For Donald J. Trump, 2026 was a year full of promise. It began in the early hours of January 3 with a spectacular barrage of fire over Caracas. After months of anticipation surrounding the deployment of the fleet in the Caribbean, the capture of Nicolás Maduro scored a point for him, demonstrating his military’s ability to succeed in complex missions. That same day, he announced a new era of the Monroe Doctrine. Hard power was back. But there was something more important: the prospect of starting an election year on the right foot, carefully managing that success, and trying, in the meantime, to stabilize the economy in the lead-up to the midterm elections in November.

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