California Democrats’ bid to retake control of Congress through redistricting efforts to include more of their voters in heavily Republican areas is running into its first barrier in a race in a district east of Los Angeles. Preliminary counts put two Republican candidates in the top two spots, which would set up a contest between them for the seat in the November midterm elections. In other races that Democrats consider key, their candidates have advanced to a November runoff.

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James Handy, an 81-year-old New York actor who had small roles in films such as Jumanji and the more recent Top Gun: Maverick, was killed outside his Los Angeles home. The confessed killer is his girlfriend’s son, a 44-year-old man named Michael Gledhill, who remains jailed on $2 million bail.

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In Love Letters, Hilary Pecis captures the mundane moments and under-appreciated views of daily life. The Los Angeles-based artist presents a suite of new acrylic paintings in her signature saturated style, focusing on snippets of a backyard pool, the corner of a studio worktop, and a friendly picnic complete with a radiant strawberry cake.

Pecis prefers to work from photos and translates singular moments onto linen. Utilizing a uniform opacity in her paints, she incorporates both comparable and exaggerated colors and affords particular attention to texture and pattern. Frilly fronds on a plant, light radiating off the water’s surface, and the rough texture of a woven tablecloth each evidence the artist’s meticulous process.

Love Letters opens at David Kordansky Gallery in Los Angeles on May 16 and runs through June 20. Until then, explore more of Pecis’ work on Instagram.

Do stories and artists like this matter to you? Become a Colossal Member today and support independent arts publishing for as little as $7 per month. The article Hilary Pecis Paints Saturated Snapshots of West Coast Life appeared first on Colossal.

When Craig Hubbard moved from Brooklyn to Venice Beach in 2013, he had an established creative career as an animator and comic book colorist, but it had been a long time since he had picked up a camera. The golden hour hues of the West Coast’s legendary sunsets reacquainted him with lens-based work, and he began documenting the areas he frequented in his spare time. “As an avid surfer and former skater, I gravitate toward skateparks and water,” he tells Colossal. And with the ocean, of course, come the waves.

Venice Beach is a funky, coastal Los Angeles neighborhood that has retained its laid-back, surf-loving vibe despite new developments. Surfers await swells in areas like the Breakwater and the Venice Beach Pier, and Hubbard heads out with his own board and his camera. “Dusk, dawn, and fog banks activate my senses,” he says. Tapping into his enthusiasm for graphic design, he focuses on bold outlines and forms, high contrast, and the energy of directionality and motion. “Nature ultimately does the heavy lifting, though,” he adds.

Hubbard’s photos are ethereal and cinematic, with surfers and wave crests illuminated by the early morning sun or backdropped by the marine layer. Sometimes the intense spray, curl, shoulder, or lip become the sole subjects of the portraits. “The water is the muse and artist,” Hubbard recently told an interviewer. “I’m just a biased translator and documentarian. Lastly, my ego relaxes in the ocean; the need to peacock recedes. This is where my best work comes from—or favorite, I should say.”

Follow Hubbard’s work on Instagram and see some of his videos on YouTube.

Do stories and artists like this matter to you? Become a Colossal Member today and support independent arts publishing for as little as $7 per month. The article Pacific Surf Takes Center Stage in Craig Hubbard’s Dreamy Photos appeared first on Colossal.

Esteban had never heard of the prison gang Los Paisas until he was held at the Adelanto immigrant detention center in California. As soon as he passed through the bars of his housing unit, other detainees made it clear he had to choose: join them or join another group made up of Russians, Indians, Chinese, and Armenians. He understood that doing neither would leave him defenseless, so he accepted. There was no initiation ritual and he was not asked to swear allegiance. The rules were simple: protect your own from violent people, settle internal disputes, and keep a measure of order in a place where authority often seemed insufficient. Over the months, deportations and transfers took away people he knew. They were replaced by newcomers, some of whom did not understand the dynamics of detention. He had to teach them. Before he knew it, Esteban was among the most long-standing members and, without seeking the role, he became one of the leaders of the gang.

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Source: AGU Advances

Across the western United States, wildfires are increasing in size and intensity. As the climate continues to warm, more extreme wildfires will reshape landscapes and pose a growing risk to human health and natural ecosystems throughout the West.

Climate models, used to predict other effects of climate change, are unable to directly simulate wildfires. Instead, researchers link previously burned areas to climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, drought, and evaporation, then apply those relationships to future climate projections.

Many recent studies have connected higher vapor pressure deficit (VPD)—a measure of atmospheric dryness—to more area burned in previous fires. VPD increases as the temperature rises, so models that rely on it generally predict an increase in wildfire activity as the climate warms.

Cheng et al. raise questions about the role VPD plays in modeling wildfire, suggesting that VPD is a poor measure of fuel dryness at larger scales and overestimates potential burned areas under significant warming conditions. Instead, researchers suggest soil moisture could be a more reliable indicator of fuel dryness and lead to more moderate projections of wildfire increases.

The researchers looked at five forested ecoregions in the western states. Using the Western US MTBS-Interagency wildfire dataset from 1984 to 2020 combined with climate data (temperature, VPD, and soil moisture), the researchers analyzed drivers of the area burned from May through October. They connected this information with output from climate models to look at future burn potential.

VPD-based wildfire predictions increase sharply under warming conditions. These predictions showed that under 3°C of average global warming, 16 times as much land would burn by the end of the century, compared to historical levels. Under 4°C of warming, up to 66 times more land would burn by the end of the century. This “truly massive” increase, the authors say, would mean fires consuming vegetation almost as soon as it regrows.

Soil moisture, on the other hand, provides a more moderate, though still concerning, picture. Under the same warming scenarios, soil moisture changes would lead to an increase in burned area of only 2–3 times that of the historical period. The researchers argue that projections relying on VPD severely exaggerate wildfire risk. (AGU Advances, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026AV002350, 2026)

—Rebecca Owen (@beccapox.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Owen, R. (2026), How much will western wildfires worsen under warming?, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260147. Published on 15 May 2026.

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Source: AGU Advances

Urbanization, climate change, and fire suppression practices are contributing to increased wildfire risk at the densely populated wildland-urban interface. These factors make fires more unpredictable and harder to manage. In January 2025, this was made devastatingly clear in Los Angeles, when massive wildfires engulfed entire hillsides and canyons, destroying neighborhoods and damaging surrounding ecosystems.

The Mediterranean climate region of California, which stretches up most of the state’s coastline, is a naturally fire-prone landscape because its dry conditions support vegetation growth and also allow for fire to spread easily. As wildfires become more intense, better modeling and understanding of their drivers is crucial in efforts to predict risk.

Ward-Baranyay et al. looked at three of the January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires by analyzing preburn conditions, such as fuel characteristics, topography (including elevation and slope), and wind speed. Satellite observations gathered from the Ecosystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) and the Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT)—precursors to a recently announced NASA mission, the Explorer for Artemis Geology Lunar and Earth (EAGLE)—provided detailed information about the vegetation’s condition before the fires began. The researchers then built a random forest regression model to predict burn severity based on these conditions, ultimately demonstrating that prefire fuel conditions were a key driver of the destructive wildfires’ immediate effects on wildlands.

The model used in the study was able to accurately capture about 60% of the patterns in burn severity. It was most accurate for the Palisades and Hughes fires, but less accurate for the Eaton Fire. This discrepancy could be because the area burned by the Eaton Fire was more topographically variable, meaning its burn severity drivers may not have been fully captured by the model, the researchers suggest. Vegetation type was also a strong performance indicator: Terrain with shrub or scrub cover, the dominant vegetation type, offered the most accurate predictions for burn severity. The burn patterns of forests and other landscape types were less accurately captured.

Fuel conditions emerged as the dominant driver of burn severity, more so than topography or weather. In particular, how abundant, wet, dry, or stressed vegetation is can hint at how severe future fires may be. Tracking and monitoring these fuel conditions, researchers suggest, may be a way to monitor wildfire hazard in California and other fire-prone regions. (AGU Advances, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025AV002179, 2026)

—Rebecca Owen (@beccapox.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Owen, R. (2026), Want to predict wildfire severity? Look to the state of vegetation, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260130. Published on 4 May 2026.

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Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

California is no stranger to the hot, dry summer weather that makes wildfires more likely. But wildfire season in the state is now stretching into the heart of winter, when it has historically been protected by cool, wet weather. In January 2025, Southern California experienced some of the deadliest and costliest wildfires in the state’s history.

Now, a new study published in Nature Communications shows that the climatic changes that increase the risk of these winter wildfires could be driven by low autumn snow levels thousands of miles away, in western Eurasia. The authors said that tracking snowfall in Eurasia could help forecast winters in California that will have higher chances of wildfires.

The researchers were motivated by the catastrophic 2025 wildfires to search for climate drivers of winter wildfire conditions in California. First, they looked for correlations between winter wildfires and ocean temperatures, especially La Niña events that are associated with drier-than-average conditions in California. They also examined variability in sea ice, which can affect global weather patterns. But they saw only weak connections.

Compared to oceans and sea ice, the influence of snow cover on global weather patterns is less studied, said Shineng Hu, a climate scientist at Duke University and lead author of the paper. But another climate researcher in Hu’s lab, Shizuo Liu (first author of the study), had previously studied the connection between snow cover and weather patterns and suggested the team look for connections between snow and fires. That’s when they found significant correlations between the winter wildfires in California and low snow cover in western Eurasia.

“When I saw the result, I was suspicious,” Hu said, “because we all know that correlation doesn’t mean causality.” But they ran hundreds of climate model simulations reducing snow cover in Eurasia and saw an increased probability of winter fires in California. “At that point, we were pretty much convinced that there could be something interesting happening over there,” Hu said.

Propagating Pressure

The scientists determined that this intercontinental link starts because the land absorbs more energy when snow cover is low, disturbing the atmosphere above it. This disturbance, like a stone thrown into water, generates large waves of air called Rossby waves that travel eastward along the jet stream across the Pacific Ocean. The Rossby waves drive the formation of a high-pressure zone that creates the hot, dry, windy conditions conducive to wildfires.

“I’m glad to see this group saying snow can do something similar to what ocean temperature anomalies can do,” said Judah Cohen, a climatologist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who was not involved in the study but has also studied the links between snow in North America and Eurasia. “I’ve been surprised by how important this mechanism is for U.S. weather in the winter and how little there is about it in the literature.”

But Cohen suggested the study tells only part of the story. In North America, dry winters in the west are paired with wet, cold winters in the east. The same is true in Eurasia, and according to Cohen’s past research, when snow levels are low in western Eurasia but high in eastern Eurasia, a temperature and pressure gradient is created across the continent. The energy released as the atmosphere works to equalize that pressure drives the Rossby waves. Cohen said the disparity between snow levels in eastern and western Eurasia would likely strengthen the Rossby waves and then the warming in California. “If all of Eurasia [had] below normal [snow levels], I don’t think you could easily excite this wave energy that propagates across the hemisphere.” He also stressed that Rossby waves don’t just travel eastward. They also travel upward into the stratosphere, where they bounce back down over North America and intensify the high pressure over the western United States.

Both Cohen and the study authors insisted that many other factors influence whether wildfires ignite in winter. “This is just one missing gap that people didn’t even realize. We want to add that to the table,” said Hu. But monitoring snow levels in Eurasia could offer signs of bad wildfire winters to come. The January 2025 Southern California fires were preceded by low snow levels in November and December in Eurasia, Hu said. “So there’s a 1‑month lag, which gives us some hope that we can use that for prediction.”

—Andrew Chapman (@andrewchapman.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Chapman, A. (2026), Low snow in Eurasia linked to wildfires in California, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260138. Published on 13 May 2026.

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Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Hilton has worn many hats since he arrived in the US 14 years ago, and now faces steep odds of defeating Democratic Xavier Becerra in November

After years of working in the background of Conservative party politics in Britain, Steve Hilton has passed the first major test as his own front man: clinching a spot in the November run-off to become California’s next governor.

The outcome was far from a given under California’s open primary system, which rewards the top two vote winners regardless of party, and the particular challenge of running as a Republican in one of the most solidly blue states in the country.

“Future winters promise less snow, more rain. Nobody’s prepared.” So proclaims the title of a recent article in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America that frames adaptation to snow loss as the “million-dollar question” facing the western United States.

Declining snowfall—and snowmelt—affects ecosystems, urban and rural water supplies, hydropower, recreation, tourism, and agriculture. As the largest sectoral consumer of fresh water globally, agriculture is particularly vulnerable to snow loss.

Much of the U.S. West faces one of the worst snow years on record, and the statistics on future conditions feel dire. Up to 40% of the water demand for agriculture in the region is likely to go unmet as it gets warmer and less snowy. Similar scenarios are shaping up elsewhere around the world, including southern Europe, high-mountain and Central Asia, western Russia, and the southern Andes [Qin et al., 2020].

In response, water managers have developed a range of approaches for adapting to snow loss: infrastructure-based approaches like managed aquifer recharge, nature-based solutions such as forest management and beaver dam analogues, demand-side approaches like multibenefit land repurposing, and polarizing supply-side approaches like reservoir expansion and cloud seeding (Figure 1).

However, efforts to identify which of these strategies to implement for different drainage basins, or watersheds, using the variety of available approaches seem to fall into one of two traps: either searching for unrealistic one-size-fits-all panaceas [Ostrom, 2007] or treating every basin as unique, which is costly and inefficient.

Importantly, continuing along this trajectory means that we’re on track to offset only about a third of global climate-induced crop yield losses by 2100. For the western United States, previous work has estimated cumulative economic losses from declining snowfall of hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars while noting that rational adaptation decisions are hampered by the lack of financial analyses of the importance of snow [Sturm et al., 2017].

We thus suggest that the “trillion-dollar question” isn’t how to adapt but, rather, where existing strategies may make the most—and fastest—difference to offset projected losses. Answering this question requires an approach that matches strategies to the contexts where they are more likely to succeed—one that treats basins as neither uniform nor unique.

A Mismatch in Research and Operational Scales

Physical scientists tend to look at snow loss as a basin-scale problem, in part because this view aligns with hydrologic boundaries. However, as our colleague, applied economist Joey Blumberg, explains, “county lines were not drawn to follow watersheds, and rivers do not conform to political borders, creating a patchwork of mismatched boundaries.”

Scientists have long emphasized that mitigating climate change requires us to “think globally, assess regionally, act locally.” And in 1992, the authors of the Dublin Principles reasoned that moving the needle on “wicked water problems” requires targeting decisionmaking at the “lowest appropriate level,” where stakeholders can collaborate most effectively.

The challenge is that “local” isn’t a single, consistent unit. We recently explored the lowest appropriate level concept for agricultural water management in the U.S. West by defining local operational contexts on the basis of intermediaries such as irrigation districts, water conservancies, and mutual water companies that connect individual farmers to their hydrology [Gordon et al., 2024].

Working at this scale, we found one-size-fits-all strategies often don’t hold up, even within the same hydrologic basin [Gordon et al., 2024; Boisramé et al., 2026]. In the Upper Colorado River Basin, for example, expanding reservoir storage could buffer agriculture in northeastern Utah against declining snowpack, but the same strategy may fail miles away in southwestern Wyoming, where a thirstier atmosphere may make it harder to refill existing reservoirs.

However, collecting detailed local-scale information for just 13 of the roughly 2,600 operational contexts nationwide took almost 3 years of searching websites, reading working papers, and calling water managers.

Scaling this approach across the entire western United States is understandably overwhelming. We need a more systematic approach to help managers identify which strategies could work most effectively, and where.

A Diagnostic for Agriculture and Snow Loss

Ostrom [2007] argued that complex systems, such as Western agriculture, “are partially decomposable in their structure.” This insight is woven into archetype analysis, an approach for identifying recurrent patterns across otherwise diverse systems.

Like workplace assessments—which are genuinely useful, albeit imperfect, tools for understanding successful management styles—archetypes draw on qualitative, quantitative, or hybrid approaches to group diverse operational contexts on the basis of shared characteristics [Sietz et al., 2019]. These groupings enable systematic knowledge transfer about, for example, how management strategies that work in one context can also guide adaptation elsewhere.

“Researchers can empirically derive building blocks or components that comprise archetypes to represent key features of a system,” explains Elizabeth Koebele, who studies urban water sustainability [Garcia et al., 2019] and has begun applying archetypes in that context. However, she notes, these building blocks “vary based on the system context, available data, and study goal.”

We propose three main characteristics that interact to define operational contexts in snow-dependent agriculture in the western United States: physical constraints, governance systems, and human behavior. Physical constraints, including biophysical setting, infrastructure, and climate, determine available water supplies. Governance capacity relative to governance complexity shapes how those supplies are allocated across competing uses. Human behaviors influence both water demand and how users respond to supply conditions and governance rules.

Using these characteristics to establish archetypes of water management contexts could define a path forward for operationalizing an approach to accelerate successful adaptations to declining snowpacks in the West.

Constraining How Snowmelt Becomes Water Supply

Physical constraints stem from biophysical processes that influence how, when, and how much snow becomes streamflow; infrastructure that stores and conveys water; and hydrologic and climatic uncertainties about future supplies. These constraints can vary substantially from basin to basin.

Consider the Walker River Basin and California’s San Joaquin Valley, both of which rely on Sierra Nevada snowpack but have different biophysical settings. In some parts of the central Sierra, forest management can reduce wildfire risk and increase streamflow by up to 14% during low-snow years. Elsewhere, however, water made available by forest management may be consumed by remaining vegetation, limiting downstream gains.

These biophysical differences interact with uses of built infrastructure, including irrigation systems, reservoir outlets, and canals, to determine how and when water is stored and released. As temperatures warm and snowmelt declines, officials in both the Walker River and San Joaquin Valley basins must increasingly manage for a wider range of extremes, including “cold-water droughts.” However, the infrastructure to manage these trade-offs through reservoir storage and operations that balance agricultural deliveries with aquatic habitat needs is more developed in the highly managed San Joaquin than in the Walker.

Layered on top of biophysical and infrastructural constraints are climatic and hydrological uncertainties, such as whether snow loss will lead to more evapotranspiration and less streamflow. These uncertainties complicate management decisions based on cost-benefit modeling of individual strategies: Should districts expand reservoir storage if precipitation is predicted to increase or decrease depending on the model? Frameworks like Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty emphasize the need to select strategies that are robust across many possible futures.

Thankfully, measuring physical constraints on snowmelt at basin scales—a means, along with improved modeling, to reduce hydroclimatic uncertainties—is becoming more feasible today with newly developed tools. Water managers can turn, for example, to databases like the U.S. Geological Survey’s ResOpsUS [Steyaert et al., 2022], which catalogs historical reservoir operations across the contiguous United States, and to publicly available hydrologic projections such as those from Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) ensemble.

Governance Controls Supply Allocations

We frame governance around capacity and complexity. Capacity in this context is the ability of stakeholders “to mobilize resources in order to make equitable and fair decisions around shared challenges,” according to governance scholar Gina Gilson. Complexity refers to the number and intricacy of jurisdictions, authorities, regulations, and stakeholders involved. As governance complexity increases, the effectiveness of adaptation strategies becomes more sensitive to capacity constraints, particularly regarding timescales and funding.

For example, infrastructure in the Walker is controlled locally by a single water district, and jurisdictional coordination involves two states and the Walker River Paiute Tribe. Coordination on water management is never simple, but fewer jurisdictions generally means faster decisionmaking and clearer authority, allowing the single water district to implement strategies like multibenefit land repurposing more readily. Such implementations, in turn, enable reduced agricultural water use, directly supporting restoration of Walker Lake and recovery of endangered species.

The San Joaquin Valley is vastly different in scale and complexity, covering eight California counties, one of which alone has 22 water districts and seven cities. Following the passage of the state’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act, water users in the basin formed more than 120 groundwater sustainability agencies. Agricultural water management thus involves overlapping federal and state systems that operate under different rules, contracts, and regulatory requirements. While land repurposing programs can be implemented, more substantial capacity, time, and resources are typically needed to do so.

Emerging efforts like the Western States Water Data Access and Analysis Tool (WestDAAT) and the Harmonized Database of Western U.S. Water Rights make it easier to assess governance in a basin by standardizing data about rules, regulations, and water rights across states. Combined with mapping of irrigation service areas and water transfers [Siddik et al., 2023], these resources help stakeholders identify the jurisdictions involved, how authority is distributed, and what coordination mechanisms exist for agricultural water management.

Human Behavior Shapes Demand Responses

Once snowmelt reaches water users, behavioral dynamics—how people respond to crises, policies, and changing conditions—determine how effectively management strategies achieve desired results.

Water demand is influenced by consumption choices and by economic, political, and cultural factors. It is also influenced by factors that typical hydrologic models rarely account for, including social structure, social memory, and affluence. More affluent users are less likely to modify their behavior to reduce water use under conditions of scarcity.

The dynamics of water demand in the South Platte River Basin, for example, are especially complex, as they are balanced across cities, agriculture, and ecosystems across parts of Colorado, Nebraska, and Wyoming. Water prices in the basin’s Big Thompson project, a federal water diversion system in northern Colorado, jumped from $1,500 per acre-foot in 1990 to more than $30,000 in 2018, driven by economic factors that resulted in cities owning 70% of water originally intended for agriculture.

Even with reliable projections of future climate and water supply, carefully planned strategies can be overwhelmed by economic and behavioral factors, resulting in transfers and reallocations of water. What’s more, behavioral responses to adaptation strategies can paradoxically increase demand when users perceive that scarcity problems are solved.

The “reservoir effect” occurs when water security perceptions encourage expansion of water-intensive activities [Di Baldassarre et al., 2018]. Similarly, the irrigation efficiency paradox shows how efficiency gains can lead to expanded production and reduced return flows (how much irrigation water returns to streams and aquifers) downstream [Grafton et al., 2018].

Conceptual frameworks, models, and global case studies have all been used as approaches to study the effects of human behavior on hydrology. With sufficient training data, we believe tools like machine learning could be used to further explore how behaviors influence adaptation and to anticipate shifts as snow loss continues.

Archetypes in Practice

By evaluating how physical factors, governance systems, and human behavior shape outcomes across places like the Walker, South Platte, and San Joaquin basins, researchers and practitioners can establish archetypes to help identify patterns in what strategies are most effective in different places and assess how to transfer lessons from one setting to another (Figure 2).

The Walker River Basin exemplifies an archetype common to agriculturally dominated headwaters in the western United States with low governance complexity (few jurisdictions), adequate capacity (resources), low behavioral complexity (more predictable and unified user groups), and substantial physical constraints (significant future snow loss and limited infrastructure for water storage and supplementation).

With this profile, the Walker is an ideal testing ground for evaluating how effectively different strategies offset changes in snowmelt. Does cloud seeding increase snowpack? Could beaver dam analogues—a nature-based solution reminiscent of Idaho Fish and Game’s mid-20th century effort to parachute beavers into the wilderness—meaningfully increase water retention? Could multibenefit land repurposing buffer people and ecosystems against supply volatility while restoring ecosystem functionality?

The value of organizing operational contexts by archetypes is that each context need not be treated as unique. Lessons learned from the Walker could be systematically transferred to other areas with similar characteristics and could be incrementally tested in others.

The South Platte has physical constraints similar to Walker’s but features greater governance complexity because of multiple interstate compacts, as well as greater behavioral complexity. Modeling analyses indicate that demand-side strategies could adapt to more volatile water supply in the South Platte [Gharib et al., 2023]. But implementing them requires balancing perspectives from both agricultural and urban water users—a behavioral dynamic absent in Walker.

Crop switching to cultivate higher-value crops on less acreage could reduce water use. However, options for what crops can be grown where are constrained by factors like elevation and climate. Even where feasible, new crops would require investments in education, new infrastructure, risk management, and agronomic knowledge.

Through iterative expansion and testing, broad archetypes like “high behavioral complexity” could be specified to reflect dynamics like rural-urban competition or concerns around buy-and-dry economics. Archetypes may also point to contexts where governance complexity signals that decisionmaking is occurring above the lowest appropriate level.

The San Joaquin, with its extremely complex governance involving numerous local, state, and federal agencies managing surface and groundwater, is one potential example. Recognizing this pattern can help identify where substantial resources and long timelines may be required to implement programs (e.g., LandFlex) requiring legislative authorization, multiagency coordination, and stakeholder engagement. It may also signal the need to identify smaller operational contexts within larger settings so implementations proceed more rapidly.

Operationalizing Archetypes from Diagnosis to Action

Developing a systematic approach to match adaptation strategies with areas where they are most likely to succeed in operation is only a first step. Applying diagnostics without mechanisms to implement new strategies is often insufficient to drive timely action.

An instructive precedent of success in water quality management comes from the 1970s. By then, pollution controls on factories had improved compared with the early 20th century, yet water quality in surface waters across the country still declined because of pollution in agricultural runoff. The breakthrough came with the EPA’s total maximum daily load (TMDL) program, which created a structured process that set measurable goals for reducing pollution and assigned responsibility for meeting those goals to the sources of the pollution, allowing for local control over adaptation.

Archetypes could play a similar role in facilitating beneficial snow-loss adaptations, and a structure like the TMDL program could start by assessing supply-demand risks across operational areas, setting performance targets such as reservoir reliability and shortage frequency, and then using the diagnostic to identify which strategies fit each archetype. Results and lessons could be shared region-wide, while implementation would remain locally driven.

This suggestion is, emphatically, not a prescription for specific policy mechanisms. But it serves as a reminder that—just as few of us engage with workplace assessments or change behavior on the basis of their results without organizational support—archetypes will need to be paired with implementation structures to translate diagnosis into action.

Beyond Silver Bullets

Nearly 20 years ago, Ostrom [2007] warned against seeking panaceas for complex environmental problems. There is no silver bullet for snow loss or single answer to our trillion-dollar question, but one path forward for sustaining complex Western ecosystems lies in developing archetypes of different types of basins.

A small irrigation district, for example, wouldn’t need to independently test every strategy in Figure 1 or develop complex decision support tools when a similar archetype already evaluated which strategies work under comparable governance, behavioral, and physical conditions.

Critically, these archetypes can be developed and refined by managers and scientists to capture more nuanced realities. Physically constrained systems, for example, could include areas facing high future uncertainty or limited reservoir flexibility. Governance and behavioral dimensions could likewise evolve to represent contexts where subsidies lead to incoherent incentives or where cultural norms link water use to local identities and traditions.

Like workplace assessments, the goal isn’t to diminish unique personalities but to work with them more strategically. Archetypes can show where we don’t need to reinvent the wheel to adapt and where the wheel might need to be tweaked. By leveraging collective knowledge and learning across regions facing similar challenges, rather than crafting new solutions basin by basin, we can reduce the time and resources needed to implement equitable and sustainable adaptation solutions.

Acknowledgments

This work is supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under grants 1828902 and OIA-2148788. Where We Live is funded by a grant from NSF’s Established Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR) RII Track-2 program and features partnerships across the University of Idaho (award 2316126); the University of Nevada, Reno (award 2316127); and the University of South Carolina (award 2316128). Work was also supported by internal funds from the Division of Hydrologic Resources at the Desert Research Institute.

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Author Information

Beatrice L. Gordon (beatrice.gordon@dri.edu), Gabrielle F. S. Boisrame, Christine M. Albano, and Rosemary W. H. Carroll, Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nev.; and Adrian A. Harpold, University of Nevada, Reno

Citation: Gordon, B. L., G. F. S. Boisrame, C. M. Albano, R. W. H. Carroll, and A. A. Harpold (2026), Archetypes could accelerate agricultural adaptation to less snowpack, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260184. Published on 9 June 2026.

This article does not represent the opinion of AGU, Eos, or any of its affiliates. It is solely the opinion of the author(s).

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