Source: Earth’s Future

Mangrove forests straddle the edge of land and sea along some tropical and subtropical coastlines. These trees and shrubs have distinctive tangles of roots that trap sediment and produce organic matter, forming dense soils and efficiently storing carbon. Though mangroves cover only 1% of Earth’s surface, they store a whopping 15% of global ocean carbon in their trapped soils.

Their location along coastlines means mangroves are at the mercy of changing sea levels and sediment availability. Rising sea levels can drown mangroves or push them landward. At the same time, sediment supplies, belowground root growth, and organic matter accumulation can help build up mangrove soils, allowing forests to keep pace with sea level rise. So over time, will mangroves keep locking carbon into their soils, or will they start losing it?

Iwantoro et al. created a new model that examines the links between coastal processes to investigate vegetation growth and carbon accumulation in mangrove forests.

The researchers modeled a simplified tidal embayment to explore how different rates of sea level rise and sediment supplies would affect the mangroves. In these experiments, they found that carbon accumulation can increase at specific locations as waters rise because the increased water can lead to more mangrove growth—a result that matches existing data. However, when looking at landscape scales, they found sea level rise generally reduces total carbon sequestration through mangrove loss and soil erosion. The results showed that rising sea levels can alter mangroves from carbon storage sinks to carbon emitters.

The findings demonstrate that local trends in carbon sequestration may not be representative of larger-scale outcomes in mangrove forests. The study shows that understanding coastal landscapes as an interconnected system is crucial to understanding how mangroves can respond to climate and human-induced pressures, the researchers say. However, new assessments and approaches are needed to better understand future mangrove vulnerabilities. (Earth’s Future, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006984, 2026)

—Sarah Derouin (@sarahderouin.com), Science Writer

Citation: Derouin, S. (2026), Mangroves may be losing their grip on carbon storage as sea levels rise, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260144. Published on 5 June 2026.

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Source: Geophysical Research Letters

Atmospheric rivers act like “rivers in the sky,” shuttling intense bands of warm, heavy moisture from lower to higher latitudes. When an atmospheric river encounters cold air or mountainous terrain, the moisture it carries condenses and falls as heavy rain or snow. In Antarctica, the arrival of an atmospheric river can help build surface ice mass. Much of Antarctica is very dry; an atmospheric river can bring the moisture needed to potentially offset some ice loss.

Antarctica’s varied topography and dry conditions have made detecting atmospheric rivers over the continent challenging. Previous efforts to do so have suggested that atmospheric rivers contribute up to 30% of Antarctica’s total annual precipitation, but these methods may not be capturing the full picture of atmospheric river activity.

Takahashi et al. developed a new 3D atmospheric river detection algorithm to better capture how atmospheric rivers affect Antarctica’s complex terrain. Previous methods have mostly been 2D, meaning they do not accurately account for the vertical variations within an atmospheric river.

To evaluate the algorithm, the researchers applied it to two datasets: (1) daily snowfall totals measured during the 44th Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition (JARE44) at Dome Fuji from February 2003 to January 2004 and (2) the ERA5 (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis) dataset of daily weather patterns and conditions in Antarctica from 1979 to 2023.

The results of the study’s new algorithm showed 16 significant snowfall events during the JARE44 expedition, all of which were not detected by the older 2D method. The new 3D method identified 17 days of atmospheric river activity, which corresponded with 10 heavy snowfall events and accounted for approximately 40% of the total precipitation. Between 1979 and 2023, atmospheric rivers occurred about 10% of the time yet contributed 30%–60% of total precipitation in the Antarctic interior.

The 3D method in the new study suggests that atmospheric river events contribute a greater proportion of total snowfall than previously thought—between 30% and 90%, depending on the Antarctic region. The researchers also suggest that long-term changes in Antarctic snowfall are closely linked with the changes in atmospheric river activity. This connection is especially apparent in East Antarctica, where the link between snowfall increases and atmospheric rivers had not yet been clearly identified in previous studies. (Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL120986, 2026)

—Rebecca Owen (@beccapox.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Owen, R. (2026), Rivers in the Antarctic sky, captured in 3D, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260179. Published on 2 June 2026.

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Source: AGU Advances

Asteroids and planetesimals regularly bombarded Earth between about 4.6 billion and 3.5 billion years ago, in the Hadean and Archean eons. Because few rocks today are more than 4 billion years old, our understanding of the planet’s environment during that time is limited. However, samples from the Moon and its cratered surface hint at the period’s rate of cosmic impacts.

Early asteroid strikes were responsible for significant changes in Earth’s crust, which was primarily basalt-like at the time. The shock waves from collisions fractured the crust and increased porosity, allowing fluids and gases to move through the rocks. Prior research suggests that the resulting hydrothermal systems—such as the network of geysers around Yellowstone National Park—provided the environment for the origin and evolution of early life on Earth.

Alexander et al. explored how surface impacts during the Hadean and Archean allowed fluids and gases to maneuver through crustal environments. The authors built a large suite of impact simulations with the iSALE shock physics code, toggling parameters such as basalt crust thickness, geothermal gradients, and the presence or absence of a 5-kilometer-deep ocean. The simulations detailed how collisions on the surface shaped permeability in the crust. They then integrated a model for ancient bombardment data to understand the cumulative effects of repeated strikes over time.

The results indicate that prior to 4.3 billion years ago, impacts may have made the crust far more permeable, particularly in its top 8 kilometers. From the simulations, the authors inferred that the size of permeable regions was dependent on impact energy, and that geothermal gradients and rock composition in the crust affected the degree of fragmentation after impact. These porous domains formed potential settings for prebiotic chemistry within the early crust.

The research is the first comprehensive study of impact-generated permeability in early Earth’s outermost layer. The results provide a novel framework for evaluating how bombardment influenced hydrothermal circulation and geochemical alteration during the Hadean and Archean eons, with implications for our understanding of life’s origin and evolution in Earth’s earliest days. (AGU Advances, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025AV002097, 2026)

—Aaron Sidder, Science Writer

Citation: Sidder, A. (2026), Cosmic bombardment created potential for prebiotic chemistry, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260180. Published on 5 June 2026.

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Source: Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems

About 600 million years ago, the continents wandered Earth, yet to settle into their current positions. Their locations during the Ediacaran (as this time is called) have been tough for scientists to pin down. Earth’s magnetic field appears to have behaved in erratic ways, and applying standard techniques to calculate the continents’ positions based on records of the magnetic field yields implausible results. In particular, scientists debate the location of an ancient continent called Baltica, which is now part of Europe.

To investigate, Xue et al. traveled to Egersund, Norway, to collect samples of rock that formed during a time when Baltica’s crust was being pulled apart, allowing magma to percolate up from below. As that magma hardened, it recorded snapshots of Earth’s magnetic field, storing information about Baltica’s position in the process.

The results of studying these samples revealed a much more complex picture of the ancient rocks than the scientists initially envisioned. The rocks contained a messy mix of at least six magnetic signals. Several appeared to have formed when more modern geological processes altered the original rocks. Three distinct signals may have survived from the Ediacaran period, two of which diverge from the most plausible Ediacaran signal, which places Baltica near the equator. These conflicting signals further support the idea that Earth’s magnetic field was behaving strangely at the time, adding new complexity to an already puzzling picture.

On the basis of the new results, the researchers place the Egersund paleomagnetic pole at 20.8°N, 89.0°E during the Ediacaran—which diverges from previous results—and suggest that Baltica was located near the equator, adjacent to the ancient continent Laurentia, but rotated slightly clockwise relative to previous reconstructions. The study demonstrates the convoluted nature of the magnetic signals preserved in ancient rocks and the importance of dissecting those records into their constituent components. Doing so, the researchers suggest, can shed new light on the enigmatic behavior of Earth’s magnetic field during the Ediacaran. (Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GC012730, 2026)

—Saima May Sidik (@saimamay.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Sidik, S. M. (2026), Where was Baltica 616 million years ago?, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260124. Published on 5 2026.

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Source: AGU Advances

Models of glacial flow and retreat rely on estimates of glacial ice viscosity, the measure of the ice’s resistance to flow.

Ice viscosity is dependent on the stress applied to the glacier. Most ice sheet models use a standard equation to model ice flow that includes the variable n, called the stress exponent. A larger value of n means ice viscosity is more sensitive to changes in stress. For decades, glaciologists have, almost exclusively, used an assumed n value of 3 in the models they use to predict ice flow.

However, through recent experiments and observations, researchers have found that an n value of 4 may actually better represent the conditions of Earth’s ice sheets and glaciers.

Martin et al. created a model representation of the fast-retreating Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica. The ice sheet in their model had a true n value of 4, but they ran model projections using both n = 4 and n = 3. That allowed them to observe how their model would incorrectly predict glacial flow and resulting sea level change, given an incorrect n value.

The researchers modeled glacial retreat for 100 years under both equations with two different glacial melting scenarios. They then modeled glacial recovery for another 300 years. Under a moderate scenario, the n = 3 model underestimated glacial retreat by 18% and sea level change contributions by 21%. Under an extreme melting scenario, the model underestimated sea level contributions by 35%.

Notably, those disparities in glacial retreat and sea level change contribution predictions increased more than would be expected between the two scenarios, potentially increasing the level of uncertainty in current projections of sea level change. The researchers also suggest that incorrect n values may be mistakenly attributed to other physical processes in current ice sheet models.

The results could have far-reaching implications for predictions of future glacial melt and may prompt investigations into its effects on sea level, the authors say. (AGU Advances, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025AV001946, 2026)

—Madeline Reinsel, Science Writer

Citation: Reinsel, M. (2026), Glaciers may flow into the ocean more quickly than we think, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260107. Published on 14 April 2026.

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Source: Community Science

Heat, air pollution, and flooding can affect a city and the health of city residents. Yet few cities have a comprehensive network of weather stations providing accurate measurements of rainfall, humidity, and air temperature across different neighborhoods. Some of this information can be filled in by community members’ personal weather stations, like those connected through Weather Underground. But because of a lack of sensors and inconsistencies in data collection, these types of community networks are often not reliable on their own. Furthermore, most personal weather stations are located in higher-income neighborhoods, with very few in lower-income, underserved neighborhoods.

The same is true in Baltimore, where personal weather stations are more prevalent in higher-income, majority-white neighborhoods around and stretching north from the Inner Harbor but are lacking in lower-income and majority-Black neighborhoods to the west and east. Furthermore, only one National Weather Service sensor is present in the city itself, in the Inner Harbor, and another sensor is located about 12 kilometers (8 miles) away at Baltimore/Washington International Airport.

Waugh et al. describe a partnership between universities, state agencies, and Baltimore residents to build the Baltimore Community Weather Network (BCWN) that addresses the missing data coverage around the city. Unlike the patchwork of personal weather stations, community members participating in the BCWN are from underserved areas in the city and are actively involved in data collection and interpretation.

Weather stations are placed in open spaces to avoid obstacles like buildings or trees affecting measurements of temperature, rainfall, or wind. This careful placement is designed to ensure that the data collected are as close as possible to the conditions experienced by actual residents.

BCWN sites are carefully monitored and managed by community members. Baltimore residents are actively involved in data collection, weather station management, and decisionmaking with scientists and local organizations to help promote engagement, education, and community empowerment.

Because Baltimore is not the only U.S. city that has historically lacked accurate weather data coverage, the BCWN system could be applied to other locations—or even used to monitor other environmental exposures, such as air pollution, the authors say. (Community Science, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025CSJ000154, 2026)

—Rebecca Owen (@beccapox.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Owen, R. (2026), Fixing Baltimore’s unequal weather data coverage, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260108. Published on 13 April 2026.

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Source: Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems

This is an authorized translation of an Eos article. 本文是Eos文章的授权翻译。

大约 6 亿年前，各大洲在地球上漂移，尚未最终定格在现在的位置。在埃迪卡拉纪时期，各大洲的位置对于科学家来说一直难以确定。地球的磁场似乎表现得异常不稳定，而利用标准方法根据磁场记录来计算大陆位置的做法却得出了一些难以置信的结果。尤其是，科学家们对一块名为波罗的大陆的古老大陆的位置存在争议，这块大陆如今是欧洲的一部分。

为了探究这一问题，Xue等人前往挪威埃格尔松德，采集了波罗的大陆地壳被撕裂、岩浆从下方涌出时形成的岩石样本。随着这些岩浆冷却凝固，它们记录了地球磁场的瞬时变化，并在此过程中存储了有关波罗的大陆位置的信息。

对这些样本的研究结果揭示了远比科学家们最初设想的更为复杂的古代岩石图景。这些岩石中至少包含了六种不同的磁信号，构成了一幅复杂的混合图景。其中一些信号似乎是在更现代的地质过程改变原始岩石时形成的。埃迪卡拉纪时期可能保存了三种不同的信号，其中两种与将波罗的板块置于赤道附近的最合理的埃迪卡拉纪信号相悖。这些相互矛盾的信号进一步支持了地球磁场在当时异常活动的观点，使原本就扑朔迷离的图景更加复杂。

基于新的研究结果，研究人员将埃迪卡拉纪时期埃格尔松德古地磁极的位置确定在北纬20.8°、东经89.0°——这与之前的研究结果有所不同——并提出波罗的板块当时位于赤道附近，毗邻古老的劳伦古陆，但相对于之前的重建结果，其位置略有顺时针旋转。这项研究表明，保存在古代岩石中的磁信号极其复杂，并凸显了将这些记录分解成各个组成部分的重要性。研究人员认为，这样做可以为埃迪卡拉纪时期地球磁场的神秘行为提供新的线索。(Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GC012730, 2026)

—科学撰稿人Saima May Sidik (@saimamay.bsky.social)

This translation was made by Wiley. 本文翻译由Wiley提供。

Read this article on WeChat. 在微信上分享本文。

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Source: Global Biogeochemical Cycles

The biological carbon pump moves carbon from near the ocean’s surface to deeper regions, maintaining the upper ocean’s ability to absorb carbon from the atmosphere. One component of this system is driven by eddies, or relatively small-scale circular water currents powered by physical instabilities within the ocean. Previous estimates have suggested the eddy subduction pump may play a large role in moving carbon deep into the ocean, but the absence of global synthesis leaves the question open.

With data from a worldwide network of remote sensors, Keutgen De Greef et al. captured the eddy subduction pump in action around the globe. Their analysis shows that this pump carries less than 5% of the overall organic carbon transported by the biological carbon pump, meaning it’s of secondary importance to understanding ocean carbon flows.

The authors used data spanning 2010 to 2024 from 941 Argo floats drifting autonomously around the globe. They found 1,333 eddy subduction events below 200 meters. Adding up the contribution of a subset of these they identified as carbon subduction events, they estimated the eddy subduction pump exports 0.05 petagram (~50 million metric tons) of carbon per year from the ocean surface. Carbon subduction hot spots exist at mid- to high latitudes in the Southern Ocean and subpolar North Atlantic, both of which also exhibited a strong seasonal peak in spring. The authors also noted a correlation between eddy kinetic energy and physical subduction events (when surface waters sink below the mixed layer), providing insights into the mechanisms driving the eddy subduction pump

The study comes with some limitations, including the sparsity of data in ocean regions including much of the Pacific, the South Atlantic, and the southern Indian Ocean, which could lead to those regions’ contributions being underestimated. The Argo floats measure particulate carbon levels but are unable to effectively measure dissolved organic carbon, meaning some carbon export is being missed. But given the minimal contribution of the eddy subduction pump, these factors may not significantly change estimates of overall biological carbon subduction, the authors suggest. (Global Biogeochemical Cycles, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GB008912, 2026)

—Nathaniel Scharping (@nathanielscharp), Science Writer

Citation: Scharping, N. (2026), Eddy or not: Do eddies actually transport that much carbon?, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260119. Published on 17 April 2026.

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Source: Earth’s Future

The space industry is surging. In coming years, nearly 10,000 spacecraft are slated to launch into low-Earth orbit for a variety of purposes, such as global surveillance, space tourism, and satellite “megaconstellations” providing internet service.

Rocket engine exhaust, as well as the burnup of inactive satellites and rocket parts reentering Earth’s atmosphere, releases a suite of pollutants. These chemicals have long been considered to pose little threat to our climate, given the historically small size of the space industry. Now, the sector’s rapid growth will send its emissions skyrocketing—but scientists don’t yet have a clear picture of the environmental ramifications.

An analysis by Vliex et al. of rockets launched in 2022 revealed that spaceflight depletes the ozone layer and contributes to global warming, with a significant portion of this ozone loss attributable to nitrogen oxide emissions released by objects reentering Earth’s atmosphere.

The researchers calculated emissions from all 186 rockets launched in 2022, as well as all 472 objects—with a combined total mass of nearly 5,000 tons—that reentered the atmosphere that year. They conducted computational simulations of each launch’s trajectory and emissions at various altitudes up to 100 kilometers, and they calculated emissions released by object reentry. They also accounted for the effects of chemical reactions that occur in rocket exhaust plumes, which alter emissions’ chemical composition.

Incorporation of the calculated emissions into GEOS-Chem, a computational model of atmospheric chemistry, revealed their ozone-depleting and Earth-warming effects, with reentry emissions identified as playing a key role in ozone depletion. The researchers found that accounting for plume reactions reduced the estimated effects of spaceflight emissions, highlighting the value of considering plume chemistry in future assessments.

The analysis also underscored the varying effects of different rocket fuel types. Solid-state fuels, used recently in rocket boosters for NASA’s Artemis II mission to return astronauts to the Moon, appeared to cause the greatest amount of ozone depletion relative to propellant mass, while rocket-grade kerosene caused the greatest amount of warming.

On the basis of their findings, the researchers call for further research into reentry emissions and rocket plume chemistry as the space industry continues to expand and evolve. (Earth’s Future, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007795, 2026)

—Sarah Stanley, Science Writer

Citation: Stanley, S. (2026), Rocket launches and reentries harm Earth’s ozone layer, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260183. Published on 8 June 2026.

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Source: Water Resources Research

Evapotranspiration is a critical link between water, energy, and carbon. Scientists need to understand it well to accurately predict weather, droughts, streamflows, and even carbon emissions.

Eddy covariance towers, which measure changes in the atmosphere, are one of the primary ways that scientists measure evapotranspiration in an ecosystem. But these measurements often have a problem with energy imbalance, in which the measured fluxes of sensible heat and latent heat add up to less than they should. (Sensible heat refers to measurable temperature changes occurring via conduction or convection, whereas latent heat refers to water in the atmosphere changing phases.) There’s something missing—up to 30% of the system’s energy—in the math, and that can cause problems for later uses of the measurements, from forecasts to climate policies.

Scientists can adjust evapotranspiration measurements to try to correct for this problem, but a commonly used method to do so assumes that the Bowen ratio, or the ratio between sensible and latent heat, remains constant. However, this assumption may be flawed.

Raghav and Kumar present a new way of tackling this old problem without making assumptions about the Bowen ratio. It’s based on water use efficiency, which is how effectively plants use water to produce biomass.

The method first uses a suite of data from an eddy covariance tower to estimate evapotranspiration and energy balance through time. Then it derives the underlying water use efficiency potential while accounting for the influence of atmospheric dryness. In general, for a given vegetation type, this potential underlying efficiency is considered to be relatively stable over a growing season. The statistically smoothed potential underlying water use efficiencies is then compared to reference values derived during periods when the energy balance is well constrained. The ratio of the two is then used to correct evapotranspiration.

The new method is more consistent and more tied to the physics of plant physiology than current methods when results from each are compared, the authors found.

The new method is appropriate for use with any eddy covariance tower location or dataset because the authors used data from more than 250 towers around the world, in a range of ecosystem and climate types, to build their approach. However, they add, it may be less reliable in environments where evaporation dominates transpiration, such as wetlands. Nevertheless, the authors say, this work marks an important advance in measuring evapotranspiration, with broad implications for water management, agriculture, and adapting to climate extremes and drought. (Water Resources Research, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025WR042766, 2026)

—Rebecca Dzombak (@rdzombak.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Dzombak, R. (2026), Improving eddy tower evapotranspiration estimates, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260163. Published on 20 May 2026.

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Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth

Magnetic rocks with iron oxide concentrations act as natural chroniclers of Earth’s past continental movements. Using small samples of rocks, scientists can isolate magnetic grains that were frozen in orientation as the rock solidified. The magnetization of these grains acts as a miniature compass needle, pointing toward ancient magnetic poles. This same principle applies to extraterrestrial samples, such as meteorites and lunar rocks, which preserve evidence of the early solar nebula’s evolution.

However, traditional bottle cap–sized bulk samples often contain a mixture of reliable and unreliable magnetic signals, resulting in complex data that hamper interpretation. To improve accuracy, researchers have turned to magnetic microscopy. This technique maps magnetic fields at submillimeter to submicrometer scales in thinly sliced rock sections using advanced tools like a quantum diamond microscope (QDM) or a cryogenic superconducting quantum interference device microscope. By creating high-resolution maps of individual magnetic particles, scientists can reconstruct ancient fields with much higher precision while filtering out muddy signals from unstable grains.

Despite its potential, magnetic microscopy is an emerging field with its own set of uncertainties. To help constrain measurement data, Bellon et al. combined QDM observations with computer modeling to analyze how a magnetic particle’s stray field—the magnetic flux that leaks into the surrounding space—decays as it moves away from the source. They specifically investigated how a particle’s internal magnetic structure and external measurement noise affect the accuracy of these reconstructions.

The study found that in iron oxides, the smallest and most magnetically stable particles produce signals that are strong at the source but fade rapidly with distance. In contrast, larger particles produce signals that remain detectable farther away. This creates a challenge: The most stable grains for long-term geological data (the smallest ones) are the hardest to detect if the sensor is not perfectly positioned or if sensor interference is present.

By quantifying measurement error, the authors provide a road map for the field of micropaleomagnetism. Their findings could allow researchers to better account for uncertainty, leading to more robust reconstructions of Earth’s magnetic history and a deeper understanding of planetary evolution. (Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JB033133, 2026)

—Aaron Sidder, Science Writer

Citation: Sidder, A. (2026), Navigating the past with ancient stone compass needles, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260122. Published on 16 April 2026.

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Source: Earth’s Future

Hotter, drier conditions in the western United States have led to a rise in wildfire activity that has damaged or destroyed infrastructure, natural ecosystems, and entire towns across the region. As fires grow larger and more destructive, the cost of managing them rises as well.

Fire management agencies in the United States have been feeling the pressure. Between 2014 and 2023, fire management agencies across all levels of government experienced a 131% increase in total area burned and a 268% increase in total fire spending adjusted for inflation compared to the period between 1985 and 1994.

Today, federal agencies like the Department of the Interior (DOI) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service (USFS) continue to invest in aiding states and managing hazardous fuel growth on public land, as well as suppressing active fires. Policymakers and federal agencies alike must decide how to manage limited budgets while protecting people, property, and natural resources.

Prestemon et al. built statistical models based on historical data to examine the potential increase in spending by the DOI and the USFS between now and 2100. Their models link wildfire activity to climate variables such as temperature and water vapor deficit and then connect fire activity to suppression costs. To capture a range of possible future conditions on federal lands, the study predicts 10 fire and suppression spending scenarios by applying five different climate models to two different warming pathways (the moderate Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 scenario and the high-emissions RCP 8.5 scenario).

The results varied by region and scenario, but each of the 10 scenarios suggested a rise in area burned as well as inflation-adjusted fire suppression spending, with higher fire activity translating to higher costs. Projected changes in DOI and USFS land burned increased 80% by mid-century and 208% by late century.

By the middle of the century, both agencies are projected to see spending increases: about 0.65% per year for DOI spending and about 0.87% per year for USFS spending from 2020 to 2100. Although uncertainty increased with time and outcomes varied across climate models and warming pathways, the largest increases in both cost and wildfire activity were consistently projected for the northwestern United States. (Earth’s Future, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007985, 2026).

—Rebecca Owen (@beccapox.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Owen, R. (2026), As wildfires increase in the West, so does suppression spending, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260187. Published on 10 June 2026.

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