Niesr says even under best-case scenario, economy would grow at slower pace in 2026 and 2027 because of conflict

Britain is facing a £35bn economic hit and the risk of a recession this year as the fallout from the Iran war adds to the pressure on Keir Starmer’s government, a leading thinktank has warned.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr) said that even under a best-case scenario the UK economy would grow at a much slower pace this year and next because of the Middle East conflict.

ONS says sales rose by 0.7% in March, spurred by motorists filling their tanks and sunny weather helping retailers

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Motorists stocking up on fuel helped to push up retail sales in Great Britain last month as the Iran war prompted “panic at the pumps” amid rapid rises in petrol and diesel prices.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that the volume of retail sales rose by 0.7% last month, well above analysts’ forecasts of just 0.1%.