Key Facts —The headline: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries raised its forecast for Brazilian liquid-fuel production in 2026 by 270,000 barrels per day to an average of 4.7 million bpd, up from the prior 4.6 million bpd estimate, in its monthly oil-market report released on May 13. —The 2027 upgrade: OPEC also lifted […]

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Key Facts —The framework: Brazilian Central Bank President Gabriel Galípolo told the 4th BCB Annual Conference on May 13 that the current monetary-policy challenge is separating genuine supply shocks (from the Middle East war and climate effects) from second-order effects, with the latter requiring extra vigilance given Brazil’s unanchored inflation expectations and tight labor market. […]

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Key Facts —The estimate: The Mexican National Housing Development and Promotion Chamber (Canadevi) projects the Iran war oil-price shock will add 5-6% to the cost of building a new home in Mexico if Brent stays above US$110 per barrel, with the increase already flowing through cement, steel, aluminum and plastic-derivative materials. —The mechanics: Aluminum prices […]

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Key Facts —The operation: The Brazilian Federal Police launched Operation Off-Balance on May 13, executing six search and seizure warrants in Cajamar, Boituva, and São Paulo to investigate R$107 million (US$27 million) in suspicious investments by the Cajamar municipal pension fund, including R$87 million (US$22 million) in liquidated Banco Master notes. —The targets: Three former […]

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Key Facts —The headline: Colombia’s gross external debt reached US$252.168 billion in February 2026, equivalent to 55% of GDP, according to Banco de la República data released this week; the stock is up US$29.595 billion year-on-year from US$222.573 billion in February 2025. —The split: Public-sector external debt accounts for US$157.130 billion (34.3% of GDP), and […]

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Key Facts —The strike: Colombian President Gustavo Petro confirmed on May 12 that he personally ordered an air-strike against an ELN camp in rural Tibú, Norte de Santander, in the early hours of May 11; the operation killed at least seven members of the ELN’s central command security ring. —The Petro quote: “I gave the […]

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Key Facts —The headline: Colombia’s state-owned Ecopetrol (NYSE: EC; BVC: ECOPETROL) reported a net profit of COP$2.88 trillion (US$742 million) for Q1 2026, down 7.7% year-on-year and the company’s weakest first quarter since the COVID-19 pandemic shock of Q1 2020. —The revenue compression: Total revenue fell 8.7% to COP$28.6 trillion (US$7.36 billion) from COP$31.3 trillion […]

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Key Facts —The headline: Genial/Quaest’s May 13 poll shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 42% to Senator Flávio Bolsonaro’s 41% in a potential second-round vote, a numerical edge inside the 2-point margin of error and a reversal from the April poll, when Flávio led 42% to 40%. —The first round: Lula leads 39% […]

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Key Facts —The headline: The International Energy Agency reported on May 13 that global oil reserves fell by 117 million barrels in April, on top of a 129 million-barrel drop in March, marking the fastest pace of inventory drawdown in the agency’s reporting history. —The supply collapse: Global oil supply fell by 1.8 million barrels […]

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Wednesday saw North American markets digesting a hot April PPI print. The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 7,400.96 (-0.16%); Nasdaq 26,088.20 (-0.71%); Dow 49,760.56 (+0.11%). Apple closed Tuesday at $294.80, a fresh all-time closing high; trading around $294.49 Wednesday. The S&P/TSX Composite traded around 34,291.   The day’s secondary tracks: Kevin Warsh confirmed by the […]

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Key Facts —Effective date: the European Commission removed Brazil from its list of countries authorized to export animal products to the EU on May 12, 2026, with the ban taking effect September 3. —Scope: the veto covers cattle, horses, poultry, eggs, aquaculture, honey, casings and other animal-origin products from Brazil — both live animals and […]

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Key Facts —Spain ended its Golden Visa program entirely on April 3, 2025 under Ley Orgánica 1/2025, eliminating all five investment paths including real estate, public debt, equities, funds and entrepreneurial projects. —Portugal stripped real estate from its Golden Visa in 2023 and tightened naturalization to 10 years of effective residency from five; processing times […]

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