SINGAPORE: When the United Arab Emirates announced on Tuesday (April 28) that it was leaving the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which it had been part of for more than 50 years, this understandably made the headlines amid the backdrop of the conflict in the Middle East that has caused widespread global impacts.

Nevertheless, many analysts say that the short-term impact of the UAE’s decision is limited. Over the long term, however, the announcement is likely to be potentially important for oil prices and market stability.

This is important for Southeast Asia, including Singapore, because it affects the price of energy, which translates to changes in transport costs, which in turn affect people’s daily expenses.

While there is likely to be no noticeable change in daily life, over the long-term, the UAE’s decision may result in lower fuel and transport costs, and the region could benefit from cheaper logistics and trade flows. However, more volatility in the price of oil may also be expected.

Leaving OPEC

The conflict in the Middle East started on Feb 28, when the United States and Israel began bombing Iran. It has resulted in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint over which a fifth of the world’s energy needs transit.

The war in Iran has caused OPEC’s oil production to fall by 27%, which translates to 7.88 million barrels a day. This is the largest supply collapse OPEC has seen in the past few decades, The Guardian reported.

For the UAE, one of the most heavily-targeted countries by Iran’s retaliation, oil production decreased by 44% last month. The Emirati government said it was leaving OPEC in order to increase its oil production and meet the market’s long-term needs. Adnoc, which is run by the state, said that it is able to increase proaction from 3.4 million barrels each day before Feb 28 to 5 million barrels by 2027.

What this means for Asia

As Asia is the world’s largest oil-importing region, it is very sensitive to price changes. If the UAE is indeed able to pump more oil in the coming years and add to the global supply, this could mean lower oil prices or volatility in the market, with some analysts estimating that the price of oil could drop between US$5 and US$10 (S$6.39 and S$12.77) per barrel.

When oil prices drop, it means the cheaper importation of fuel, which in turn means reduced electricity, manufacturing, and aviation costs.

Furthermore, with trade and shipping being important to Southeast Asia, cheaper fuel could reduce global shipping costs, which is advantageous for trade flows to the region. Also, as Southeast Asia is heavily export-driven, especially in terms of electronics and manufacturing, lower logistics costs can boost competitiveness, which is also beneficial.

However, the UAE leaving OPEC also means weaker coordination, which could cause more swings in the price of oil, not just lower prices

What it means specifically for Singapore

In Southeast Asia, Singapore is a special case because it’s not just a consumer, it’s a major oil trading and refining hub.

In terms of everyday life in Singapore, changes in fuel prices are apt to be felt in terms of pump prices for car owners, electricity tariffs, airfares and shipping costs, and, as transport costs are affected, food prices as well.

As for businesses, Singapore may actually benefit from the UAE’s separation from OPEC, as it gives the city-state more trading opportunities. Furthermore, with Singapore being a global oil hub, it is to be noted as well that volatility often increases trading activity and margins.

How soon will the world be affected by the UAE’s choice?

Analysts are saying that the Emirati government’s division is unlikely to be felt quite yet. Reuters quoted HSBC saying on April 28 that it will have a “limited near-term impact” due to the current closure of the Strait of Hormuz. An increase in the UAE’s oil supply will most likely be a gradual one over the next 12 to 18 months. /TISG

Read also: Instability affects Southeast Asia, China positions itself as steady regional partner

This article (UAE exits OPEC: What it means for Singapore and Southeast Asia) first appeared on The Independent Singapore News.

The fuel crisis is seeing more voters keen to shift to renewable energy rather than stick with fossil fuels

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Most Australians support taxing profits from gas exports and extending the cut to the fuel excise, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll, despite Anthony Albanese on Wednesday ruling out a new tax on existing gas export contracts.

The poll also found the fuel crisis is seeing more voters keen to shift to renewable energy rather than stick with fossil fuels. Australians also say they are already cutting back on travel, switching to public transport and reducing their use of aircon and heating amid the global fuel uncertainty.

KUALA LUMPUR, April 29 — Communications Minister Datuk Fahmi Fadzil said crude oil supply remains stable in the immediate term, with no disruptions expected for May and June, particularly involving Petronas.

He said the matter was raised during yesterday’s National Economic Action Council (MTEN) meeting, where current supply conditions were assessed as satisfactory.

“Based on the information presented, supply — particularly for Petronas — remains at a satisfactory level for May and June. InsyaAllah, there should be no issues,” he said during the ministry’s weekly online press conference.

He also said the meeting reviewed and continues to monitor global oil price movements, including crude oil and refined petroleum products such as RON95 and diesel.

He said the situation is closely linked to the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which remains a key factor influencing global energy market volatility.

In light of these developments, Fahmi said the government is reviewing several subsidy-related measures and initiatives, including BUDI Madani RON95, BUDI Diesel and BUDI Individu.

“These mechanisms will be adjusted in line with developments in global supply conditions and oil prices,” he said.

Responding to questions on two vessels reportedly stranded in the Strait of Hormuz and ships said to be returning to Malaysia, he said there are currently no new updates.

“At present, there are no new updates. The vessels chartered or arranged by Malaysian companies remain stranded due to restrictions imposed by the parties involved in the ongoing conflict,” Fahmi said.

On whether diesel subsidy prices in Sabah and Sarawak would be reduced in line with Peninsular Malaysia, Fahmi said the matter has not yet been discussed.

He added that the government’s current focus is on developing a more targeted subsidy mechanism, including proposals similar to BUDI RON95 but adapted for diesel users, which remain under consideration by the Ministry of Finance.

Financial markets are betting the Reserve Bank will hike interest rates for a third straight meeting next Tuesday

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Inflation jumped to 4.6% in the year to March, from 3.7% the month before, in what the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, warned was the start of an Iran war-linked fuel shock that will ripple through the economy over coming months.

With consumer prices now growing at their fastest pace in two-and-a-half years, financial markets are betting the Reserve Bank will hike interest rates for a third straight meeting next Tuesday as officials struggle to manage the nightmare scenario of containing inflation even as growth is expected to slow sharply.

KUALA LUMPUR, April 28 — Selected food prices in Malaysia remain broadly stable, with cost-of-living pressures still contained despite early signs of rising input costs, Economy Minister Akmal Nasrullah Mohd Nasir said today.

He said most food items are continuing to move within a controlled range, with only modest price changes recorded.

“For the period from 20 to 22 April 2026, selected food prices remained on a controlled trend, with price changes kept below 10 per cent,” he said in an online global supply briefing today.

He said the average price of standard chicken rose by 3.3 per cent to RM9.70 per kilogramme, while Grade C chicken eggs increased by 7.3 per cent to RM3.93 per 10 pieces.

However, he said beef prices declined by 3.8 per cent to RM35.92 per kilogramme.

As for produce, Akmal said mustard greens increased from RM6.16 o RM6.51 per kilogramme, spinach rose by almost 5 per cent to RM5.59 per kilogramme, and fresh coconut milk increased by 3.6 per cent to RM16.41 per kilogramme. 

“This trend indicates that cost and logistics pressures are beginning to signal early stress within the domestic food supply chain.

“For this reason, monitoring cannot be confined to retail prices alone but must begin upstream, covering fertiliser, diesel, energy, raw materials, production, transportation and distribution,” he said. 

He said the government will continue to monitor and implement appropriate measures to help mitigate the impact on consumers and maintain price stability.

KUALA LUMPUR, April 28 — Malaysia’s electricity supply remains stable, but rising and volatile global fuel prices could push up generation costs and eventually affect tariffs if pressures persist, Economy Minister Akmal Nasrullah Mohd Nasir said today.

He said the main risk is not from power shortages, but the impact of fluctuating coal and gas prices on electricity production costs.

“When fuel costs such as coal and gas rise, the cost of generating electricity increases accordingly. Ultimately, this pressure may affect electricity tariffs for consumers if it is not managed carefully,” he said in an online briefing on the global supply crisis today. 

As of April 25, Akmal said Malaysia’s electricity generation mix remains heavily dependent on coal at 54 per cent and gas at 40 per cent, leaving the system significantly exposed to movements in global energy markets.

He added that coal imports in the first quarter of 2026 totalled 7.94 million metric tonnes, with full-year requirements projected at 35.99 million metric tonnes. 

“The Energy Commission is closely monitoring stock levels at power plants to ensure minimum supply requirements are consistently maintained,” he said.

For gas, Akmal said the average consumption for electricity generation in the first quarter stood at around 1,011 million standard cubic feet per day, largely supplied from domestic sources in Kerteh. 

However, he said the share of gas in the generation mix is expected to decline in July and August due to scheduled maintenance that will temporarily reduce supply to the power sector.

“In this context, the national electricity system must maintain flexibility to utilise alternative fuel sources to ensure continued stability of supply. At the same time, electricity demand is rising,” he said.

Between April 20 and 25, he said the average peak demand increased by 1.9 per cent to 20,640 megawatt (MW), compared with 20,257 MW the previous week. 

He said a new peak of 21,468 MW was also recorded on April 23, surpassing the previous high of 21,276 MW.

“This increase has been largely driven by hot weather, which has led to higher use of air conditioning in homes, businesses and workplaces. 

“As previously stated, there is a lagging effect in electricity supply, whereby the impact of rising fuel prices is only felt around two months after the initial shock,” he said. 

Akmal then went on to say that for May 2026, the cost of electricity generation is projected to rise, driven by coal prices increasing to RM21.28 per million British Thermal Unit (BTU), compared with the base price of RM19.14 per million BTU.

He then said that the government has given assurances that measures are in place to mitigate the impact on consumers, with around 7.5 million domestic users, or 85 per cent of households consuming below 600 kWh, continuing to be fully exempted from the Automatic Fuel Adjustment charge.

He urged consumers to adopt energy-saving practices, including moderating air-conditioning use, switching off unused appliances, and reducing consumption during peak hours to help ease demand and stabilise generation costs.