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UK faces £35bn hit and risk of recession this year over impact of Iran war, thinktank warns Richard Partington Senior economics correspondent
Niesr says even under best-case scenario, economy would grow at slower pace in 2026 and 2027 because of conflictBritain is facing a £35bn economic hit and the risk of a recession this year as the fallout from the Iran war adds to the pressure on Keir Starmer’s government, a leading thinktank has warned.The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr) said that even under a best-case scenario the UK economy would grow at a much slower pace this year and next because of the Middle Ea
28 April 2026 at 23:01

UK faces £35bn hit and risk of recession this year over impact of Iran war, thinktank warns

By: Richard Partington Senior economics correspondent

28 April 2026 at 23:01

Niesr says even under best-case scenario, economy would grow at slower pace in 2026 and 2027 because of conflict

Britain is facing a £35bn economic hit and the risk of a recession this year as the fallout from the Iran war adds to the pressure on Keir Starmer’s government, a leading thinktank has warned.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr) said that even under a best-case scenario the UK economy would grow at a much slower pace this year and next because of the Middle East conflict.