Japan fired surface-to-ship missiles and sank an old warship in waters between the Philippines and Taiwan as part of major military exercises that include US forces, angering China.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has accelerated Japan’s shift towards a more muscular defence policy, further casting off — with US encouragement — Tokyo’s pacifist stance in place since the end of World War II.

The firing on Wednesday of two Type-88 missiles formed part of exercises in the Philippines between US, Australian, Filipino and Japanese troops as well as contingents from France, New Zealand and Canada.

Japanese and Philippine defence ministers observed the launch in the northern province of Ilocos Norte, some 400 kilometres (250 miles) from Taiwan, an AFP reporter at the scene said.

The two projectiles hit the target, a retired Philippines navy corvette, around 75 kilometres offshore in the South China Sea, causing it to sink, officials said.

The 19-day Balikatan exercises, meaning “shoulder-to-shoulder” and which wrap up Friday, have involved some 17,000 military personnel including Japanese combat troops for the first time.

Japan in recent years has moved to obtain “counterstrike” capabilities while hiking military spending and deepening security cooperation with regional allies including the Philippines.

Last month Takaichi’s government relaxed the country’s self-imposed rules to allow exports of lethal military hardware, seeking to grab a larger slice of the booming global market.

Last year Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries won a landmark order from the Australian navy — Takaichi was in Canberra this week — to supply 11 warships.

Missile drill angers China

Long-frosty China-Japan ties have worsened after Takaichi, seen as an arch-conservative and security hawk, suggested in November that Japan might intervene militarily in any Chinese attempt to take Taiwan.

China, which regards the democratic island as part of its territory and has not ruled out force to annex it, was furious over the comments, advising its citizens to avoid Japan and imposing trade restrictions.

On Wednesday Beijing lashed out at the missile test, calling it “another example of the Japanese right-wing forces’ push for accelerated remilitarisation of Japan.”

Foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian told a regular briefing that “not only has Japan, the aggressor, failed to deeply reflect on its historical crimes, it has even sent military forces overseas and fired offensive missiles under the pretext of security cooperation.”

Yee Kuang Heng, a professor in international security at the University of Tokyo, said that the missile test to sink a ship was “particularly significant as island defence is a shared concern of both Japan and the Philippines.”

Another important component was the participation of Japan’s Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade (ARDB) in counter-landing drills with US, Philippine and Canadian forces, Heng added.

“Balikatan 2026 also saw the maiden deployment of Japan’s ShinMaywa US-2 amphibious aircraft for air-sea rescue and medical procedures, especially important given the long sea lanes in the region,” Heng told AFP.

By Allison Jackson and Joy Chiang

Taiwan’s drone exports are taking off, fuelled by the war in Ukraine, as Taiwanese companies seek a stake in the fast-growing global market for unmanned aerial vehicles.

Low-cost drones used for reconnaissance and strikes are in high demand as governments around the world boost defence spending in the face of intensifying conflicts.

A relatively new player in the increasingly competitive industry, Taiwan’s pitch is to be an “Asian hub” for the production of UAVs and components free of Chinese materials, or “non-red”.

That means its UAVs can be up to three times more expensive than their Chinese competitors, like the world’s biggest manufacturer DJI, which benefit from their massive scale.

Nevertheless, Taiwanese companies have recorded a surge in sales as Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, where drones have been used extensively by both sides, drives demand.

China’s export restrictions on drones in recent years have also opened up an opportunity for Taiwanese firms, which have been struggling to secure sufficient sales at home.

“Domestically there’s not enough demand,” said Samara Duerr, a policy analyst at the Research Institute for Democracy, Society and Emerging Technology (DSET), a Taiwan government-backed think tank.

“So it’s reaching internationally to help bring scale and experience so that it has this capacity and knows how to have a surge ability later on.”

Taiwan’s drone exports soared to 181,159 units in the first four months of this year, nearly 20 times higher than the same period of 2025, and more than the entire year, official trade data show.

The vast majority went to the Czech Republic, followed by Poland. DSET believes most units are bought or funded by charitable organisations and donated to Ukraine.

Max Lo, chairman of AeroSoarX, which makes military and dual-use drones, said Taiwanese companies had to look abroad to stay viable.

Although Taiwan is trying to build a domestic drone industry, budget hold-ups in the opposition-controlled parliament mean government orders are not keeping pace.

“If we don’t have the local demand, government support or budget, how can we sustain the production line?” said Lo.

“That’s the reason I visit Ukraine, I visit Poland. I let them know, okay, we have this or that; we have production still available.”

‘Drone shield’

Taiwan is a global powerhouse in AI technology and semiconductor chip manufacturing, and hopes to build on that experience in the drone industry.

The island aims to have a monthly production capacity of 100,000 drones by 2030, compared with its previous target of 15,000 by 2028.

Chiou Chyou-huey, director general of the Industrial Development Administration, said the “vast majority” of Taiwan’s drone exports were non-red, but several industry insiders told AFP that they suspect most of them are not.

Taiwan wants to be able to produce enough drones on its own to repel a potential attack from China, which claims the island is part of its territory, and embed itself into global UAV supply chains, like it has done with chips.

“We call it the drone shield,” said Lo. “That will become another protection (for Taiwan).”

But the government’s plan to procure more than 200,000 Taiwanese-made drones as part of a nearly US$40 billion defence spending proposal has been blocked in parliament, hindering progress.

Taiwanese companies also face challenges breaking into a market already dominated by China — and their drones and components lack battlefield experience.

“Even though it is hard to question Taiwan’s industrial prowess, it is all about this question of practical application,” said Marcin Jerzewski, head of the Taiwan office of the European Values Center for Security Policy.

“Would Taiwanese drones be combat-ready?”

Cut-throat competition

Another issue is that Ukraine, which has become one of the most advanced UAV manufacturing hubs in the world, could stop needing Taiwanese drones once the conflict is over and flood the market with its own units.

Competition is “cut-throat” and growing fast, said Collin Koh, a military expert at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

“Taiwan will have to find its niche,” Koh told AFP.

Where Taiwan can compete against China is in “micro components” such as lithium-ion cells, said Artur Savchii, an analyst at Snake Island Institute, a Ukrainian think tank.

“That’s where Taiwan can replace China and I think this is a big area for cooperation,” Savchii told AFP.

Ultimately every region is striving for “maximum localisation” of supply chains, Yaroslav Azhnyuk, founder of Ukrainian drone company The Fourth Law, said.

Taiwanese drone makers are increasingly partnering with companies abroad, as they carve out a place in the non-red market.

Among them is Thunder Tiger, which has a joint venture to make drone motors in the US state of Ohio.

General manager Gene Su said he sees the biggest opportunities in the United States where concerns over Chinese security threats are driving demand for non-red drones and components.

Thunder Tiger also wants to set up production lines in Europe but countries there are more price sensitive, Su said.

“Once we’re getting bigger, our costs are lower, and then we can compete with the Chinese,” he said.

By Danny Kemp

Chinese President Xi Jinping warned his US counterpart Donald Trump that missteps on Taiwan could push their two countries into “conflict”, a stark opening salvo as they met in Beijing on Thursday at a superpower summit.

Trump had arrived in China with accolades for his host, calling Xi a “great leader” and “friend”, as he predicted that their countries would have “a fantastic future together”.

But beyond the pomp as he welcomed Trump, Xi in less effusive tones said the two sides “should be partners and not rivals”, while highlighting the issue of self-ruled democratic Taiwan — which Beijing claims as its territory — straight off the bat.

“The Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-US relations,” Xi said, according to remarks published by Chinese state media shortly after talks began.

“If mishandled, the two nations could collide or even come into conflict, pushing the entire China-US relationship into a highly perilous situation,” he added at the opening talks that lasted around two hours and 15 minutes.

Trump’s trip to Beijing is the first by a US president in nearly a decade, with the grand reception belying a host of unresolved trade and geopolitical tensions between the two countries.

Xi greeted Trump with a red-carpet welcome at the opulent Great Hall of the People, with military band fanfare, a gun salute and a host of schoolchildren jumping and chanting “welcome!”.

Seemingly enjoying the ceremony, Trump said “the relationship between China and the USA is going to be better than ever before”.

Xi instead referenced an ancient Greek political theory about the risks of war when a rising power rivals a ruling power.

“Can China and the United States transcend the so-called ‘Thucydides Trap’ and forge a new paradigm for major-power relations,” Xi asked, adding that “cooperation benefits both sides, while confrontation harms both”.

There has been plenty of the latter since Trump’s last visit in 2017, with the two countries having spent much of 2025 embroiled in a dizzying trade war and at odds on many major global issues.

‘Blunt language’

Taiwan is a longstanding sore point.

The United States recognises only Beijing but under domestic law is required to provide weapons to Taiwan so that it can defend itself.

China has sworn to take the self-ruled democracy and has not ruled out using force, ramping up military pressure in recent years.

Following Xi’s comments on Thursday, Taipei called China the “sole risk” to regional peace, and insisted that “the US side has repeatedly reaffirmed its clear and firm support”.

But Trump said Monday he would speak to Xi about US arms sales to Taiwan, a departure from historic US insistence that it will not consult Beijing on the matter.

Adam Ni, editor of newsletter China Neican, told AFP that while such “blunt language” was not uncommon in Chinese foreign policy, it was unusual coming from Xi himself.

“Xi wants to make it very clear… he thinks the Taiwan issue is the potential powder keg between the two superpowers,” Ni added.

China has been “signalling a desire for US compromise on Taiwan in the lead up to the summit,” the National University of Singapore’s Chong Ja Ian told AFP.

Xi’s demand could suggest “they see some opportunity to convince Trump”, he said.

Iran overshadows

A new addition to the list of contentious issues to be discussed, the Iran war, threatens to weaken Trump’s position, having already forced him to postpone his trip from March.

The US president said he expected a “long talk” with Xi about Iran, which sells most of its US-sanctioned oil to China, but insisted that “I don’t think we need any help” from Beijing.

However, his secretary of state Marco Rubio, historically a fierce opponent of Beijing, said the US side was hoping “to convince (China) to play a more active role”.

Trump is also hoping for business deals on agriculture, aircraft and other sectors.

Elite businessmen in his delegation, including Nvidia’s Jensen Huang and Tesla’s Elon Musk, were on the stairs of the Great Hall of the People on Thursday for the welcome ceremony.

Musk told reporters afterwards the meeting had been “wonderful”, while Huang said the two presidents “were incredible”.

Xi later told the delegation that his country’s “doors to the outside world will open wider and wider” and that US companies would enjoy “even brighter prospects in China”.

On the eve of the summit, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng met in South Korea to seek progress in ending a long-simmering trade war between the two.

Xi said the talks “reached results that were generally balanced and positive”, and urged both sides to “safeguard the current hard-won positive momentum”.

Trump and Xi are set to discuss extending a one-year tariff truce reached during their last meeting in South Korea in October.

China’s controls on rare earth exports and AI rivalry are among other topics expected to be taken up.

After their morning meeting, the two men took a break from negotiations, heading to the Temple of Heaven, a World Heritage site where China’s emperors once prayed for good harvests.

The two will return to the Great Hall of the People this evening for a state banquet.

The leader of Taiwan’s main opposition party said Friday she hopes to maintain engagement with the United States on the island’s defense capabilities, speaking on a two-week US visit aimed at growing trust with Washington.

Addressing reporters in the US capital, Kuomintang chairwoman Cheng Li-wun said the party has expressed support for Taiwan’s defense capabilities and hopes “to continue maintaining and deepening our cooperation with the US in this regard.”

She did not comment specifically about a US$14 billion US arms sale to Taiwan that remains under review. Such sales are a thorny issue between Washington and Beijing.

Cheng in April became the first KMT leader in a decade to visit Beijing and meet Chinese President Xi Jinping, and her US trip comes just weeks after President Donald Trump himself held a summit with Xi.

The KMT, which has long advocated for closer ties with China, recently thwarted the Taiwanese government’s plan to spend nearly US$40 billion on critical weapons such as US arms and domestically produced drones.

In Washington, the KMT comes up against concerns over its more pro-engagement position, compared with President Lai Ching-te’s Democratic Progressive Party.

Cheng has rocked Taiwanese politics since her unexpected rise to the top of the party last year and drawn criticism for being too pro-China.

Beijing claims Taiwan is part of its territory and has threatened to use force to seize it.

On Friday, Cheng hit back at critics, saying that “seeking peaceful dialogue across the Taiwan Strait does not mean abandoning Taiwan’s defense capabilities.”

She added that she met nine members of Congress during her visit, alongside academics and others, touting the trip as a success.

She said Trump’s recent warning to the island against making a declaration of independence was also aligned with the KMT’s positions.

After wrapping up his state visit to Beijing last month, Trump said in an interview that “I’m not looking to have somebody go independent. And, you know, we’re supposed to travel 9,500 miles to fight a war. I’m not looking for that.”

Cheng’s itinerary also included stops in San Francisco, Los Angeles, Boston and New York.

US President Donald Trump on Friday warned Taiwan against declaring formal independence after concluding his visit to China, whose leader Xi Jinping had pressed him not to support the self-ruling island.

Trump ended the state visit claiming to have made “fantastic” trade deals, although the details were vague, and he did not appear to secure any breakthrough with China over his stalemated war on Iran.

Trump invited Xi for a reciprocal visit to Washington in September, signalling both sides will likely seek stability in the often turbulent relationship between the world’s two largest economies.

On a key issue for Xi, Trump made clear he opposed a declaration of independence by Taiwan and appeared to question why the United States would defend the island in case of attack.

“I’m not looking to have somebody go independent. And, you know, we’re supposed to travel 9,500 miles to fight a war. I’m not looking for that,” he told Fox News’ “Special Report with Bret Baier.”

“I want them to cool down. I want China to cool down,” Trump said.

“We’re not looking to have wars, and if you kept it the way it is, I think China’s going to be OK with that.”

The United States recognizes only Beijing and does not support formal independence by Taiwan, but historically has stopped short of explicitly saying it opposes independence.

Under US law, the United States is required to provide weapons to Taiwan for its defence, but it has been ambiguous on whether US forces would come to the island’s aid.

Xi had begun the summit with a warning on Taiwan, whose President Lai Ching-te considers the island already independent, making a declaration unnecessary.

Xi told Trump that missteps on the sensitive issue could cause “conflict”.

Referring to comments by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who said US policy toward Taipei was unchanged, Taiwan’s foreign ministry thanked the United States for showing “it supports and values Taiwan Strait peace and stability”.

No details on ‘fantastic’ deals

On Friday, Boeing confirmed that China had made an “initial commitment” to buy 200 aircraft, a deal previously announced by Trump. The company said more orders could follow.

Trump also said Beijing would buy American oil and soybeans.

“We’ve made some fantastic trade deals, great for both countries,” he said after a walk with Xi in the gardens of Zhongnanhai, a central leadership compound next to Beijing’s Forbidden City.

“We’ve settled a lot of different problems that other people wouldn’t have been able to solve,” Trump added, without providing specifics.

Xi promised to send Trump rose seeds for the White House Rose Garden and said it was a “milestone visit”.

But beyond Boeing, there were no other formal announcements from companies or from China on trade deals.

The reserve on the Chinese side echoes the tone of the summit as a whole, where Trump’s overtures to Xi — whom he described as a “great leader” and “friend” — were met with a more muted response.

“Trump got the optics he was looking for and the Chinese were happy to give them to him,” said Jacob Stokes, a senior fellow at the Centre for a New American Security.

Little on Iran

Trump had delayed the trip once due to the war in Iran, which has rebuffed his appeals for a peace agreement and retaliated by exerting control over the key Strait of Hormuz, sending global oil prices soaring.

Trump said Xi had assured him that China was not preparing military aid to Iran. Israel has alleged that Beijing has provided key missile technology to Tehran.

The Chinese foreign ministry on Friday released a statement on Iran saying “shipping lanes should be reopened as soon as possible”.

Trump also acknowledged that he could not persuade Xi to free Jimmy Lai, the imprisoned Hong Kong pro-democracy media tycoon whose cause is broadly backed in Washington.

“He told me, Jimmy Lai is a tough one for him to do,” Trump told reporters.

Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific program, noted that Trump had already sounded half-hearted in his public comments on Lai.

“My sense is that the Chinese see that this is not a top priority for the United States,” she said.

“What Trump seems to want most is purchases of American products — that appears to be his highest priority.”

The two leaders had been expected to discuss extending the one-year tariff truce that paused their frenetic 2025 trade war, struck during their last meeting in October.

But Trump told reporters on the way home that it “wasn’t brought up”.

The United States issued an updated list on Monday of Chinese companies that it believes are aiding the country’s military — including e-commerce giant Alibaba, search engine provider Baidu and electric vehicle maker BYD.

The US Defense Department unveiled the designations just weeks after President Donald Trump met Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing, with both sides seeking to maintain stability in the bilateral relationship.

Trump has since invited Xi to pay a reciprocal visit to Washington in September.

But the latest release could fan tensions between the world’s two biggest economies.

The latest Pentagon update came months after it briefly released — then withdrew — an earlier version of the list without explanation.

The new list is largely similar to the version momentarily published in February, although two memory chipmakers were reinstated to the blacklist after having been removed from it at the time.

The re-added companies are ChangXin Memory Technologies and Yangtze Memory Technologies.

“This updated list of Chinese military companies is a warning to American businesses, all levels of government, and the American people,” said Representative John Moolenaar, the Republican chair of the House Select Committee on China.

He urged in a statement for US companies to “stop doing business with these threats to our national security” or risk “enabling China’s military ascendance.”

The companies targeted also cover some of China’s key tech giants involved in artificial intelligence, including Alibaba, Baidu and Tencent. Tencent was already previously designated.

Baidu opposed the list in a statement on Chinese social media, calling the accusations “entirely baseless”.

“We categorically reject the inclusion of Baidu on the list, and there is no credible justification for adding Baidu to the list,” a spokesperson said.

“The suggestion that Baidu is a military company is entirely baseless. We will not hesitate to use all options available to us to have the company removed from the list.”

Alibaba called its inclusion in the list “a mistake”, threatening legal action.

“There is no basis to conclude that Alibaba Group should be placed on the CMC List. Alibaba Group is not a Chinese military company nor part of any military-civil fusion strategy,” the company said in a statement.

While the determinations have few immediate legal implications for many of the companies, it is seen as a move that could precede more punitive measures.

Other companies that were added include pharmaceutical firm WuXi AppTec and start-up Unitree, which makes humanoid robots.

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Beijing would play a “greater role” in ending hostilities in the Middle East during talks with his Iranian counterpart on Wednesday, a week before US President Donald Trump is due to meet Xi Jinping.

China is a key customer for Iranian oil, defying sanctions imposed by the United States, and is directly affected by the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz bordered by Iran.

Beijing has quietly engaged in efforts to resolve the weekslong crisis and its diplomacy is credited with playing an important role in the fragile ceasefire agreed between Washington and Tehran.

China “will work harder to ease tensions and end the fighting, continue to support the launch of peace talks, and play a greater role in restoring peace and tranquility to the Middle East”, Wang told Iran’s Abbas Araghchi in Beijing.

“China considers that a complete cessation of fighting must be achieved without delay, that it is even more unacceptable to restart hostilities, and that continuing to negotiate remains essential,” Wang said, according to a statement from his ministry after the talks.

Manufacturing giant China has been comparatively sheltered from fuel shortages thanks to oil reserves and renewable energy, but costs of oil-derived materials like plastic and fabric have risen significantly.

More than half of the crude imported by sea to China comes from the Middle East and mainly transits through the Hormuz strait, according to maritime analytics firm Kpler.

Analysts have warned the war’s impact on China will be felt for months.

During Wednesday’s talks Wang said China hopes “the parties concerned will respond as quickly as possible to the urgent call of the international community” for a resumption of normal and safe maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump trip looms

The Wang-Araghchi talks came as Trump said the US would pause escorting commercial ships through the Hormuz Strait — which drew Iranian attacks — barely a day after it began doing so.

Trump cited a desire to reach a peace deal with Iran.

Washington demands tight controls on Tehran’s nuclear programme, which Iran has refused to agree to and has led to talks crumbling.

“On the nuclear issue, China welcomes Iran’s commitment not to develop nuclear weapons, while considering that Iran has the legitimate right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy,” Wang said.

The US leader is expected to meet Chinese President Xi in Beijing on a visit the White House said will take place May 14-15.

Beijing has not confirmed those dates.

A foreign ministry spokesman again refused to share details when asked about Trump’s visit at a regular news conference on Wednesday.

Trump would join rulers from the Gulf, Europe and Southeast Asia that have recently landed face time with Xi, who has sought to position China as a stable partner in the face of the US- and Israeli-led conflict.

Trump’s visit would also come more than a year after his sweeping global tariffs wreaked havoc on the supply chain, causing chaos in China’s manufacturing sector.

President Donald Trump said Monday he was ready to discuss US arms sales to Taiwan during his visit this week to Beijing, as he suggested his personal chemistry with counterpart Xi Jinping would prevent a Chinese invasion of the island.

The White House said Trump will bring along top US executives including his former nemesis Elon Musk and Apple’s Tim Cook for a trip expected to focus heavily on the US president’s hopes to ramp up trade.

China said it hoped to achieve greater stability between the world’s two largest economies during the visit lasting Wednesday through Friday, the first by a US president since Trump went in 2017.

Asked if the United States should keep selling weapons to Taiwan, a key irritant for Beijing, Trump did not answer directly but said: “I’m going to have that discussion with President Xi.”

“President Xi would like us not to, and I’ll have that discussion. That’s one of the many things I’ll be talking about,” he said, speaking to reporters in the Oval Office.

Trump, after referencing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, said of Taiwan, “I don’t think it’ll happen.”

“I think we’ll be fine. I have a very good relationship with President Xi. He knows I don’t want that to happen,” he said.

But Trump also noted that the United States was “very, very far away” compared with China.

When asked for a response to Trump’s remarks, Taiwan’s foreign ministry vowed to “continue to strengthen cooperation” with the United States, the island’s main security backer, and “build effective deterrence capabilities in order to jointly maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.”

Congress backs Taiwan

The United States recognizes only Beijing but under domestic law is required to provide weapons for the defense of Taiwan, a self-governing democracy which China considers its own.

Under the 1982 “Six Assurances,” a key foundation of US policy on Taiwan after the switch of recognition, the United States said it would not “consult” with Beijing about arms sales to the island.

Trump has long berated allies as not spending enough on their own defense. Days ahead of his trip to China, Taiwan’s parliament Friday approved a US$25 billion defense spending bill, although it fell short of the government’s proposal.

Pointing to the vote by parliament, a group of US senators led by Jeanne Shaheen, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said that Trump should immediately green-light a US$14 billion arms package to Taiwan.

“We urge you and your team to make clear that America’s support for Taiwan is inviolable,” wrote the senators, mostly Democrats but including two centrists from Trump’s Republican Party.

While discussing economic concerns, Trump should also state that “American support for Taiwan is not up for negotiation,” they wrote.

New sanctions over Iran

Trump delayed the trip once due to the war he launched with Israel against Iran, which is still rebuffing his appeals for an agreement.

China is the main international customer for Iran’s oil, which Trump has tried to stop all countries from buying through unilateral US sanctions.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in an interview Sunday with CBS News’ “60 Minutes,” said he was unhappy that Beijing had shared missile technology with Iran.

Trump’s Treasury Department on Monday issued sanctions against 12 individuals and entities it said facilitated the sale and shipment of Iranian oil to China.

The sanctions came even as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent prepared to set up Trump’s visit during talks with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Seoul on Wednesday.

Bessent and He have been the chief negotiators for the United States and China on all trade and economic issues.

In Beijing on Monday, foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said that top-level diplomacy was “irreplaceable” between the two countries.

“China is willing to work with the United States in the spirit of equality, respect, and mutual benefit, to expand cooperation, manage differences, and inject more stability and certainty into a volatile and intertwined world,” he told a briefing.

Asked about US pressure on Iran, Guo said only that China’s position on Iran was “consistent” and that Beijing would continue to play a “positive role” in promoting a ceasefire and peace talks.

Trump and Xi last met face-to-face in October on the sidelines of a regional summit in South Korea.

They agreed then to a one-year truce in a blistering trade war that saw tariffs on many goods exceed 100 percent.

Taiwan said Monday that China’s maritime operation in waters to the east of the island democracy was “provocative” and “expansionism in disguise”.

Chinese ships are conducting a “law enforcement operation” in response to talks between Japan and the Philippines to draw a boundary in waters to the east of Taiwan, Chinese state media said Saturday.

China, which asserts Taiwan is part of its territory, called the talks “illegal” and has claimed exclusive control over the waters.

“It’s nothing but expansionism in disguise that threatens regional peace & stability,” Taiwan’s National Security Council chief Joseph Wu wrote on X.

Defence Minister Wellington Koo said the Chinese actions were “provocative”.

Koo told reporters that the move was a “cognitive warfare operation” designed to claim that the waters off Taiwan’s east coast fell within China’s “enforcement jurisdiction”.

Taiwan’s coast guard has deployed seven patrol vessels to monitor the Chinese ships.

The Taiwanese vessels expelled four Chinese ships from waters off the island’s southernmost tip on Sunday.

The ships have since moved further east, Taiwan’s coast guard said Monday, after an hours-long standoff.

US President Donald Trump is due to visit China on May 14-15, where he is expected to meet leader Xi Jinping, after delaying an earlier summit because of the Iran war.

Here is what Beijing could be hoping to achieve:

What does China want?

Beyond diplomatic niceties and behind closed doors, Beijing will be looking for small, concrete achievements, analysts said, but will stay “realistically pragmatic” given Trump’s unpredictable nature.

China wants a broad reset in ties but knows this would be unlikely, said Benjamin Ho from Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

Beijing and Washington had been locked in a blistering trade war in which US levies on many Chinese goods reached an eye-watering 145 percent.

The tit-for-tat escalation cooled off after Trump and Xi agreed in October to a one-year truce, with experts saying Beijing’s baseline goal for the upcoming meeting would be to extend that agreement.

“What China needs is for Trump to follow through on his promise to engage, with at least a few concrete outcomes discussed at the highest level,” said Yue Su from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).

Beijing will be satisfied with “targeted” results such as limited tariff reductions that would justify a measured rollback of its own tariffs or export restrictions, she said.

What about the Iran war?

The topic of Iran will be “hard to avoid” in the Trump-Xi meeting, experts said, but “this is not a domain China is eager to engage deeply on”.

“The US is already raising pressure pre-summit on China by targeting its economic ties with Tehran,” said Lizzi Lee at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

Trump warned last month he would hit China’s goods with a 50 percent tariff if it provided military assistance to Iran.

Beijing is a close partner of Tehran and has called US-Israeli strikes on Iran illegal, but it has also criticised Iranian attacks on Gulf countries and called for the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened.

However, China will not accept pressure from the United States to take action on Iran or Russia, over whom it “may have some influence but not decisive control”, the EIU’s Su said.

Beijing will also aim to avoid “additional complications” such as new US tariffs linked to China’s trade with Iran being introduced into an “already complex relationship”, Su said.

The Iran war will add “another layer of mutual pressure”, Lee said, but the real negotiating terrain remains in trade and investment.

What are China’s bargaining chips?

One of China’s key bargaining chips is its rare earths — metals crucial in the production of everything from smartphones to electric cars.

China’s dominance in the rare earths industry, from natural reserves and mining through processing and innovation, is the result of a decades-long drive.

It remains China’s strongest tool if meaningful concessions from the United States are needed, Su said.

Trump has shown that he “cares a lot about” rare earths, said Joe Mazur, a geopolitics analyst at Beijing-based consultancy Trivium China.

“I think that’s sort of something that the US doesn’t really have an answer to,” he said.

Mazur thinks that China is “going to line up… quick wins” before the visit, which may include buying more US agricultural products or Boeing jets.

China, he said, might hope “that will put Trump and his team in a positive frame of mind when they’re then discussing more complex, thornier issues”.

How has Beijing prepared?

China has hedged against instability brought about by Trump through diversifying trade towards Southeast Asia and the Global South, and strengthening regional ties, said the Asia Society’s Lee.

Beijing has also sharpened its legal and regulatory toolbox, she said, and “has a potentially more extensive playbook”, as seen in the recent blocking of tech giant Meta’s acquisition of AI firm Manus.

However, a lot of these measures, including diversification of energy imports, a push towards electrification and tech self-sufficiency, predate Trump’s second term, Mazur said.

“If this meeting goes exceptionally well, it’s not going to change the trajectory that China’s on,” he said.

“This push to America-proof the Chinese economy is going to continue, no matter what happens.”

Is China confident?

Beijing will enter talks “cautiously confident”, Lee said.

It believes it can absorb pressure better now and is more comfortable playing “a long game” than Trump, who is facing midterm election pressure, she said.

A visit to Beijing by Russian President Vladimir Putin is also on the cards, with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov — who met Xi in April — saying it would happen in the first half of this year.

A back-to-back visit would send the message that “just because he (Xi) had a good meeting with Trump, it doesn’t mean that Chinese support for Russia is going anywhere”, Mazur told AFP.

“That relationship is rock solid.”

US President Donald Trump heads for a superpower summit with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping next week hoping the Iran war will not spoil the mood in Beijing.

Trump will be expecting a lavish welcome at the high-stakes meeting, which he delayed in March because of the Middle East conflict.

But the war will still loom large over his first visit to China since 2017, which is supposed to focus on easing tensions over trade and Taiwan between the world’s largest economies.

Trump said the two leaders would discuss the issue and that Xi had been “very respectful” over Iran.

Yet with Trump desperately seeking a deal to end the war before he lands in Beijing, China may seek to use his weakened position to extract concessions on key issues.

“The reality is that right now, Iran is critical for the US and the Chinese know that,” said Edgard Kagan of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

‘Big, fat hug’

The world will be closely watching the Trump-Xi summit, but uncertainty over the timing and a lack of preparation mean deliverables are likely to be limited.

For a US president obsessed with the idea of Great Power diplomacy, the main priority during the May 14-15 visit will be visuals of him being feted by a strongman fellow leader.

Trump, 79, has repeatedly talked up his “very good relationship” with Xi, 72, whom he met in South Korea last October, even saying the Chinese leader will give him a “big, fat hug” over Iran.

He will also hope to come away from the summit with big business deals as he looks to midterm elections in which Republicans face a hammering over high oil prices from the Iran war.

While some industry leaders say invitations have still not formally gone out, Trump’s administration plans to invite CEOs from companies including Apple, Exxon, Nvidia and Boeing, Semafor reported, with talk of a big Boeing deal in the offing.

Trump will also be hoping to bring back deals on AI, critical minerals and fentanyl.

One solid result that China in particular hopes for could be an extension of the fragile year-long trade truce that Trump and Xi agreed on in South Korea in October.

China has however shown that it is still ready to respond to Washington, saying on May 2 that it would not comply with US sanctions against firms targeted over Iranian oil transactions.

“It appears that the truce is not as strong as we were hoping,” Sean Stein, president of the US-China Business Council, told AFP.

‘A lot of leverage’

Communist-run China will meanwhile be looking for stability in a Trump-roiled world, and to play for time in the knowledge that the volatile US leader is on his second and final term in office.

Beijing is also likely to use Trump’s weakened position to its advantage where it can.

“There’s actually a lot of leverage there that Beijing could use,” said Patricia Kim, a senior foreign policy fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

“Trump is looking for a win, right? I mean, he hasn’t had much wins in recent weeks with the war in Iran going on.”

Taiwan could be one area in particular where Xi may try to extract concessions, analysts say — for example on arms sales to the self-governing island that Beijing claims as its own.

Trump has been known to go off-script on the thorny topic before and allies in the region who fear an assertive China will be closely watching for signs of US wavering.

At the same time Beijing is likely to play up to Trump’s love of pomp and flattery, knowing that a slighted and angry Trump would cause trouble.

But the Chinese will try to wash their hands of any involvement in the war on its ally Iran and deflect pressure from Trump during the meeting with Xi.

Beijing’s hosting of Iran’s foreign minister this week was “a sign that they realize this is coming down the pike,” said Kagan from CSIS.

The acting US Navy secretary said Thursday that arm sales to Taiwan had been put on “pause” to ensure that the American military had sufficient munitions for its Iran operations.

Asked at a congressional hearing about the stalled US$14 billion weapons purchase by Taiwan, acting secretary Hung Cao said that “right now we’re doing a pause in order to make sure we have the munitions we need for Epic Fury — which we have plenty.”

“But, we’re just making sure we have everything, then the foreign military sales will continue when the administration deems necessary.”

The US State Department and the Pentagon did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Cao’s remarks.

US President Donald Trump has not committed to following through with the sale, raising concerns over his commitment to support for Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory.

Ahead of his recent state visit to China, Trump said he would speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping about the arms sales, a departure from Washington’s previous insistence that it will not consult Beijing on the matter.

Afterward, he said he had made no commitments to Xi about Taiwan and would be making a determination on the arm sales “over the next fairly short period of time.”

The United States recognizes only Beijing, but under US law is required to provide weapons to the self-ruled democracy for its defense.

China has sworn to take the island and has not ruled out using force, ramping up military pressure in recent years.