One of the changes I have noticed since our last (shall we say “popular?”) District Council was replaced by a more salubrious patriots-only gathering is that we now get decorations on Sha Tin lampposts.

This adds to public gaiety, no doubt, but has limited effectiveness as a communication medium because the banners have to be quite small and the lampposts are quite tall. So you can’t really get any words in.

Early attempts in this area avoided the legibility problem because they were put up in celebration of anniversaries. All you could really see was a big number, but as you were seeing the same number in all sorts of other places it was quite obvious what we were supposed to be celebrating.

The latest effort did not involve a number. Looking up at it while waiting for the traffic lights to change I could not make out anything at all. My research assistant deployed her mobile phone, took a picture with the telephoto feature working flat out and announced that we were celebrating China’s 15th five-year plan.

Happily I was able to catch up with this important matter when I came across a much bigger offering on the same theme outside an MTR station. It seems we are urged to “Pro-actively align with the 15th five-year plan” and “Follow a holistic approach to development and security”.

I hesitate to criticise the work of other writers but I cannot resist the thought that the author of this offering needs to give some thought to finding the sort of language which means something concrete and sensible to the man in the street, who is rarely told to pro-actively align with anything, or indeed to follow a holistic approach to it.

Most English people of my generation are not bowled over by the idea of five-year plans. This is partly because rigid adherence to erroneous five-year plans caused two of the 20th century’s most catastrophic famines: in Ukraine 1932-3 and in China 1958-62.

It is also no doubt partly because UK governments have rarely attempted economic planning of this kind and the rare experiment (in the early years of the 1964 Wilson government) was not a success. The Treasury (which is what they call the Finance Ministry in the UK) has never developed a wish to run plans itself, but certainly does not want anyone else doing it.

Besides the history there is the philosophical objection, usually attributed to Friedrich Hayek, to government direction of the economy. This maintains that official intervention is an infringement of freedom and also obscures the useful information provided by prices set in the marketplace.

Whatever you think of five-year plans, though, one does have to wonder if they really call for the sort of mass public participation that the campaign on lamp-posts and MTR stations appears to be seeking. Even if we replaced proactive alignment and holistic approaches with something more democratic in tone it is far from clear what the average Hong Kong person can do to further the doubtless laudable aims of the national plan.

Apparently we are going to have our own five-year plan in due course, some time later this year. No doubt this will be a very valuable indication of what Hong Kong should be doing to further national objectives. Perhaps it would make more sense to wait for it.

A separate question is whether the compulsive adornment of lamp-posts with announcements of public interest is a welcome innovation. Perhaps it is a dulce et decorum thing that citizens should be reminded of historic landmarks and invited to join in democratic festivals.

But there is a cost to hanging things on lampposts and District Council members need to consider whether the message they are trying to get across really suits this particular mass medium. If the only thing you can get in at a legible size is two digits then the merits of proactive alignment and holistic approaches should be advertised elsewhere. There is no point in hanging a message on a lamppost if people need a pair of binoculars to read them.

Meta has removed a series of scam ads impersonating the International Criminal Police Organization (INTERPOL) following HKFP’s enquiries.

The ads, targeting Hongkongers, appeared for weeks on Facebook. They urged users to get in touch with the global policing body if they wished to retrieve funds previously lost to scams – however, the ads were fraudulent.

The posts were published by a since-removed fake news outlet page called “Hong Kong Daily,” which falsely claimed to share an office address with HKFP.

INTERPOL told HKFP that such ads should be reported to the local police. “To confirm that INTERPOL never contacts members of the public directly, never demands money from people and never asks for bank details or any money transfer,” it said on Thursday. “Any such request or advert is fake. Members of the public should not engage and report any such emails or adverts to the local police.”

In response to HKFP on Friday, a spokesperson for the Hong Kong Police Force said they have been “actively engaging relevant authorities to verify and remove suspicious or fraudulent websites. In the process of removing such websites, cooperation with concerned parties, including various service providers, is essential. The Hong Kong Police Force is committed to safeguarding the interests of the public by working with these service providers to suppress fraudulent messages.”

The police force is part of the INTERPOL Member State of China.

Meta’s US$3.5 bn profits from scams – report

Last year, Meta banned over 3.7 million items of ad content in Hong Kong and 134 million instances globally. Also in 2025, the tech giant took down 10.9 million accounts associated with scam centres. The company owns Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp.

A spokesperson for Meta told HKFP on Friday that ads which impersonate organisations or seek to defraud people go against its policies.

“The flagged Facebook Page and associated ads have been removed for violating our policies,” the spokesperson said. “Fighting scams on our platforms is one of our top priorities and as scammers have grown in sophistication in recent years, so have our efforts. We use AI-powered detection technology to identify and remove scam ads at scale, and we also encourage anyone who encounters suspicious ads to report them through our in-app tools.”

Nevertheless, according to a report by Reuters news agency, Meta earns US$3.5 billion (HK$27.4 billion) from just a portion of scam ads every six months.

Citing internal Meta documents, Reuters said that the social media company projected that 10 per cent of its 2024 revenue would come from ads for scams and banned goods, amounting to US$16 billion (HK$124.8 billion).

Other fraudulent ads, appearing to target scam victims, remained online as of Monday, according to HKFP’s checks.

One ad targeting Hongkongers, published by a page called “Law Help,” urged those “affected by online fraud or an unregulated broker” to submit their details.

Scammers have been posing as law enforcement officers to defraud victims.

In March, Nikkei Asia reported that mock police stations and banks had been set up at scam centres, used to fool victims interacting via video call.

China’s consumer prices ticked up in April as the cost of crude oil rose globally due to the Iran war, official data showed on Monday.

Helped by the surging oil costs, factory gate prices also continued to show signs of recovery, rising for a second straight month after being stuck in negative territory since October 2022.

However, analysts warn deflation is still a threat for the world’s second-largest economy as prices in other sectors continue to fall and overcapacity remains a headache.

China’s consumer price index (CPI), a key measure of inflation, last month rose 1.2 percent year-on-year, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed.

The jump was due to “changes in international crude oil prices and increased demand for holiday travel”, according to Dong Lijuan, chief NBS statistician.

Domestic gas prices rose 19.3 percent on-year, Dong said, impacted by international commodity price fluctuations.

A five-day holiday at the beginning of May also typically sees more travel and spending in the weeks preceding it.

However, last month’s CPI was still well below the government’s two percent target for the year.

The April producer price index (PPI), which measures wholesale inflation, increased by 2.8 percent on-year — up from 0.5 percent in March.

It beat a Bloomberg forecast of 1.8 percent and marked the quickest pace since July 2022, when the PPI rose by 4.2 percent on-year.

The gauge slipped into negative territory that October and did not reverse until March.

“The rise in international crude oil prices drove up prices in domestic petroleum-related sectors,” the NBS’ Dong said in a statement, listing fuel processing and manufacturing of raw materials.

But analysts warn shocks caused by oil blockages in the Middle East are temporary.

“The fallout from the Iran War pushed up inflation again in April but price pressures remain narrow in scope and aren’t likely to build into a wider reflationary impulse”, Capital Economics said in a note.

“(With) overcapacity in most sectors unresolved and domestic demand growth still sluggish, the ingredients for a sustained reflationary impulse still appear to be missing.”

A Malaysia Airlines flight burst a tyre on Monday after aborting take-off at Hong Kong International Airport due to “technical issues,” but no injuries were reported.

The Airport Authority (AA) said the tyre burst occurred at around 9.18am on Monday.

Malaysia Airlines Flight MH79, bound for Kuala Lumpur, aborted taking off from the airport’s South Runway due to “technical issues,” the AA said.

“During deceleration, a tyre burst, and the aircraft veered off the runway and came to a stop on the taxiway.”

Following established procedures, the authority said, it arranged for a tow truck to remove the aircraft from the taxiway. “No injuries were reported,” it added.

Malaysia Airlines confirmed that the plane “discontinued take-off following a tyre-related issue.”

“The aircraft was safely brought to a stop in accordance with standard operating procedures. All passengers and crew are safe,” the company told HKFP in an emailed reply.

Photos circulating on social media show the burst tyre and several fire engines standing by next to the aircraft. One photo posted to Facebook shows an airport personnel member checking the burst tyre.

MH79 was originally scheduled to depart at 8.45am and arrive in Kuala Lumpur at 12.45pm. Flight-tracking site Flightradar24 shows that MH79 did not take off and returned to the ramp at the airport.

Malaysia Airlines said it “deeply regrets” the incident and that it was working on rebooking passengers on alternative flights or carriers.

Following the incident, the airport’s South Runway was closed for a routine inspection, the AA said. “Meanwhile, other flights used the Centre Runway for take-off and airport operations were largely normal.”

The South Runway reopened shortly after 10am on Monday, the authority added.

A Hong Kong rugby player is set to plead not guilty to molesting a customer at a bar in Central last year, with the trial scheduled for June.

Faizal Solomona Penesa, a player for the Hong Kong China Rugby team, appeared at Eastern Magistrates’ Courts on Monday to face one count of indecent assault at Bobby’s Rabble, a bar in Central, and another count of criminal damage after allegedly vandalising police property at a police station following his arrest.

Solomona pleaded guilty to the criminal damage offence, in which he allegedly damaged a door latch at Central Police Station on September 28, 2025, according to local media.

According to the facts agreed by the prosecution and the defence, he was emotional when he was detained and kicked the door latch. Police filmed the incident and arrested him on suspicion of criminal damage.

But he denied the charge of indecent assault, which allegedly occurred at the Central bar on September 28 last year. The court heard that Solomona did not know the complainant, who was another customer in the bar, and that they had arrived there separately.

When he was arrested on the second charge, Solomona told officers under police caution that he “didn’t really mean to do that” and “won’t do that next time.”

Citing a prosecution summary, local media reported that Solomona and the complainant had been drinking with their own groups at adjacent high tables.

Solomona, who is out on bail, will appear in court next on June 26 for trial. The prosecution said it planned on summoning three witnesses, including the complainant. She is known as X, and her identity will not be revealed during the hearing.

The defence said it would call one to three witnesses.

In a statement published in January, Hong Kong China Rugby said it took the allegations against Solomona “very seriously.”

Solomona has been suspended from all rugby activities until there is an outcome for the legal proceedings, it said.

KLN Logistics has told HKFP that a vehicle bearing the firm’s logo, which was spotted filling up at an alleged illegal fuelling site in Kwai Chung last week, was operated by a subcontractor.

An HKFP reader spotted the driver of the truck refuelling on Kwai Wo Street at around 10.30am on Thursday and shared photos of the incident.

In response to HKFP’s enquiry, a spokesperson for KLN Logistics – previously known as Kerry Logistics – said on Friday that “it was confirmed upon our investigation that the truck shown in the photo was operated by a subcontractor.”

The spokesperson added, “As we understand, the concerned subcontractor has already filed reports with relevant law enforcement authorities about the incident. If required, KLN will fully cooperate with the authorities’ investigation but in the meantime, we are not in a position to disclose any further details.”

The incident in Kwai Chung occurred weeks after authorities launched a crackdown on illicit fuel amid soaring petrol prices due to the war in the Middle East.

According to a Customs and Excise Department press release on Wednesday, law enforcement mounted a territory-wide joint operation codenamed “Knockout” targeting illicit fuel activities from April 13 to 30.

“Officers of Customs, the FSD [Fire Services Department] and the Police detected 19 related cases, and seized more than 21,000 litres of illicit fuel, 15 vehicles and one speedboat with an estimated market value of about $3.3 million. A total of 27 persons were arrested,” it said.

The operation shut down “five illicit mobile motor spirit fuelling stations in Lok Fu, Kowloon Bay, Wong Tai Sin, Kai Tak and Tsing Yi,” it added.

On Thursday, HK01 reported on several illegal refuelling sites in Kwai Chung, with a number of prosecutions taking place.

HKFP has reached out to customs and police for comment.

Soaring fuel costs

The standard price of unleaded petrol as of Monday is HK$32.54 per litre, according to the Consumer Council.

See also: Hong Kong sees ‘sharp rise’ in illegal fuel trading amid surging oil prices

Hong Kong has the highest petrol prices in the world, according to globalpetrolprices.com statistics dated March 30, giving rise to unlawful makeshift filling stations.

Last month, Hong Kong rolled out subsidies for diesel-powered public and commercial vehicles, as fuel costs soared worldwide over the US and Israel’s war on Iran and the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane.

Under the Dutiable Commodities Ordinance (Cap. 109), offences connected to the dealing with, possession of, selling or buying of illicit motor spirit attract a maximum penalty of HK$1 million and imprisonment for two years.

It is also an offence under the Fire Services (Fire Hazard Abatement) Regulation (Cap. 95F) to possess or control any controlled substance for the business purpose of transferring it into vehicle fuel tanks. Repeat offenders face a fine of up to HK$200,000 and imprisonment for one year.

Smugglers, meanwhile, face a maximum fine of HK$2 million and imprisonment for seven years.

Hong Kong authorities have declined to comment on reports that an activist wanted by the city’s national security police could face deportation to China after being arrested in Thailand for allegedly overstaying her visa.

Responding to media queries about concerns that wanted activist Zhang Xinyan could be transferred to China, the Security Bureau said on Monday that it would not comment on news reports about law enforcement actions in other jurisdictions.

“Endangering national security is an extremely serious crime… no fugitive should harbour the illusion that they can evade criminal liability by fleeing Hong Kong,” the bureau said in a statement.

Zhang, 54, is wanted by national security police for allegedly committing subversion, a crime under Article 23 – also known as Hong Kong’s homegrown national security law.

NGO Human Rights Watch (HRW) said on Saturday that Zhang could face deportation from Thailand. She is now being held at the Suan Phlu Immigration Detention Centre in Bangkok.

Zhang holds refugee status issued by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the NGO said.

According to media reports, overseas activist group the Hong Kong Parliament said she had overstayed her visa in Thailand.

Hong Kong and Thailand do not have any extradition agreements, although the transfer of fugitives can still be arranged. In February, a 62-year-old man accused in a murder case nearly 37 years ago was arrested in Thailand and extradited to Hong Kong.

HRW senior Thailand adviser Sunai Phasuk said sending Zhang to Hong Kong would put her in “grave danger.”

“Thai authorities should do the right thing by immediately releasing her and ensuring that she is not put in harm’s way,” he said.

34 activists wanted

Zhang is among a group of 19 activists named in a round of arrest warrants issued in July 2025, with bounties between HK$200,000 and HK$1 million.

Authorities cited their involvement from February to June 2025 in the “Hong Kong Parliament,” a group of overseas activists who held unofficial polls outside the city to form a shadow legislature to “pursue the ideal of Hong Kong people ruling Hong Kong.”

According to the Hong Kong Parliament’s YouTube channel, Zhang ran for a seat in the shadow legislature earlier that year.

According to the police force’s notices, Zhang and the others wanted for their involvement in the Hong Kong Parliament have a view to achieve self-determination and subvert state power.

In total, 34 people are wanted under the national security law on suspicion of committing offences including subversion, inciting secession and colluding with foreign forces.

Some of them have bounties of HK$1 million on their heads, including former pro-democracy lawmakers Ted Hui, Dennis Kwok and Nathan Law.

Activists Anna Kwok and Frances Hui, as well as political commentator Elmer Yuen, who is accused of launching a “referendum” to form the Hong Kong Parliament, are also among those targeted with million-dollar bounties.

A resident of the fire-ravaged Wang Fuk Court housing estate in Tai Po has said homeowners ran into hitches registering for online information sessions scheduled later this month.

Hop On Management, which took over estate management duties after the owners’ corporation committee was dissolved in the wake of the fatal blaze, said in an SMS message to a resident on Sunday that he had not completed registration for an “update session” on May 20, two days after the firm initially confirmed his registration.

The management company – a subsidiary of real estate giant Chinachem Group – announced last week that it had scheduled two online sessions on May 12 and 20. Tuesday’s session will be the first time for Hop On to address residents collectively.

It will give updates on the firm’s work as well as the financial situation of the now-dissolved owners’ board and refund arrangements for the renovation works that were under way when the fire broke out in November.

According to a Hop On document shared with residents and seen by HKFP, the session is only intended to explain the current situation to Wang Fuk Court residents and answer any questions they may have. No voting procedures will take place.

Registration ‘not completed’

The resident, who declined to be identified, showed HKFP the text message he received from Hop On. It said: “You have not completed the registration procedures for the Wang Fuk Court owners update session. Therefore, we cannot confirm attendance arrangements.”

The resident said he registered for the first session when registration opened on Wednesday, days before the deadline on Sunday at 11.59pm.

Hop On confirmed his registration on Friday but told him on Sunday afternoon that his registration had not been completed.

As of Monday morning, the resident’s registration had not been confirmed.

He said that another resident told him of experiencing the same issue.

Since Hop On was appointed administrator of Wang Fuk Court in January, residents have called on the company to hold a general meeting with homeowners. A petition launched by a group of survivors collected 247 handwritten signatures, or some 12 per cent of all households at the estate.

Hong Kong’s Building Management Ordinance stipulates that a management committee must convene a general meeting at the written request of at least five per cent of owners.

The Home Affairs Department earlier alleged that a similar petition, conducted online, could have contained fraudulent signatures.

The Tai Po fire broke out on November 26, claiming 168 lives and burning the homes of thousands. The blaze is Hong Kong’s deadliest since 1948.

President Donald Trump will visit China from May 13 to 15, Beijing confirmed on Monday, with the US leader expected to discuss Iran and trade with his Chinese counterpart.

Washington and Beijing have been at loggerheads over key issues ranging from trade tariffs to the Middle East war and Taiwan, which China claims as part of its territory.

Trump was originally meant to visit in late March or early April, but postponed his trip to focus on the Iran war.

“At the invitation of President Xi Jinping, President of the United States of America Donald J. Trump will pay a state visit to China from May 13 to 15,” a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said.

Trump is expected to push Xi on Iran while aiming to ease trade tensions, according to US officials.

China is a key customer for Iranian oil, mainly through independent “teapot” refineries that rely on discounted crude from the Islamic republic.

“This will be a visit of tremendous symbolic significance,” US Principal Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly told reporters on a call.

“But of course, President Trump never travels for symbolism alone. The American people can expect the president to deliver more good deals on behalf of our country.”

Trump’s first trip to China in his second term will feature pomp and ceremony including a tour of the Temple of Heaven in Beijing and a lavish state banquet, the White House said.

This is the first visit by a US president to China since 2017.

An Australian man has been remanded after allegedly dining at five-star hotels in Hong Kong without paying, just a day after being fined HK$3,000 over similar charges.

Samuel Anthony Monkivitch, 50, appeared at Eastern Magistrates’ Courts on Friday. He was charged with making off without payment and criminal damage between April 24 and May 5, local media reported.

Monkivitch, a lawyer, is accused of not paying restaurant bills at Cafe Too at the Island Shangri-La in Admiralty, Cafe Kool at the Kowloon Shangri-La in Tsim Sha Tsui, and two other restaurants – one in Central and another in Wan Chai.

His bill at the four places totalled around HK$2,039, the court heard.

The criminal damage offences relate to allegations that on May 4, he destroyed a sales terminal at the Island Shangri-La and damaged a person’s iPhone outside the Hong Kong Museum of History in Tsim Sha Tsui.

Magistrate Tobias Cheng denied Monkivitch bail and adjourned the case to June 5. Monkivitch will attend a bail hearing on May 15.

Previously, on Thursday, the lawyer was fined HK$3,000 for two counts of making off without payment and one count of common assault. He pleaded guilty to the offences the same day, local media reported.

Monkivitch was accused of dashing off after spending HK$639.10 at a Chiu Chow restaurant in Times Square, a mall in Causeway Bay, on March 23. A restaurant staff member chased Monkivitch and said he had not paid, attracting the attention of a bystander surnamed Chen, who pointed a camera at him.

The lawyer got into an altercation with the bystander and said to him, “Do you want your head smashed in?”

Monkivitch was also accused of leaving before paying a bill of HK$586 at Footaholic, a massage parlour in Wan Chai, on March 25.

US President Donald Trump is due to visit China on May 14-15, where he is expected to meet leader Xi Jinping, after delaying an earlier summit because of the Iran war.

Here is what Beijing could be hoping to achieve:

What does China want?

Beyond diplomatic niceties and behind closed doors, Beijing will be looking for small, concrete achievements, analysts said, but will stay “realistically pragmatic” given Trump’s unpredictable nature.

China wants a broad reset in ties but knows this would be unlikely, said Benjamin Ho from Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

Beijing and Washington had been locked in a blistering trade war in which US levies on many Chinese goods reached an eye-watering 145 percent.

The tit-for-tat escalation cooled off after Trump and Xi agreed in October to a one-year truce, with experts saying Beijing’s baseline goal for the upcoming meeting would be to extend that agreement.

“What China needs is for Trump to follow through on his promise to engage, with at least a few concrete outcomes discussed at the highest level,” said Yue Su from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).

Beijing will be satisfied with “targeted” results such as limited tariff reductions that would justify a measured rollback of its own tariffs or export restrictions, she said.

What about the Iran war?

The topic of Iran will be “hard to avoid” in the Trump-Xi meeting, experts said, but “this is not a domain China is eager to engage deeply on”.

“The US is already raising pressure pre-summit on China by targeting its economic ties with Tehran,” said Lizzi Lee at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

Trump warned last month he would hit China’s goods with a 50 percent tariff if it provided military assistance to Iran.

Beijing is a close partner of Tehran and has called US-Israeli strikes on Iran illegal, but it has also criticised Iranian attacks on Gulf countries and called for the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened.

However, China will not accept pressure from the United States to take action on Iran or Russia, over whom it “may have some influence but not decisive control”, the EIU’s Su said.

Beijing will also aim to avoid “additional complications” such as new US tariffs linked to China’s trade with Iran being introduced into an “already complex relationship”, Su said.

The Iran war will add “another layer of mutual pressure”, Lee said, but the real negotiating terrain remains in trade and investment.

What are China’s bargaining chips?

One of China’s key bargaining chips is its rare earths — metals crucial in the production of everything from smartphones to electric cars.

China’s dominance in the rare earths industry, from natural reserves and mining through processing and innovation, is the result of a decades-long drive.

It remains China’s strongest tool if meaningful concessions from the United States are needed, Su said.

Trump has shown that he “cares a lot about” rare earths, said Joe Mazur, a geopolitics analyst at Beijing-based consultancy Trivium China.

“I think that’s sort of something that the US doesn’t really have an answer to,” he said.

Mazur thinks that China is “going to line up… quick wins” before the visit, which may include buying more US agricultural products or Boeing jets.

China, he said, might hope “that will put Trump and his team in a positive frame of mind when they’re then discussing more complex, thornier issues”.

How has Beijing prepared?

China has hedged against instability brought about by Trump through diversifying trade towards Southeast Asia and the Global South, and strengthening regional ties, said the Asia Society’s Lee.

Beijing has also sharpened its legal and regulatory toolbox, she said, and “has a potentially more extensive playbook”, as seen in the recent blocking of tech giant Meta’s acquisition of AI firm Manus.

However, a lot of these measures, including diversification of energy imports, a push towards electrification and tech self-sufficiency, predate Trump’s second term, Mazur said.

“If this meeting goes exceptionally well, it’s not going to change the trajectory that China’s on,” he said.

“This push to America-proof the Chinese economy is going to continue, no matter what happens.”

Is China confident?

Beijing will enter talks “cautiously confident”, Lee said.

It believes it can absorb pressure better now and is more comfortable playing “a long game” than Trump, who is facing midterm election pressure, she said.

A visit to Beijing by Russian President Vladimir Putin is also on the cards, with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov — who met Xi in April — saying it would happen in the first half of this year.

A back-to-back visit would send the message that “just because he (Xi) had a good meeting with Trump, it doesn’t mean that Chinese support for Russia is going anywhere”, Mazur told AFP.

“That relationship is rock solid.”

By Mary Yang with Tommy Wang in Hong Kong

Vacuum cleaners and vapes could get more expensive if the Iran war drags on for much longer, Chinese factory owners and traders warn, as the world’s manufacturing hub reels from “crazy” costs.

Weeks of US-Israeli strikes on Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have choked Asia’s oil supply, stymieing the production of plastic — derived from oil — across the region.

Manufacturing giant China has been comparatively sheltered from fuel shortages thanks to oil reserves and renewable energy, but local factories are picking up a ballooning raw materials bill.

“Basically, we’ve been losing money on all our orders,” said Bryant Chen, a manager at vacuum cleaner factory RIMOO in southern Guangdong province’s Foshan.

The price of plastic has risen roughly 50 percent since before the Iran war, Chen told AFP as workers behind him fastened suction tubes to metal tanks.

“The costs of the products that we are making are being very greatly affected,” the 42-year-old said, listing plastic, copper for the vacuum’s motor and raw materials in its power cords.

“Typically at this time we’d be entering peak season, but compared to the same period previously, shipment and production data aren’t very optimistic.”

Two hours away, plastic traders in storage hub Zhangmutou said price fluctuations were the worst they’ve seen in decades.

“It has never been this crazy,” said Li Dong, 46, who entered the industry two decades ago.

The plastic, rice-sized pellets he buys for local phone cases and EV battery factories jumped wildly in March, triggering days of panic that jammed the small town’s roads as factories rushed to stock up.

‘Mutual state of decline’

Exporters in Zhangmutou showed AFP a vast range of products their pellets would become, including drones and badminton birdies.

One trader sifted through pink, green and purple beads that she said would be moulded into e-cigarette casings sold in the Middle East.

The Iran war has hit plastic production even harder than bottlenecks caused by the Covid pandemic, when ships could not come and go from China, Li said.

Some sellers cashed in on the plastic panic, he added, fighting to take advantage of surging costs.

Li said the price of plastic had dropped around 10 to 20 percent from its height, but he cautioned against further oil hold-ups.

“The factories we supply to will suffer the most because their direct costs will rise,” he said.

For exporters, the Middle East crisis has added to the hangover still lingering from Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs last year.

The US Supreme Court struck down those levies as illegal, but tolls on Chinese goods entering the US still sit at around 20 percent.

On the outskirts of Guangzhou, one garment factory owner lamented the chaos triggered by the US president’s trade war.

Overseas clients are afraid to place orders, while Chinese manufacturers cannot pin down changing costs.

“As a result, everyone is in a mutual state of decline,” garment boss Zhou, 55, said.

While 80 percent of his clients have returned, the fabrics scattered on his factory floor made into sweatpants headed for Europe and North America have risen 10 to 20 percent in cost due to the Middle East war.

As overseas orders dropped, seamsters went months without a job.

‘Tensions rise, orders disappear’

Migrant worker Jingjing returned to her hometown in Hubei province for two months, where she made half the 400 yuan (US$60) she now earns in Guangzhou’s garment factories.

“When tensions rise… orders suddenly disappear,” the 42-year-old said.

But this year she said she always has something to do.

In a damp back alley, Jingjing joined job-seekers milling about leisurely, haggling for higher wages while garment bosses perched on scooters brandished hiring signs, desperate for day labourers.

Chen, the vacuum factory manager, said he was “still worried” about surging shipping costs should the Iran war drag on.

“If shipping costs rise, it will cause the final costs for our customers to increase sharply,” he said.

They “will have no way to sell normally, because the costs are just too high”.

Chen said RIMOO plans to expand to other markets beyond the Middle East where around 60 percent of its customers are based.

“We are still optimistic,” he said. “The market demand still exists.”

But analysts warn the war’s impact on costs will be felt for months.

“The problem is all of these costs will filter through the supply chains for the rest of the year,” said supply chain consultant Cameron Johnson.

“The longer it goes on, that kind of cascades into much bigger problems, particularly if there’s not enough oil in general to run stuff.”