Financial markets are betting the Reserve Bank will hike interest rates for a third straight meeting next Tuesday

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Inflation jumped to 4.6% in the year to March, from 3.7% the month before, in what the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, warned was the start of an Iran war-linked fuel shock that will ripple through the economy over coming months.

With consumer prices now growing at their fastest pace in two-and-a-half years, financial markets are betting the Reserve Bank will hike interest rates for a third straight meeting next Tuesday as officials struggle to manage the nightmare scenario of containing inflation even as growth is expected to slow sharply.

Niesr says even under best-case scenario, economy would grow at slower pace in 2026 and 2027 because of conflict

Britain is facing a £35bn economic hit and the risk of a recession this year as the fallout from the Iran war adds to the pressure on Keir Starmer’s government, a leading thinktank has warned.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr) said that even under a best-case scenario the UK economy would grow at a much slower pace this year and next because of the Middle East conflict.