaviors, pose current and future risks to people and the environment.
Scientists like Sun are determined to untangle how the fate of these new chemicals differs from their predecessors. As Sun expected, the phaseout of legacy PFAS was reflected in the pilot whale tissue she tested. These results are good news; they clearly show that the bans on legacy PFAS are working.
“We’re still finding [older] compounds, but clearly, they are no longer as abundant in the environment as they used to be, which is a positive,” said Bridger Ruyle, an environmental engineer at New York University who studies PFAS and assisted Sun and her coauthors in deciding which methods to use for the new study.
But Sun and her colleagues also expected an overall increase in concentrations of novel PFAS—after all, production of these chemicals is higher than ever, and researchers finally had the analytical tools to catch them.
“The inference is, if it’s not in the whales, and it’s not in the ocean…where is it?”
That wasn’t what they found. Instead, all but two of the emerging PFAS they tested for were virtually nowhere to be seen in the whale tissue, leaving the scientists leading the study to wonder where novel PFAS were accumulating or if instrumentation was limiting their detection.
“We do know that the novel PFAS are being produced, which means they’re going somewhere. Where they are, and how exposed people and other wildlife are, is not as clear,” Sun said.
“The inference is, if it’s not in the whales, and it’s not in the ocean…where is it?” asked Elsie Sunderland, an environmental scientist at Harvard University and coauthor of the new study.
Sun and Sunderland’s question—asking where novel PFAS are going—is one scientists are probing from multiple angles. Those who study particle transport are asking how novel PFAS might travel through Earth’s water and air. Those on the chemistry side of the investigation are deducing how novel PFAS might break down. And those who monitor environments are looking for traces of novel PFAS in various corners of Earth.
The answers to their questions have direct, practical implications for human and environmental health and could indicate whether a growing proportion of harmful PFAS may be ending up in close proximity to humans—where we work and eat and breathe.
A Toxic Legacy
The chemical properties of PFAS have made the chemicals useful since the 1940s. These same properties also make them highly persistent—the most durable types may not break down in the environment for several thousand years.
PFAS are linked to certain cancers and other human health harms. Much of the available data linking PFAS to poor health come from analyses of legacy PFOA and PFOS. They show an association between increased exposure to these chemicals and altered immune and thyroid function, liver and kidney disease, reproductive system disruptions, and more.
Chemical manufacturers phased out production of legacy PFAS after scientific evidence emerged associating PFAS and human health harms, businesses began to lose money in massive lawsuits, and regulations tightened. Novel PFAS were intended to show properties similar to legacy PFAS but were meant to break down more easily in the environment (lower persistence) and accumulate less easily in living tissue (lower bioaccumulative ability), though studies have shown mixed results about whether novel PFAS are actually safer for humans or break down more easily.
Because PFAS production data are often proprietary, scientists who study PFAS, like Sun, must rely on partial inventories of PFAS production or reverse-engineer those numbers from observations in the environment.
“We call it chemical Whac-A-Mole.”
Without a clear list of the chemical structures of novel PFAS, scientists don’t always have the analytical standards necessary for routine detection. And once scientists do understand the behavior of a PFAS chemical, it may be quickly replaced by another, unknown alternative. “We call it chemical Whac-A-Mole,” Sunderland said.
Legacy PFAS tend to have a high affinity for water and typically end up in the ocean, the place scientists refer to as the chemicals’ “terminal sink.” Many legacy PFAS also entered the ocean through atmospheric transport such as rain or snow. But because of the sheer number of chemical formulas and the chemical differences between legacy and novel PFAS, the pathways that novel PFAS take through the environment are less clear.
Tracking the movement and accumulation of novel PFAS in the environment is crucial for understanding how these chemicals may affect ecological and human health.
Still, the science is inconclusive about whether novel PFAS are moving or accumulating differently than their legacy counterparts, whether they have a different terminal sink, and where that terminal sink may be.
Close to Home
One possible answer to the question of the missing novel PFAS may have to do with geography. The chemicals may not have reached pilot whales in the Faroes because something about the new chemistry has led them elsewhere in the environment. To Sun, evidence suggests “that a lot of these novel PFAS, which we know are being produced, may not be transporting out into this more remote environment either at all or as quickly.”
Novel PFAS might be accumulating closer to their sources—and closer to us. “It may simply be that some of the replacement PFAS don’t make it all the way out into the open ocean. But if they are still in the terrestrial environment and the near-coastal environment, then wildlife and people who live close to the sources can be exposed, said Frank Wania, an environmental chemist at the University of Toronto Scarborough.
For example, one study monitored PFAS in coastal beluga whales in Canada’s St. Lawrence Estuary, relatively close to human communities and PFAS manufacturing sources. The study showed increasing concentrations of unregulated novel PFAS in whale tissue from 2000 to 2017, while concentrations of legacy PFAS declined.
The suggestion that novel PFAS are accumulating close to human communities is supported by measurements of PFAS in human tissue, too. Studies show that a high proportion of detectable organofluorine chemicals in human tissue are increasingly unidentifiable, suggesting that some of the novel PFAS production “is in us,” Sunderland said.
Far and Away
Though there are some indications that novel PFAS may be retained closer to human communities, there are also reasons to think some novel PFAS chemistries have resulted in substances that can actually travel farther and more easily than their legacy counterparts.
Anna Kärrman, an environmental chemist at Örebro University in Sweden, said that some novel PFAS may be more easily transported in the environment: “The more novel chemistries are increasing the properties of being very mobile in water, very mobile in the atmosphere, and not necessarily very bioaccumulative.”
The mobility of novel PFAS was on full display in a 2020 study that Sunderland coauthored, in which researchers reported detecting hexafluoropropylene oxide-dimer acid, a novel PFAS chemical more commonly known as GenX, in the Arctic for the first time. GenX, produced by chemical manufacturer Chemours, was meant to replace the legacy compound PFOA. The 2020 study suggested GenX “has already moved quite a bit,” said Rainer Lohmann, a marine geochemist who leads the STEEP (Sources, Transport, Exposure and Effects of PFAS) Center at the University of Rhode Island.
A pulley system mounted on a red beam pulls a small envelope filled with water along a string. Credit: Thomas Soltwedel
The 2020 study also found higher concentrations of PFAS in the Arctic Ocean’s surface water, suggesting that the atmosphere was a particularly important transport pathway for chemical transport. This idea is supported by studies of High Arctic ice caps, which experience contamination only from atmospheric sources, and polar bear tissue. Atmospheric transport of novel PFAS is a subject “at the edge” of PFAS research, Sunderland said.
Wherever researchers look, they’re finding that atmospheric transport is an important pathway by which some PFAS, especially PFAS precursors—chemicals that break down in the environment and become PFAS (either novel or legacy)—move. One idea called the PAART (precursor atmospheric and reaction transport) theory was developed by Scott Mabury, an environmental chemist at the University of Toronto, and others. The PAART theory proposes that many of the harmful PFAS that end up in the most remote parts of Earth are the result of the breakdown of volatile precursor PFAS that have traveled in the atmosphere.
According to Lohmann, atmospheric transport means the ocean remains a terminal sink because many novel PFAS transported in rain or snow will ultimately be deposited in the ocean.
In this scenario, the question of why novel PFAS are not bioaccumulating in Faroese pilot whales remains a mystery. While Lohmann suggests the novel compounds simply don’t accumulate in living tissue, Sunderland isn’t sure that’s the whole story: “As apex predators, the whales are sentinels for what is available and being taken up from the ocean,” she wrote in an email. “Since we don’t see [novel PFAS], it seems unlikely there are large quantities of these chemicals present.”
Profuse PFAS
Another possible explanation for the surprising results of Sun’s whale study could be that there’s just a lag; that is, novel PFAS will end up in Faroe Island pilot whales someday but haven’t yet. Chemicals that could eventually end up in the ocean may be temporarily trapped in soils or recycled back into terrestrial ecosystems via sea spray aerosols, for example.
“The delay we are seeing in the ocean response may in fact be [PFAS] precursors being retained in source zones,” Sunderland wrote in an email. These chemicals may be “taking a really long time to be transformed into more mobile compounds.”
In their pilot whale study, Sun and her colleagues modeled the transport of PFAS to the subarctic and found a 10- to 20-year lag existed between the production of a legacy PFAS compound and its detection in whale tissue. We’re still within that range for many novel PFAS. Sun said she would have expected them to show up in pilot whale tissue by now if they behaved like their legacy counterparts, though it’s possible that it has taken time for the volume of novel PFAS production to ramp up, increasing the time it would take for the substances to be detected in tissues.
The anomaly documented in the pilot whale study has led researchers to call for more investigation (and perhaps greater regulation) of novel PFAS. Credit: Bjarni Mikkelson
Still, the number of possible novel PFAS chemistries—again, there could be several million different compounds—makes it difficult to generalize how these new substances are, as a group, moving through the environment. “Because the exact structures of all [novel] PFAS remain unknown, some compounds may simply not be captured by the methods used,” Heidi Pickard, an environmental engineer at the consulting firm Ramboll and coauthor on the new whale study, wrote in an email.
Another reason novel PFAS are harder to study is that companies release lower concentrations of more kinds of the chemicals, rather than the “monstrously high” emissions of some legacy PFAS in the 1970s–1990s, noted Mabury, who was not involved in the new pilot whale study.
A New Regulatory Approach
According to Sun and Sunderland, cataloging differences between novel and legacy PFAS misses the broader point: We simply need to produce less PFAS. We’ve known for decades that PFAS harm human health, and some scientists have even argued that humans’ continual production and release of novel chemical compounds could drive Earth beyond a “safe operating space.”
“Researchers are critical for exposing the problem. But that, to me, is not the central issue here. The central issue here is a societal issue.”
Where scientists probe next may be less urgent than how policymakers decide to tackle the PFAS problem, Sunderland said: “Researchers are critical for exposing the problem. But that, to me, is not the central issue here. The central issue here is a societal issue.”
Chemical manufacturers are actively creating novel PFAS all the time. Kärrman, for example, has noticed patent applications for PFAS compounds with chemistries that “are nothing like we have seen before” that may start entering our environment in 5 or 10 years.
To Kärrman, that’s a reason for governments to push for chemical regulation based on properties such as persistence and bioaccumulation, rather than the chemical-by-chemical formula used in most countries, including the United States.
Such an approach has gotten traction in Europe via a proposal by the European Chemicals Agency to restrict the entire class of PFAS chemicals. The proposal is still under evaluation, and a final decision is expected by the end of the year.
In the United States, PFAS regulation and remediation are a key aspect of the Trump administration’s Make America Healthy Again movement, according to the EPA, and the federal government and some states already limit the concentrations of individual PFAS in drinking water. However, the EPA also said it planned to weaken some of those limits last year.
“We’re in a cycle of picking these regrettable alternatives [to legacy PFAS] and then figuring out that it was regrettable decades later,” Sunderland said. “We’re never going to catch up using this chemical-by-chemical approach.”
Citation: van Deelen, G. (2026), Chemical companies are churning out new PFAS. Where in the world are they ending up?, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260136. Published on 30 April 2026.
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The coal industry can damage human health in myriad ways via dangerous working conditions and harmful pollution. But the income opportunities offered by the industry can also provide much-needed stability for certain communities, such as those in Appalachia’s coal country.
“Being employed is good for your health, but environm
The coal industry can damage human health in myriad ways via dangerous working conditions and harmful pollution. But the income opportunities offered by the industry can also provide much-needed stability for certain communities, such as those in Appalachia’s coal country.
“Being employed is good for your health, but environmental pollution is bad for your health, and these two things are operating at the same time in some communities,” said Mary Willis, an epidemiologist at Boston University.
The industry, though, is changing. Total coal production in the United States peaked in 2008, and the number of miners has steadily dropped since then.
Total coal production peaked in the United States in 2008, after which the number of coal miners declined, too. Credit: Thombs et al.,2026, https://doi.org/10.1111/ruso.70034, CC BY 4.0
A new study coauthored by Willis and published in Rural Sociology delves into the effects of this decline on life expectancies across the United States and in Appalachia in particular. The results show that a disappearing coal mining industry has mixed effects on health, highlighting the importance of a “just transition”—a shift away from coal mining and toward clean energy that also prioritizes decent work opportunities for those left without a job.
“How do we balance these two conflicting priorities?” Willis said.
Delving into the Decline
Coal production and consumption are linked to many human health harms, including heart disease, asthma, lung cancer, mental illness, and more. But how those health impacts intersect with the broader economic effects of mining has not been well studied.
In the new study, the research team analyzed the effects of the declining industry through the lens of the social determinants of health, or how social structures influence health outcomes.
Researchers analyzed how coal mining impacts life expectancies via three pathways: production, mining labor time, and employment. Credit: Thombs et al., 2026, https://doi.org/10.1111/ruso.70034, CC BY 4.0
To study these effects, the team compared coal mining data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration to life expectancy data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington from 2012 to 2019. Life expectancy is a metric that can be responsive to subtle changes in the environment, Willis explained. For example, the decommissioning of a coal-fired power plant a few miles away from a community may not affect residents’ day-to-day life but probably affects the scale of life expectancy across the population.
In coal-producing counties across the United States, the average life expectancy was 1.6 years lower than that in non-coal-producing counties. But the declining coal industry had more nuanced impacts on health in Appalachian communities, the researchers found. As coal production fell and miner labor hours decreased, life expectancy increased. But as the number of jobs available decreased, life expectancy decreased, too.
The findings suggest that the employment and associated economic impacts of a waning coal industry harm health. Previous studies documented similar increases in mortality in other regions where the fossil fuel industry has declined. Such research has indicated that these increased mortality rates may be partially driven by “deaths of despair” from drug and alcohol use and suicide related to economic distress. The association of these factors with mortality rates in coal country, the authors suggest, may be an area for future study.
Understanding that coal mining is associated with some positive economic and health effects is “an important perspective for understanding the sector as a whole,” said Lucas Henneman, an environmental engineer at George Mason University who was not involved in the new study. “It’s a really interesting piece of work.”
“This is just a really complex story that hasn’t been told yet—putting health into the context of these just energy transitions,” Willis said.
The complex reality of the coal industry extends beyond Appalachia. Most of the pollution related to the coal industry consists of toxins released when coal is burned, meaning those who bear the brunt of coal’s health impacts may not be located where coal is mined, Henneman said.
In fact, a 2023 study by Henneman and others found that before 2009, a quarter of all air pollution–related deaths of people on Medicare were attributable to coal burning. From 2013 to 2020, that number dropped to 7%, alongside a drop in coal consumption. A complete picture of how the coal industry affects health should also consider how pollution travels beyond coal country—where it’s burned, how it’s transported in the air, and who ultimately breathes it in, he said.
A Just Transition
“The question is how to provide [jobs] in a way that provides the same level of stability, same kind of income benefits, and isn’t too much of a shock to [communities’] way of life or sense of identity.”
The economic activity of a mine, through direct employment as well as businesses reliant on the mine and miners, “chases away other opportunities,” making the mine the economic backbone of the area, said Jonathan Buonocore, an environmental health scientist at Boston University and a coauthor of the new study. The concept of a just transition aims to ensure that employment opportunities in the wake of the coal industry’s decline reach these communities.
“The question is how to provide [jobs] in a way that provides the same level of stability, same kind of income benefits, and isn’t too much of a shock to [communities’] way of life or sense of identity,” Buonocore said.
Citation: van Deelen, G. (2026), As the coal industry fades, life expectancies in coal country shift, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260134. Published on 30 April 2026.
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