Financial markets are betting the Reserve Bank will hike interest rates for a third straight meeting next Tuesday

• Follow our Australia news live blog for latest updates

• Get our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcast

Inflation jumped to 4.6% in the year to March, from 3.7% the month before, in what the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, warned was the start of an Iran war-linked fuel shock that will ripple through the economy over coming months.

With consumer prices now growing at their fastest pace in two-and-a-half years, financial markets are betting the Reserve Bank will hike interest rates for a third straight meeting next Tuesday as officials struggle to manage the nightmare scenario of containing inflation even as growth is expected to slow sharply.

Niesr says even under best-case scenario, economy would grow at slower pace in 2026 and 2027 because of conflict

Britain is facing a £35bn economic hit and the risk of a recession this year as the fallout from the Iran war adds to the pressure on Keir Starmer’s government, a leading thinktank has warned.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr) said that even under a best-case scenario the UK economy would grow at a much slower pace this year and next because of the Middle East conflict.

A poll shows most Australians think the country is either in a recession or will be soon. Economists have a different view

• Get our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcast

Australian households were already on edge before the bombs started falling in Iran.

The cost of living was high and inflation was accelerating again, forcing the Reserve Bank to start ratcheting up interest rates.

Annual March rate shows impact of Iran war, which also pushed up cost of food and air fares

• Business live – latest updates

UK inflation accelerated to 3.3% in March after the Iran war triggered the biggest jump in fuel prices for more than three years.

In the first official snapshot of the damage to living standards in Britain from the US-Israeli war on Iran, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the consumer prices index increased last month from a rate of 3% in February. The rise matched the forecasts by City economists.

HSBC, Barclays, Lloyds, NatWest and Santander will this week discuss with chancellor how to limit effects of conflict

• Middle East crisis – live updates

The bosses of Britain’s “big five” retail banks have been summoned to a meeting with the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, this week to discuss how to limit the economic impact of the crisis in the Middle East triggered by the US and Israel’s attacks on Iran.

The chief executives of HSBC, Barclays, Lloyds, NatWest and Santander have been asked to attend an emergency summit on Wednesday, amid increasing acceptance that a major economic hit from the Iran war is unavoidable.