For Donald J. Trump, 2026 was a year full of promise. It began in the early hours of January 3 with a spectacular barrage of fire over Caracas. After months of anticipation surrounding the deployment of the fleet in the Caribbean, the capture of Nicolás Maduro scored a point for him, demonstrating his military’s ability to succeed in complex missions. That same day, he announced a new era of the Monroe Doctrine. Hard power was back. But there was something more important: the prospect of starting an election year on the right foot, carefully managing that success, and trying, in the meantime, to stabilize the economy in the lead-up to the midterm elections in November.

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Constant blackouts, transportation grinding to a halt for lack of fuel, shortages of food and medicine, mass exodus, the loss of its strongest ally, and direct threats from its historic adversary. This is Cuba in the 67th year of the Revolution. From the outside, it may look as if the government in Havana could fall at any moment, but the regime built by Fidel Castro has weathered many crises. Its demise has been predicted countless times, yet that ending has never arrived.

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