Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors.

Source: Water Resources Research

In the March 2026 issue of Water Resources Research, Zhang et al. [2026] interrogate conceptual hydrologic models’ ability to capture prolonged drought dynamics. The Australian Millennium drought serves as an example in the study. The results are quite sobering because the vast majority of more than 40 models fail. Unfortunately, calibration doesn’t generally help either and might result in massive overfitting. In essence, conceptual models miss deep aquifer storage components and associated hydrodynamic processes leading to a lack of time scales important in drought modeling. The study is a constructive reminder that model parsimony is not necessarily a good thing and that detailed representation of complex physical processes is part of hydrologic sciences.

Citation: Zhang, Z., Fowler, K., & Peel, M. (2026). Can conceptual rainfall-runoff models capture multi-annual storage dynamics? Water Resources Research, 62, e2025WR042226. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025WR042226

—Stefan Kollet, Editor, Water Resources Research

Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

“How about doing a moth survey at Sydenham?”

“A moss survey?” Asked Roberta Buchanan, local property steward for Sydenham River Nature Reserve, who didn’t quite hear me while we were walking outside.

“No, moths. Like a nocturnal equivalent to the butterfly survey. Who knows what we’ll find?”

It was 2023. I knew how unique the reserve was through my involvement with the annual butterfly and breeding bird surveys, and I suspected this oasis of biodiversity had fantastic potential for moths.

Compared to their diurnal counterparts, moths are relatively under-surveyed. Most species are nocturnal and inconspicuous, and documenting them requires specialized survey techniques – sheets and live traps baited with light or food. It also requires dedicated surveyors willing to stay up all night!

On the evening of June 24, 2024, a team of volunteers (Roberta Buchanan, Mark Buchanan, Paul Carter, Pete Chapman, Scott Connop, Deryl Nethercott, Dale Buchner, and myself) from Lambton Wildlife set up two light sheets and two traps across the Sydenham River Nature Reserve property. We documented hundreds of individual moths well into the night, and even more when we opened the traps the following morning. Then came the real fun: sorting through thousands of photos and identifying every moth.

Identifying all these moths is no trivial task. There are over 3,000 species of moths in Ontario, so field guides include only the most common species. Encountering moths that aren’t in the guide is common, and several groups of moths are notoriously hard to identify, even for experienced moth-ers. My approach is to photograph every moth, upload these photos to iNaturalist with my tentative ID, and wait for confirmation by a moth expert. For those who don’t know, iNaturalist is an online platform where you can post photos or recordings of an organism and crowdsource identifications from experts all over the world.

To keep track of the growing species list, I created an iNaturalist project which automatically consolidates all the moth observations from the property. The strength of this approach is that it stays current, as taxonomic changes and revised identifications will update the species list automatically. This makes it more reliable over time than a static checklist, which inevitably becomes outdated. As of 2026, we have documented 196 species of moth that first night, 13 of which are considered vulnerable at some level. After a second survey in May 2025, the total moth species count at Sydenham River Nature Reserve stands at 328, including 30 vulnerable species.

Fast forward to July 2025. I was checking my iNaturalist and saw there was a comment on one of my moth observations from the 2024 survey. Someone disagreed with my identification of what I believed to be a common white-fringed emerald, suggesting instead a species I hadn’t heard of – a Tuscarora emerald.

I quickly checked the range map, and my excitement spiked: this was a very rare moth, with only about fifty observations, all from the eastern United States – mostly localized populations in the Appalachians. If this was actually a Tuscarora emerald, it would likely represent the first record for Canada.

The identifier, Daniel Kluza (d_kluza on iNaturalist), a New Zealand-based biologist and iNaturalist taxonomy curator, pointed out a critical detail: our moth lacked the pure white spot on top of the abdomen which is present on the white-fringed emerald. This was a subtle difference, but potentially a decisive one. I needed a second opinion.

I reached out to Seabrooke Leckie, co-author of the Peterson Field Guide to Moths of Northeastern North America, and asked what she thought of it. Her response was unequivocal:

“I pulled out the Moths Of North America fascicle for this group to have a look at the official description of both species, Tuscarora and White-fringed, and I agree that this is Tuscarora. What a find!… Besides the presence/absence of the white spot at the base of the abdomen, the fascicle also says the white costa is very narrowly bordered inwardly by an apricot colour, and the AM and PM lines are wider than in White-fringed, both of which appear present here. There are no other eastern species that have both the white fringe and no markings on the abdomen.”

What makes this record especially meaningful is not just the rarity of Tuscarora emerald, but the way in which it was found. It was the result of methodical work by a team of volunteer community scientists, combined with the expertise of moth specialists. Not too long ago, access to such expertise was a significant roadblock, but it’s now easily facilitated through platforms such as iNaturalist.

We don’t know if this observation represents a previously overlooked population, a vagrant individual, or a northern range expansion driven by climate change. What is clear, however, is that protected places like Sydenham River Nature Reserve continue to demonstrate their conservation value in unexpected ways. When we take the time to look closely and collaboratively at under-surveyed groups like moths, we reveal hidden layers of biodiversity, uncovering the true richness of landscapes we thought we already knew.

Source: Water Resources Research

Wildfires can increase flooding risks in and downstream of burned areas by removing vegetation and disturbing hydrologic processes. As the climate changes, the severity of both wildfires and heavy rainfall events is increasing, meaning flooding is likely to become more severe in the near future. Better understanding how, and by how much, wildfires change flood risk is important for disaster and infrastructure planning for communities around the country.

Canham and Lane used streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water Information System and precipitation data from the NOAA Analysis of Record for Calibration product to identify storms and quantify their effects across seven burned watersheds in the western United States.

To make the most of the limited data on flooding in the years following wildfires, the researchers created a paired-storms framework: They identified postfire peak flows (PFPFs), defined as the five highest peak flows within 3 years of a wildfire across seven watersheds. Then, for each precipitation event causing a PFPF, they looked for storms with similar characteristics (or paired storms) that occurred before the wildfire. Storm characteristics used for pairing included the season in which the storm occurred, recent precipitation, and precipitation depth, duration, and peak intensity.

The researchers found significantly elevated peak flows after wildfires in many cases, underlining the risks to communities following wildfires and validating their approach for use elsewhere.

Altogether, the authors found 26 PFPF events, including 20 with paired storms occurring before wildfires. For 75% of the postfire storms, their peak flows were 2 or more times greater than prefire peak flows. PFPFs were most likely to happen in the first year after a wildfire and typically occurred following storms that were centered upstream of the watershed centroid, were uniform in shape, and fully covered the watershed and burned area, the authors reported. They also found some evidence that the first storm in the year immediately following a fire has a higher-than-expected chance of producing a PFPF.

Future work could look more deeply at the characteristics of storms occurring over burned areas, such as storm direction and watershed recovery, and could apply the automated methods to more burned watersheds and storm events to enhance the robustness of the work, the authors say. (Water Resources Research, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025WR040693, 2026)

—Nathaniel Scharping (@nathanielscharp), Science Writer

Citation: Scharping, N. (2026), How wildfires worsen flood risk, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260133. Published on 30 April 2026.

Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Exclusive: Cancer charity says dispelling falsehoods gleaned from social media is now routine task for clinicians

Social media misinformation about the use of dietary supplements such as turmeric, St John’s wort and magnesium is now so common that dispelling online claims has become a routine part of NHS clinicians work.

Two out of five frontline health workers say they encounter patients who raise inaccurate or misleading information about supplements at least once a week.

clgkhkrf54 posted a photo:

Maya Classic Period (550-900 AD) rare polychrome pottery from the Jay I. Kislak collection, Library of Congress, Geography and Map Division. See long file names for additional information.

clgkhkrf54 posted a photo:

Maya Classic Period (550-900 AD) rare polychrome pottery from the Jay I. Kislak collection, Library of Congress, Geography and Map Division. See long file names for additional information.