It’s India’s turn at the helm of BRICS this year and its position in the bloc — once seen as a counterweight to Western-dominated alliances and a US-led international order — couldn’t be more incongruous. As New Delhi prepares to host the 18th BRICS summit in September this year, India finds itself presiding over a divided grouping while becoming increasingly isolated within it.

The BRICS grouping was already beset with contradictions but the ongoing Iran war seems to have split it wide open. Once projected as a platform for coordinated political assertion, for its commitment to multipolarity, it now appears incapable of even issuing a joint statement on a major geopolitical crisis involving one of its own members.

The BRICS MENA meeting, of deputy foreign ministers and special envoys of West Asia and North Africa, in New Delhi on 23–24 April, ended without consensus, forcing New Delhi to fall back on issuing a ‘chair’s summary’ rather than a collective declaration. That distinction is not procedural; it’s political — you get a chair’s summary when you lack consensus.

The divisions in the group are structural. Iran, now a BRICS member, expected solidarity from the bloc in the face of military confrontation. Yet other members, particularly the UAE, which has since withdrawn from OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries), resisted the use of strong language against the US and Israel. China and Russia leant towards Tehran. India equivocated with vague expressions of concern.

This paralysis has left BRICS unable to take a stand even when a member state has been attacked, when its leaders have been assassinated. Draft statements have failed and negotiations have stalled.

India’s role in this deadlock has been revealing. As chair, it was expected to provide direction but has instead chosen ambiguity. India’s reluctance to take a firm stand reveals the contradictions in the Modi government’s foreign policy.

In pursuing what its external affairs minister S. Jaishankar describes as ‘strategic autonomy’, India has developed trade, defence and strategic partnerships with the US and Israel, economic and energy ties with the Gulf, and cultural and diplomatic cooperation with Iran. With the war forcing a show of hands, India has tried to hedge to avoid alienating anyone.

But within BRICS, a grouping that increasingly defines itself through a critique of US dominance, that ambiguity comes at a cost. India’s refusal to take a position on a conflict involving BRICS bête noire US and a BRICS member is seen not as prudence but a lack of commitment. Iran has openly expressed its expectation that India, as BRICS chair, will mobilise the bloc in its favour, but New Delhi’s interests are too deeply embedded in the US–Israel alliance to hazard such a stance.

At the same time, China’s influence within the grouping continues to expand. The enlargement of BRICS, often presented as a sign of its growing global appeal, has in fact strengthened Beijing’s centrality. Many of the newer members share closer strategic alignment with China than with India. The balance within BRICS has shifted decisively. India is no longer a co-equal pillar. It has become a dispensable player in a structure increasingly shaped by China.

This shift has made India’s position more uncomfortable. Its strained bilateral relations with China, marked by unresolved border conflicts and strategic rivalry, limits the possibility of meaningful cooperation within BRICS.

India’s position is further complicated by Trump’s warnings of imposing punitive tariffs on countries pursuing alternative trade arrangements under BRICS. Wary of the Trump administration, the Modi government won’t risk taking a stand that might invite retaliation at various levels it cannot afford.

Consequently, New Delhi has been hesitant about endorsing initiatives that will be seen as a challenge to a US-dominated global economic order. Take for instance, talks of de-dollarisation.

The consequence is a narrowing of India’s strategic space within BRICS. It cannot fully align with the bloc’s more assertive agenda without risking economic and diplomatic repercussions. Yet by holding back, it undermines its standing within the group.

The internal contradictions of BRICS have never been so thoroughly exposed. For the first time, the grouping is confronting a situation where its members are divided over an ongoing military conflict involving one of their own. The inability to forge a consensus reflects deep incompatibilities.

India’s chairmanship has coincided with this rupture, and its own ambiguity has rendered it totally ineffective in managing the contradictions in the group. If anything, the crisis has exposed the limits of India’s influence.

The implications for the upcoming summit are difficult to ignore. Expectations are low. China’s President is unlikely to attend. With divisions unresolved and no shared strategic direction, the summit is unlikely to produce anything of consequence. At best, it will generate carefully worded statements that skirt contentious issues. And this, in turn, will reinforce the perception that India has no locus to lead the Global South.

This moment also raises big questions about India’s foreign policy. Its attempt to straddle competing geopolitical alignments is hard to sustain. Within BRICS, that strategy is already failing. The more India hedges, the more space China occupies. The more India avoids taking a stand on global issues, the less influence it commands.

The credibility of BRICS as the pivot of an alternative global order was already fading. Under India’s chairmanship, that decline has become unmistakable. The grouping continues to expand, add members and meet, but its capacity for meaningful collective action is eroding.

The Modi government’s failure to define a clear role for India within the bloc means that India now chairs BRICS without commanding it. It will play host without shaping the outcome in any way. The September summit in New Delhi will only lay bare its irrelevance.

Ashok Swain is a professor of peace and conflict research at Uppsala University, Sweden. More by the author here

Hundreds of VVPAT slips were found about 10 km from Garulia in West Bengal's Noapara Assembly segment under the Barrackpore Lok Sabha constituency on Sunday evening, triggering political tension on the eve of counting for the state's just-concluded Assembly elections. The slips reportedly carried stamps of the CPI(M) and the state's ruling TMC, with very few for BJP.

TMC candidate Trinankur Bhattacharya accused the BJP and Election Commission of India (ECI) of undermining the electoral process and demanded an explanation, alleging attempts to favour the BJP. CPI(M) candidate Gargee Chatterjee said party workers found the slips and informed the police, alleging that officials forcibly removed them despite objections. She added that the matter would be reported to the ECI.

BJP candidate Arjun Singh visited the site, questioned how the slips were dumped, and demanded a police seizure list. He warned that if EVM counts do not match VVPAT slips, results from the booth should be withheld, alleging a conspiracy involving the TMC and election officials.

The development comes as political tensions mount across the state ahead of vote counting across 293 Assembly constituencies on Monday, 4 May.

West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee has urged her party workers to remain vigilant and avoid complacency, with the TMC leadership making it clear that every stage of the counting process will be closely monitored.

On Sunday evening, Banerjee convened a meeting at her residence with counting agents, councillors and ward presidents from the Bhabanipur Assembly constituency in south Kolkata. The meeting followed a virtual session held a day earlier, where she and TMC national general-secretary Abhishek Banerjee addressed party leaders and candidates across the state.

According to party sources, the chief minister is keen to “leave no stone unturned” and ensure that workers remain alert until the final results are declared. One ward president, speaking on condition of anonymity, said, “Despite the virtual meeting on Saturday, she called us to her home not just to boost us up but also give us some last-minute tips. Though we have done homework all through the year, a last-minute revision is always helpful. TMC will form the government beyond doubt.”

However, the leader also hinted at underlying concerns, adding that the margin of victory would be significant. “The question of the margin of seats and the actual seat numbers matter. Otherwise, there might be restlessness and horse-trading after the results are out,” he said.

Bhabanipur remains one of the most closely watched constituencies in the state, as Banerjee faces off against leader of opposition and state BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari. The contest has drawn particular attention as it mirrors the high-profile 2021 battle in Nandigram in Purba Medinipur district, where Banerjee was defeated by Adhikari after alleged irregularities during counting.

Voting in Bhabanipur was held on 29 April during the second phase of the elections. Ahead of counting day, both major parties have intensified preparations, holding meetings with their respective workers and counting agents. Adhikari, too, held an urgent meeting with BJP workers at the party’s office in Bhabanipur on Saturday.

Meanwhile, concerns about the integrity of the counting process have led to heightened tensions across the state. Both TMC and BJP have expressed fears of potential manipulation, particularly at strong rooms where electronic voting machines (EVMs) are stored. Addressing these concerns, state chief electoral officer Manoj Agarwal said, “We are fully prepared for the counting process; there will be no disruptions.”

Special election observer Subrata Gupta dismissed allegations of tampering, stating, “There is absolutely no possibility of any vote theft.” He added that authorities are reviewing arrangements around counting centres, including crowd control and potential victory processions.

To strengthen oversight, the ECI has appointed 431 counting observers across the state, excluding the Falta constituency. North 24 Parganas has the highest number, with 49 observers covering 33 constituencies, while Alipurduar has the fewest, with six observers for five constituencies.

Amid the political activity, civil society groups have also stepped in. The Desh Bachao Ganamancha continued its sit-in protest for a second day in Kolkata, demanding transparency in the counting process and safeguards against alleged EVM manipulation. Demonstrators gathered on Jawaharlal Nehru Road, voicing concerns over the political climate and accusing the BJP of divisive politics.

Speakers at the protest also questioned the neutrality of the ECI. The demonstration was attended by several intellectuals, artists and public figures, reflecting broader public anxiety ahead of the results.

As counting day approaches, the atmosphere across West Bengal remains tense, with political parties, officials and citizens awaiting an outcome that could significantly shape the state’s political future.

Akhilesh Yadav on Sunday alleged that the Bharatiya Janata Party, in collusion with the Election Commission of India, had carried out a “rehearsal” during Uttar Pradesh Assembly bypolls that was later replicated during the West Bengal Assembly elections.

Addressing reporters at the Samajwadi Party office in Lucknow ahead of counting day in Bengal, the former Uttar Pradesh chief minister asserted that despite “all adversities”, Mamata Banerjee would retain power.

“Didi was there, and Didi will stay; Didi will win,” Yadav said.

Alleges ‘strategic deployment’ of officials

Yadav claimed that during Assembly by-elections in Uttar Pradesh, particularly in Rampur, polling personnel and officials were deliberately selected and deployed in a coordinated manner.

“However, during the by-elections held across Uttar Pradesh, including in Rampur, it was observed that presiding officers, staff and officials were hand-picked and strategically deployed. Perhaps the BJP, in collusion with the Election Commission, conducted a trial run in Uttar Pradesh. You could also call it a ‘rehearsal’. They did this in Uttar Pradesh, and then they replicated it in Bengal,” he alleged.

The SP chief stressed that the Election Commission must function impartially and strengthen democratic institutions.

“The Election Commission is a constitutional body that must remain neutral. It must not discriminate against anyone, remain impartial and strengthen democracy,” Yadav said.

Claims ‘parallel law and order structure’ in Bengal

He further alleged that central security forces and paramilitary personnel had effectively created a parallel administrative structure in West Bengal during the elections.

“I have received information that a parallel law and order structure involving paramilitary and central forces has been established in West Bengal,” he claimed.

However, he maintained that the final verdict would still reflect the will of the people.

“Despite such attempts, the results of the election will be decided by the people,” he said.

High-stakes Bengal counting on Monday

West Bengal is set for counting of votes on Monday after a prolonged and intensely fought election campaign.

The outcome will determine whether the ruling Trinamool Congress retains power for another term or whether the BJP succeeds in forming its first government in the state.

The Communist Party of India (Marxist) and the Indian National Congress are also hoping to regain political ground after being virtually wiped out in the 2021 Assembly elections.

Counting at 77 centres

Counting will take place at 77 centres across West Bengal under elaborate security arrangements.

Results will be declared for 293 of the state’s 294 Assembly seats.

The two-phase polling process concluded on 29 April.

According to the Election Commission, the state recorded its highest-ever voter turnout since Independence, with 92.47 per cent of eligible voters casting their ballots.

Pinarayi Vijayan on Sunday demanded that the Centre immediately withdraw the recent sharp increase in LPG prices, alleging that the move had severely burdened ordinary households, migrant workers and small businesses already struggling under economic pressure.

In a statement, the Kerala chief minister described the latest increase as “one of the most cruel” cooking gas price hikes in recent years and accused the Union government of prioritising corporate profits over public welfare.

‘Cruel’ price rise hurting households, businesses

Vijayan said the price of commercial LPG cylinders had been increased by Rs 993 in a single revision, taking the cost of a 19-kg cylinder beyond Rs 3,000.

He warned that the steep rise would badly affect the hotel and restaurant sector, particularly small establishments dependent on commercial cooking gas.

The chief minister also criticised the increase in the price of 5-kg LPG cylinders by Rs 251.50, saying it would directly impact migrant labourers and economically weaker families that rely on smaller cylinders for daily cooking needs.

Vijayan alleged that the increase came immediately after the conclusion of Assembly elections in states and accused the Centre of imposing the burden only after polling had ended.

He said the move had added fresh financial stress on common people, small entrepreneurs and migrant workers.

West Asia crisis worsening fuel pressure

Referring to the ongoing Iran–United States conflict (2026) and wider instability in West Asia, Vijayan said the hospitality sector had already been facing cooking gas shortages for months.

According to him, the latest price increase would be extremely difficult for businesses to absorb.

“The burden would ultimately be passed on to consumers,” he said, warning that several small establishments, including many in Kerala, could be forced to shut down if prices continued to remain elevated.

Accuses Centre of favouring corporations

The chief minister alleged that oil companies were placing profits above public welfare.

“Such a trend of imposing additional financial burden on people cannot be accepted,” he said.

Vijayan also accused the Centre of following policies that favour corporate interests and demanded an immediate correction in approach.

He urged the Union government to roll back what he termed the “excessive hike” without delay.

The price of commercial LPG cylinders was increased by a record Rs 993 per 19-kg cylinder on 1 May, marking the third consecutive monthly increase.

The surge has been linked to rising global energy prices and disruptions in oil and gas supply chains caused by the ongoing conflict in West Asia and instability around the Strait of Hormuz.

"The tragedy is not that we are fighting over the Cauvery. It is that the river we are fighting over is slowly disappearing."

In Ayappa’s acclaimed short film The Story of Kaveri, the river speaks as a living presence, reflecting on how those who depend on it have turned against one another. That imagined yet deeply resonant voice captures the paradox of one of India’s most contested rivers.

For decades, the Cauvery has been the site of court battles, tribunal awards, protests and political negotiations. Beneath these visible struggles lies a quieter crisis. The river itself is changing.

Nearly 800 kilometres long, the Cauvery supports more than 80 million people across Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry, draining a basin of over 81,000 sq km. For centuries, it enabled a highly organised irrigation system, particularly in the delta, where paddy cultivation flourished. That long history of stability is now under strain.

At first glance, the river does not appear broken. Each monsoon, reservoirs fill, canals reopen and water flows into fields. What this seasonal recovery conceals is the Cauvery’s increasing inability to convert rainfall into reliable flows.

Rainfall is not necessarily declining. Climate projections suggest that parts of peninsular India may receive stable or even slightly higher precipitation. Yet the river itself is expected to carry less water.

A basin-scale climate study by IIT Gandhinagar (published this year in Earth’s Future) used CMIP6 climate models to show that effective water availability in the Cauvery basin will continue to decline until at least 2050, beyond which recovery remains uncertain. The study estimates a further reduction of around 3.5 per cent in flows between 2026 and 2050. This may appear modest, but it follows a much larger historical decline: streamflow in the Cauvery dropped by nearly 28 per cent between 1951 and 2012.

‘The Cauvery basin stands out as an exception,’ the study notes. ‘While several Indian rivers may see increased discharge, this basin shows a persistent decline due to rising evapotranspiration and altered rainfall patterns.’

Unlike Himalayan rivers, the Cauvery has no glacial buffer. It depends almost entirely on monsoon rainfall. That dependence is now becoming a vulnerability.

What is changing is not just how much rain falls, but how it behaves. Increasingly, rainfall arrives in short, intense bursts followed by prolonged dry spells. A study on precipitation trends by Tamil Nadu Agricultural University notes that ‘short-duration extreme rainfall events are increasing in frequency and intensity, leading to higher runoff and reduced infiltration.’

Rapid runoff reduces groundwater recharge, weakening the base flows that sustain rivers during dry periods. At the same time, rising temperatures increase evapotranspiration, meaning more water is lost to the atmosphere.

The result is hydrological decoupling. Rainfall no longer translates into river flow in a predictable manner. Reservoirs fill quickly during intense rainfall events but struggle to retain levels through extended dry periods. Farmers who once relied on predictable irrigation cycles now face uncertainty within a single season.

Human intervention has heightened this instability. The Cauvery is one of India’s most regulated rivers, with major dams such as Krishnaraja Sagar in Karnataka and Mettur in Tamil Nadu. Built to stabilise irrigation, these dams also altered the river’s natural rhythms.

Flood pulses that once replenished floodplains are curtailed. Sediment that sustained the delta is trapped upstream. Lean-season flows now depend on administrative decisions rather than ecological continuity. ‘The regulation of flows has reduced the river’s resilience,’ note basin-level assessments.

The consequences are most visible in the Cauvery delta. Spread across nearly 14.7 lakh hectares and contributing about 45 per cent of Tamil Nadu’s rice production, the delta has been the backbone of the state’s agrarian economy.

Today, reduced freshwater inflows, erratic rainfall and rising sea levels are reshaping the region. Salinity is pushing inland. Groundwater is turning brackish. Coastal erosion is increasing. Studies indicate that seawater intrusion has intensified as freshwater discharge weakens.

In parts of Thanjavur and Nagapattinam, cropping intensity has declined. Traditional kuruvai and samba cultivation cycles are becoming harder to sustain. Some farmers are shifting to pulses or aquaculture. Others are leaving the land fallow.

“We cannot plan anymore,” says K. Veerapandi, a farmer from Thiruvaiyaru. “Water may come, or it may not. Even if it comes, we don’t know when.”

Leaders of farmer organisations echo this uncertainty. P.R. Pandian of the Cauvery Delta Farmers Protection Association notes that unpredictable releases make cultivation increasingly risky. Activist Ayyakannu has pointed to rising distress, including debt and migration.

When the region was declared a Protected Special Agriculture Zone in 2020, farmer leader S. Ranganathan said, “This will help the delta survive for more than a thousand years.” Others weren’t so hopeful. “The Bill does not have the power to stop ongoing hydrocarbon projects,” says P. Maniarasan.

Even as the state seeks to protect agriculture, large-scale extractive projects continue to be planned. Proposals by ONGC and Vedanta include drilling hundreds of hydrocarbon wells across the delta. Farmers have resisted these projects, highlighting contamination and land degradation in places like Neduvasal and Kathiramangalam.

Environmental groups warn that petrochemical and refinery projects could further strain an already fragile ecosystem. Scientific studies have found heavy metals and chemical pollutants in parts of the Cauvery, including in sediments and fish.

‘The presence of heavy metals in fish indicates bioaccumulation in the food chain,’ notes a 2024 study by N.G. Nikita Gupta and S. Arunachalam, published in Frontiers in Public Health.

Contamination comes from industrial discharge, agricultural runoff and untreated sewage. Over time, pollutants accumulate, creating long-term reservoirs of toxicity. This introduces a second dimension of scarcity. Water may be available, but not usable.

Groundwater, once a fallback, is also under severe strain. Across the basin, extraction has exceeded recharge. Borewells are going deeper. In coastal areas, falling water tables are enabling seawater intrusion.

Assessments by the Central Ground Water Board, which classify several Cauvery basin blocks as over-exploited, along with IIT Gandhinagar projections that show declining runoff, suggest the basin is approaching a point where both surface and groundwater systems will be stressed simultaneously.

Urban demand has added to the pressure. Cities like Bengaluru depend heavily on Cauvery water, intensifying competition between urban and agricultural uses.

Meanwhile, political conflicts continue. The Cauvery dispute between Karnataka and Tamil Nadu has long centred on allocation. As availability declines, the focus is shifting from sharing to scarcity.

Frameworks designed for a more stable river are struggling to adapt to a new hydrological reality. Traditional water systems that once buffered variability are weakening. Tanks, canals and local storage structures have deteriorated. Urbanisation has reduced infiltration and increased runoff. The basin is losing its ability to store water when it is available and endure scarcity when it is not.

The Cauvery can no longer be considered a perennial river that guarantees stability. It is becoming a seasonal, heavily managed, increasingly unreliable system. For millions across the basin, this transition is already felt in the unpredictability of irrigation, the deepening of wells, the risks of cultivation and the shrinking margins of survival.

While we are still fighting over the same river, the river we are fighting over is no longer the same.

K.A. Shaji is a South India–based journalist who has chronicled rural distress, caste and tribal realities, environmental struggles and development fault lines. More of his writing here

Rallies, shutdowns, memorial meetings and prayer gatherings were held across Manipur on Sunday as the state marked the third anniversary of the ethnic conflict between Meitei and Kuki communities that has left at least 260 people dead, displaced thousands and reshaped the state’s political landscape.

The violence first erupted on 3 May 2023 after a ‘Tribal Solidarity March’ organised in the hill districts to oppose the Meitei community’s demand for Scheduled Tribe status.

Three years later, the divisions remain deeply entrenched, with Meitei and Kuki organisations holding separate programmes across the state while reiterating sharply opposing political demands.

Meitei groups demand NRC, protection of Manipur’s integrity

Several Meitei civil society organisations organised rallies and public meetings across Imphal Valley districts demanding implementation of the National Register of Citizens (NRC) before the next census and protection of Manipur’s territorial integrity.

Hundreds participated in a rally at Nambol in Bishnupur district organised by the United Protection Committee.

“The rally was organised to highlight the ongoing suffering of the people and to demand accountability and justice for the victims of the conflict,” said United Protection Committee convenor Th Lamjingba.

At Iboyaima Shumang Leela Shanglen in Imphal East district, women’s groups including the Meira Paibi and the COCOMI held a public discussion titled “three years on Manipur crisis”.

“The public discourse is being held on the occasion of three years of conflict in the state in the context of armed attacks on the indigenous people of Manipur by Kuki terrorists,” said Shanta Nahakpam.

Floral tributes were also paid across several valley districts to more than 100 Meitei victims killed during the violence.

Kuki groups observe shutdown, renew separation demand

In Kuki-majority Kangpokpi district, a 12-hour shutdown called by the Committee on Tribal Unity (COTU) brought business activity to a halt, officials said.

COTU has continued to demand a separate administrative arrangement for Kukis, arguing that coexistence with Meiteis had become impossible after the violence.

Floral tributes were offered at the Martyrs’ Cemetery in Phaijang for more than 100 Kuki-Zo victims killed during the conflict.

Kuki-Zo groups also observed what they described as a “Separation Day from Meiteis” in Churachandpur district.

The Indigenous Tribal Leaders Forum (ITLF) organised a programme at Peace Ground while the Zomi Council held another at Martyrs Park.

Prayer services for victims of the violence were conducted at both venues.

ITLF spokesperson Ginza Vualzong claimed that around 250 Kuki people were killed during the conflict, while 40,000 were displaced.

He also alleged that more than 7,000 houses and around 360 churches had been destroyed.

“We can never forget these atrocities that we have faced,” Ginza said.

Conflict reshaped Manipur politics

The conflict triggered one of the most prolonged and violent internal crises in Manipur’s recent history.

The Meiteis constitute roughly 53 per cent of the state’s population and are concentrated mainly in the Imphal Valley, while tribal communities including Kukis and Nagas account for around 40 per cent and largely inhabit the hill districts.

Months of unrest eventually led to the resignation of the BJP-led government headed by N. Biren Singh on 9 February last year.

President’s Rule was imposed in the state on 13 February, with the 60-member Assembly placed under suspended animation.

The central rule was later revoked on 4 February this year shortly before the formation of a new government led by BJP leader Y. Khemchand Singh.

Despite the restoration of an elected government, core issues linked to territory, ethnic identity, security and political representation remain unresolved.

The anniversary events reflected how the conflict continues to shape public sentiment, with both Meitei and Kuki groups using the occasion to reinforce competing narratives over victimhood, legitimacy and Manipur’s future political structure.

Both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah spent several days campaigning in West Bengal and camping in Kolkata. Besides other things, Shah declared that Kolkata was a "city of slums". In his turn, PM Modi declared that while the capital was not a "slum city", its pride Jadavpur University had descended into anarchy and had become a den of, what else, "urban Naxals".

Both comments drew attention in the media; but as West Bengal gears up for counting day tomorrow, 4 May, another Gujarati, a young man from Surat, is the one who has emerged as the most talked about Gujarati in the state.

Deep Prajapati first drew attention in the third week of April when a reel began circulating of him chatting with a group of young women sitting together on the stairs of what appeared to be a college or university. The video was shot by a companion from behind as Prajapati distributed forms for ‘Annapurna Bhandar’, the BJP election offer meant to counter Mamata Banerjee’s Lakshmir Bhandar scheme with a monthly cash transfer to women of Rs 3,000.

He had come all the way from Gujarat because he felt sorry for West Bengal, he was heard saying condescendingly. The women must vote for the BJP if they wanted a change for the better, he earnestly added. The women politely smiled and shook him off.

Possibly drawn by the reel, which was shared widely, Bengali TV channel ABP Ananda caught up with him. This time in chief minister Mamata Banerjee’s constituency Bhabanipur. Prajapati, asked what brought him to the city, claimed he was visiting relatives. As an Indian citizen he was free to travel anywhere he liked, he belligerently added.

As to why he was loitering in Bhabanipur — prompting Trinamool Congress workers to single him out as an outsider who was not a voter in the constituency, possibly referring to the West Bengal chief electoral officer's directive that non-voters were to leave the constituencies even if they were visiting — he said he was just a visitor to the city, not a BJP worker. But he was aware of the "pathetic situation" in West Bengal and it was his duty to document it. As a young citizen, he told ABP Ananda, it was his responsibility to highlight the plight of Bengal. He was not committing any crime, he added.

Despite claiming he was just a casual visitor, he shared videos of a table occupied by BJP workers — seven or eight of them — on polling day in Bhabanipur, gleefully pointing to an adjacent Trinamool Congress table being manned by just one fidgety worker.

He popped up once again at the strongroom where EVMs used in the Bhabanipur constituency were kept. TMC workers claimed the strongroom was opened to BJP’s agents without informing TMC, that BJP workers were being allowed to count postal ballots.

A ruckus followed as TMC workers, alerted by the scouts at the spot, gathered and started raising slogans. Banerjee herself appeared to find out what was happening. When she finally drove out of the complex, she stopped to speak to the media and showed a video clip of BJP workers inside. Sure enough, Prajapati was prominently visible.

This time, a national TV channel, NDTV, jumped in and reported the incident. The channel also apparently aired a brief conversation with Prajapati, who parroted the line that he was just visiting his relatives in the city. This time, the TMC delved into Prajapati’s social media pages and outed photographs that established him as a BJP worker from Surat.

Prajapati has generated considerable interest and triggered some sharp questions. “Can a Bengali go to Gujarat and campaign against the BJP or visit Uttar Pradesh and speak against Yogi Adityanath in public and on TV channels? Can anyone visit BJP-ruled states and move freely, openly abusing governance in the state on regional TV channels?” asked Bengalis on social media.

They seemed both proud of their state which allows dissent and such freedom; proud that West Bengal Police ignored the provocations directed at the ruling party, which did not lead to violence — contrary to the image of the state. They also sounded outraged at the impunity with which Gujaratis were abusing the state.

A panchayat of 10 villages in Assam's Barpeta district used to be represented by one MP in the Lok Sabha and one MLA in the state Assembly. The same panchayat will now be represented by two MPs and three MLAs. This bizarre outcome, said journalist Rokibuz Zaman in a video interview to Scroll, was achieved by the Election Commission’s delimitation of constituencies in Assam in 2023.

In 2023, ignoring previous guidelines — which laid down that a block or a tehsil, the smallest administrative unit, should not be broken up — the ECI commission made the village the smallest unit and decided to split up panchayats instead. Makes sense?

A look at the map of Assam will indicate a redrawing of political boundaries that disregards natural and geographical barriers. While the idea is to ‘balance’ the number of voters in each constituency to ensure that the value of each vote remains more or less equal, delimitation can also enhance the political advantage of one political party or group of people.

Gerrymandering, to use the American term, was carried out in both Assam and Jammu and Kashmir in 2023. Being opaque and non-justiciable, no legal challenge could be mounted against the process. Having tested it in Assam, the BJP would have foisted it on the rest of the country, had it not failed to get the Delimitation Bill through Parliament on 17 April.

Experts have described the 2023 delimitation of Assam’s parliamentary and Assembly constituencies as the most “consequential and contentious exercise in the state’s recent political history” which, they believe, worked “in favour of the BJP” in the recently-concluded Assembly elections on 9 April.

The devil in Assam’s delimitation exercise lies in its details. Prima facie, the state merely complied with a constitutional mandate to redraw its electoral boundaries to reflect demographic changes. Articles 82 and 170 of the Constitution provided for such readjustment following each census.

However, constitutional amendments in 2001 and 2003 froze the total number of seats in the assembly to 126, permitting only internal reconfiguration based on the 2001 Census. This meant that Assam’s delimitation — conducted nearly 50 years after the last exercise in 1976 — was carried out using outdated demographic data.

Instead of carrying it out under the Delimitation Act, though, the exercise was conducted under Section 8A of the Representation of the People Act, 1950. This provision, specifically crafted for certain northeastern states, empowered the ECI to carry out delimitation once a presidential order lifted the earlier deferments. In February 2020, the President rescinded this deferment, paving the way for the exercise.

For Assam, this meant there was no independent Delimitation Commission, usually headed by a retired Supreme Court judge. Instead, it was the Election Commission which carried out Assam’s delimitation. Without any judicial oversight, Assam’s delimitation exercise was open to manipulation.

****

The exercise classified Assam’s districts into three categories based on population density. It allowed for a 10 per cent deviation from the average state population per constituency. This ensured that sparsely-populated hill districts were not under-represented, while densely populated areas did not dominate.

There were extensive consultations, including deliberations over 1,200 public representations. It also ensured greater representation for Scheduled Tribes and addressed the demands from autonomous and tribal regions. The state government projected the increase in reserved seats for SC and ST as part of its commitment to social justice and inclusion.

According to a retired state government official, deviation from procedure was not the only unique feature of Assam’s delimitation. It also achieved the unstated — yet obvious — objective of diluting the political influence of Muslims and other key minority communities though ‘communal gerrymandering’. This was accomplished through ‘cracking’ (splitting concentrated minority populations), ‘packing’ (consolidating them into a few seats) and ‘stacking’ (merging them with larger majority populations to ensure electoral defeat).

Constituencies like Barpeta saw significant restructuring, including the removal of Muslim-dominated areas and the conversion of the seat into a reserved SC constituency. In Naoboicha, previously a competitive seat with notable minority representation, reservation effectively altered the electoral landscape. In Katigorah, demographic reconfiguration allegedly shifted the constituency’s balance in favour of Hindus.

The net outcome was a sharp reduction in the number of constituencies where Muslim voters enjoyed influence and representation. And when communities lost influence due to delimitation, so did leaders, especially those who were at the receiving end.

“Delimitation made my seat unwinnable,” said veteran Ahom leader and former BJP MP Rajen Gohain, who quit the BJP in late 2025 after serving the party for 30 years during which he represented Nagaon in the Lok Sabha four consecutive times.

Gohain has been vocal against chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, accusing him of running the state like a “commercial enterprise” and neglecting marginalised and indigenous communities. He is also confident of winning the 2026 Assembly elections as an Asom Jatiya Parishad (AJP) nominee from Barhampur.

“The Opposition alliance is coming to power in Assam. The undercurrent of dissatisfaction against Himanta Biswa Sarma is now boiling over,” Gohain told National Herald days before counting of votes on 4 May.

The new political equations thrown up by delimitation in Assam manifested in internal bickering within the Assam BJP where Biswa Sarma has inducted and given party nomination to a new set of leaders to fight a rejuvenated Opposition.

According to the Guwahati grapevine, Amit Shah’s observation during an internal meeting that Congress-turned-BJP leader and minister Pijush Hazarika had managed to secure nomination for 15 of his followers — out of the 90 seats the BJP contested — did not go down well with Biswa Sarma.

To diminish Hazarika’s growing stature, Biswa Sarma began promoting Jayanta Malla Barman, Hazarika’s bête noire since their NSUI days, making Barman the point of contact for alliance partners like the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) and AGP (Asom Gana Parishad). Hazarika’s role was whittled down to fund and media management.

The BJP’s alliance with the BPF also meant the latter would have a greater say on the syndicates that controlled the flow of traffic through the Srirampur entry gate on the West Bengal-Assam border — a role Hazarika reportedly played with elan.

Assam’s old guard did not hide their dissatisfaction, with veteran BJP leaders like Gautam Das openly revolting against Biswa Sarma to contest as independent candidates.

While the BJP waxes euphoric over a clear-cut win in Assam, the buzz over a possible Opposition victory — captured in a number of exit polls — is getting stronger. Biswa Sarma is clearly fronting a political party that is divided, bruised and propped up by local interests, rather than steered by a grand vision for the state.

If tailored electoral rolls and redrawn constituency maps combined with shrill communal rhetoric do not yield the desired results for the BJP, the knives will soon be out for Assam’s beloved ‘mama’.

Sourabh Sen is a Kolkata-based independent writer and commentator on politics, human rights and foreign affairs. More of his writing here

Iran has proposed a 30-day roadmap to end the ongoing conflict with the United States, seeking a comprehensive settlement that includes lifting sanctions, ending the American naval blockade and halting military operations across the region, according to Iranian state-linked media reports.

The latest Iranian proposal, described as a 14-point response to Washington’s earlier nine-point framework, was conveyed to the US through Pakistan, which has been facilitating indirect communication between the two sides.

The semi-official Nour News agency, which maintains close links with Iran’s security establishment, reported that Tehran wanted all major issues resolved within 30 days and was seeking a permanent end to the war rather than another temporary ceasefire extension.

Trump says he is reviewing proposal

Donald Trump said on Saturday that he was examining the latest Iranian proposal but expressed doubts over whether it would ultimately produce an agreement.

Trump had earlier rejected a previous Iranian proposal this week, though diplomatic contacts between the two sides have continued despite the fragile nature of the three-week ceasefire currently in place.

The Iranian proposal reportedly demands:

• Complete lifting of US sanctions on Iran

• End of the US naval blockade

• Withdrawal of American military forces from the region

• Cessation of hostilities involving Israel, including operations in Lebanon

• A broader settlement replacing the current truce arrangement

Pakistan and Oman continue mediation efforts

According to Iranian media, the latest response was transmitted through Pakistani intermediaries.

Pakistan has hosted earlier rounds of indirect negotiations between Washington and Tehran during the conflict.

Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held talks on Sunday with Badr al Busaidi, whose country had earlier mediated discussions between Iran and the United States before fighting escalated.

Strait of Hormuz remains central flashpoint

The conflict continues to revolve heavily around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas trade normally passes.

Trump recently floated a fresh proposal aimed at reopening the strait while maintaining pressure on Tehran.

However, Iranian officials indicated that Tehran would not retreat from its current position regarding control over the waterway.

Iran refuses return to ‘prewar conditions’

Iranian deputy parliament speaker Ali Nikzad said Tehran would not abandon the strategic leverage it has established in the Gulf during the conflict.

“We will not back down from our position on the Strait of Hormuz, and it will not return to its prewar conditions,” Nikzad said during a visit to facilities on Larak Island near the narrowest section of the strait.

“The Strait of Hormuz belongs to the Islamic Republic of Iran,” he added.

Nikzad also claimed that Iran was working to compensate businesses and properties damaged during the war and insisted Trump’s blockade strategy would fail.

Iran insists ships can pass after paying tolls

Iran has maintained that ships not linked to the US or Israel would still be allowed to transit through the Strait of Hormuz after paying fees.

The United States, however, has warned shipping companies that any payments to Iran — including through digital assets — could trigger sanctions.

Iran effectively disrupted shipping through the strait after the US and Israel jointly launched military operations on 28 February.

Tehran later allowed selective maritime passage through routes closer to Iranian territorial waters, reportedly charging transit fees in certain cases.

US blockade squeezing Iran’s economy

The United States has maintained a naval blockade on Iranian ports since 13 April, sharply limiting Tehran’s oil exports and worsening pressure on the country’s already fragile economy.

The economic strain continues to deepen inside Iran, with the Iranian rial remaining under severe pressure amid uncertainty over sanctions, oil exports and the broader direction of negotiations.

Although large-scale direct fighting has paused under the ceasefire arrangement, tensions between Washington and Tehran remain extremely high.

Major disagreements continue over Iran’s nuclear programme, sanctions relief, regional military deployments and future control over maritime trade routes in the Gulf.

A joint call issued by civil society members from states where the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) has been conducted — and those identified for its Phase 3 rollout — has sharply criticised the Election Commission of India (ECI), alleging that the exercise has undermined its credibility and compromised electoral integrity.

The statement issued today, 3 May, claims that since the introduction and implementation of the SIR in June 2025, the ECI has “lost all credibility” and acted as a partisan body rather than fulfilling its constitutional mandate under Article 324. It also expresses “deep disappointment” with the Supreme Court, stating that it has so far been unable to defend the constitutional rights of citizens and the electorate.

According to the groups, the past year has exposed the SIR’s failure to produce an inclusive voter list and instead revealed what they describe as the Commission’s “manipulative intent”. Calling for the exercise to be stopped, the statement urges a comprehensive review, rectification and course correction before any further updating of electoral rolls. It also calls on the Supreme Court to conclude hearings on the constitutional validity of the exercise and deliver a judgment safeguarding voters’ rights.

The groups describe the SIR as “exclusionary, undemocratic, non-transparent and unscientific”, noting that its constitutional validity remains contested. They allege that in the 10 states and 3 Union Territories where the process has been carried out so far, nearly 6 crore “rightful voters” have been disenfranchised.

Citing West Bengal as an example, the statement claims that around 35 lakh voters seeking adjudication were denied verification “through no fault of theirs”, resulting in the loss of their voting rights. It further alleges that those disproportionately affected include minorities, Adivasis, Dalits and marginalised groups such as migrant workers, daily wage labourers and nomadic communities, with women bearing a greater impact.

The statement also points to instances where prominent individuals — including economist Amartya Sen, former Navy chief Arun Prakash (retd), cricketer Mohammed Shami and poet Joy Goswami — were allegedly sent notices or faced deletion from electoral rolls, alongside lakhs of ordinary citizens possessing valid documentation. In some cases, even returning officers on election duty were not spared, it said, describing this as evidence of the process’s “deeply flawed” nature.

The groups further argue that the SIR has failed in its stated objective of identifying so-called “infiltrators” and cleaning up electoral rolls, pointing instead to a lack of clarity around the rationale and decision-making behind the exercise.

Among their key demands, the signatories have called for an immediate halt to the SIR in its current form, a thorough review of the process so far, and the framing of clear rules with stringent provisions for audit and verification, in line with standards set by the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG). They have also sought the reinstatement of all “rightful voters” in states where the exercise has already been completed.

The statement further calls for a common voters’ list — from Gram Sabha to Vidhan Sabha to Lok Sabha — arguing that a transparently compiled local electoral roll should form the basis of the entire election process.

In a strong critique of the poll body, the groups allege that the ECI is no longer impartial but “politically aligned with the ruling dispensation”, and demand that it be reconstituted through a transparent process under parliamentary oversight.

Finally, the statement warns against any attempt to manipulate election outcomes in upcoming polls in states such as West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry, alleging that similar patterns were visible during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. It adds that continued disregard for constitutional principles could trigger widespread public protest.

The groundwork for a large-scale revision of electoral rolls in Delhi has already begun months before the formal announcement of the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise, with election officials carrying out voter mapping and verification across the national capital.

In a recent order issued following directions from the Chief Electoral Office Delhi, the Delhi government has directed its employees and staff of autonomous bodies to verify their names against the 2002 electoral rolls as part of the ongoing groundwork for the revision exercise.

Mapping of voters already underway

In what officials described as the first such order issued to Heads of Departments (HODs) ahead of the SIR exercise, the communication stated:

“SIR of electoral rolls is being carried out throughout India. In NCT of Delhi also, preparatory exercises for the upcoming SIR are being carried out. As per the Election Commission’s instructions, mapping of electoral roll-2025 is being done vis-à-vis electoral rolls of the last SIR i.e. 2002. For this purpose, BLOs (block level officers) are visiting houses in their allotted part for obtaining electors’ details pertaining to the year 2002.”

Officials said the Delhi government has over 5,000 employees and more than 400 bureaucrats, apart from contractual workers and Class 3 and 4 staff who would also be covered under the verification exercise.

Employees asked to cooperate with BLOs

According to officials, the 2002 voter list has been uploaded on the website of the CEO Delhi to simplify the process.

Electors can search their details by entering their Voter ID or Electors Photo Identity Card (EPIC) number.

The order also addressed employees who shifted to Delhi from other states after 2002.

“They can obtain their details from the ECI website as appearing in the voter list of 2002/2003/2005 (year of last SIR held in that particular State, as the case may be),” the order stated.

Employees have been asked to share the information with Block Level Officers during the ongoing house-to-house verification process and later during the formal SIR exercise.

“…I am directed to get this information disseminated to all employees of GNCTD/autonomous bodies through their HODs for checking their names in the electoral rolls-2002 and sharing the same with their BLOs visiting their homes,” the order added.

Officials say early mapping will ease SIR process

Election officials said the ongoing mapping exercise was intended to streamline the eventual SIR process once officially notified.

“Once the mapping of electors is done, when the actual SIR is announced, further process will be easier because we will have some data. The electors can also get their problems solved and help the mapping process,” an official said.

Political sensitivity around SIR

The Special Intensive Revision exercise has emerged as a politically sensitive issue in recent months, particularly after opposition parties raised concerns over deletion of names from electoral rolls in several states.

The Election Commission, however, has maintained that the exercise is aimed at ensuring accuracy and removing duplicate or invalid entries from voter lists.

The ongoing crisis in West Asia has exposed India’s vulnerability as the world’s third largest consumer of crude oil, importing nearly 89 per cent of its requirement i.e. around 1.75 billion barrels a year or 4.8 million barrels every day. Over 60 per cent of that flows through the geopolitically sensitive Strait of Hormuz.

In 2024-25, India’s crude oil import bill was $137 billion. If prices stay at the March average of $113.57 then the import bill would balloon to nearly $200 billion. Every $10 rise in the price of a barrel of crude adds $14 to $16 billion to India’s import bill. That is money drained from our precious foreign exchange reserves.

There is, however, a way to reduce this vulnerability.

India is gifted with a geographical location that brings blazing sunshine for more than 300 days a year. Summer heat can also be a curse — especially for the most vulnerable. April saw India at the epicentre of a global heat surge, with AQI.in reporting that 19 of the 20 hottest locations in the world were located in India, as well as 95 of the 100 hot-test cities globally. But this climate burden is simultaneously an energy opportunity of historic proportions.

India leads the International Solar Alliance, a coalition of over 120 sunshine-rich nations. In 2025, India added 38 gigawatts of new solar capacity, surpassing the United States, which added 35 gigawatts. Total installed solar capacity now stands at over 150 gigawatts, and annual solar generation has rocketed from 3.4 terawatt-hours in 2013-14 to 144 terawatt-hours in 2024-25.

On 25 April, as the brutal heatwave pushed temperatures into the mid-forties and air conditioners across north India ran at full blast, the electricity grid faced its highest ever demand: 256 gigawatts. Solar power alone was generating 81 giga-watts on that critical day. This was one-third of total national generation. The grid did not collapse. It passed the stress test.

Solar’s potential is not just about clean energy but also about securing our foreign exchange reserves.

Even a ten per cent reduction in oil import dependence would save between $13 to $20 billion annually depending on oil prices. A displacement of 100 million barrels through solar-powered electricity substituting diesel gensets, electric pumps replacing diesel pumps, and electric vehicles reducing petrol and diesel demand would still save $7.5 to $11 billion a year in foreign exchange.

There is an additional intriguing possibility: India could become an energy exporter.

India’s refining capacity of 258 million metric tonnes already exceeds its domestic consumption of 239 million metric tonnes. (This refined oil goes into trucks that move goods, tractors that farm fields, fishing boats that feed coastal communities. It also powers diesel generators that keep telecom towers humming across rural India.)

In 2025, India exported 64.7 million metric tonnes of refined petroleum products — petrol, diesel, aviation fuel — worth over $52 billion, a record high. Refining capacity is set to expand further, to 309 million metric tonnes by 2028.

If solar and electrification progressively reduce domestic fuel consumption, more and more of what India refines goes abroad, earning precious dollars. India would be importing crude, refining it far more efficiently and exporting value-added fuel — functioning as an energy hub for the region.

The trajectory, if pursued with determination, could see India transition from being an energy importer to becoming a net energy value exporter. It is conceivable.

The hurdles on the solar journey are real, but not insurmountable. Solar panels need large tracts of land. This is a genuine constraint in a country where farmland is scarce and contested. The answer lies in deploying solar panels on fallow wasteland, rooftops, highway corridors and canal banks. India already has programmes for all of these.

Solar panels also need water to wash off the thick dust that settles on them. This is a problem, especially in Rajasthan and Gujarat where solar potential is greatest, but water scarce. Waterless robotic panel cleaners are an emerging solution. India should produce these at scale domestically.

Most critically, the sun sinks every evening, but demand does not. Without storage, solar power has a structural limitation. India urgently needs massive deployment of storage systems. In 2025, India curtailed 2.3 terawatt-hours of clean solar power simply because the grid could not absorb it. That is both an engineering failure and an economic one.

Then there is the China problem. India imports most of its solar panels and components from China, which deepens trade asymmetry. However, domestic solar module manufacturing capacity has grown to 172 gigawatts. The government has set a target of domestically produced solar cells and wafers by 2028. An India that makes its own solar equipment would truly be energy sovereign.

Here are five action points:

1. Treat solar energy as national security infrastructure, equal in priority to defence. Funding should be at least doubled.

2. Invest urgently and massively in battery storage. Or every evening the grid will have to fall back on coal and diesel.

3. Upgrade the national transmission grid. Solar-rich states like Rajasthan and Gujarat need to be able to evacuate to demand centres in Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu.

4. Accelerate electric vehicle adoption across two-wheelers, three-wheeler and buses since transport is the single largest consumer of petroleum.

5. Scale rooftop solar energy through PM Surya Ghar and allied schemes.

India’s peak power demand is projected to rise further to 271 gigawatts, driven partly by rising incomes and the spread of air conditioning. The opportunity and the urgency are both enormous.

The current crisis in West Asia offers us a window. In a world where oil routes can be disrupted overnight by wars India did not start, energy independence becomes a sovereign necessity. Every gigawatt of solar power installed is one step away from the Strait of Hormuz. Every electric vehicle on the road is a barrel of oil India does not have to import. Every rooftop panel is a small act of genuine self-reliance.

The sun rises over India every morning without negotiation, without geopolitics and without a price tag. The only question is: can India harvest it at the scale and speed the moment demands?

Ajit Ranade is a noted economist. More of his writing may be found here