With voter loyalty a distant memory, the Lib Dems’ cost of living policies and criticism of Trump could gain them ground

It has been an election buildup dominated by the rise of Reform UK and the Greens, and the contrasting woes of Labour and the Tories. But there is a chance that on 8 May the Liberal Democrats, largely ignored in recent weeks, could wake up as the biggest party in English local government.

This is just one of several paradoxes for the party’s leader, Ed Davey, and his team. They are fifth in many national polls, with a rating barely changed from 2024. But Lib Dem bosses are sanguine, convinced that UK politics is now so different, so atomised, to make headline polling almost irrelevant.

Message on private Facebook group for staff said: ‘I dumped them all in a bin. They can sack me!’

Royal Mail is investigating allegations that a postal worker claimed to have “dumped” Reform UK campaign leaflets in a bin ahead of local elections on 7 May.

A post on a Facebook group for Royal Mail staff said: “My DO had reform party’s D2D today. I dumped them all in a bin. They can sack me! Idgaf!”

Prime minister has shed trusted staffers but can still turn to many genuine friends in and out of government

Given that the signs of an embattled premiership are all around – defensive-sounding interviews insisting he will be in post at the next election; a rush of stories about supposed cabinet plotting – now, more than ever, Keir Starmer needs real allies. And here, at least, there is something to feel positive about.

If you talk to most Labour MPs, Starmer most likely will not lead Labour into the next election. He may even not remain in No 10 much beyond a set of Scottish, Welsh and local English elections on 7 May, which are expected to be disastrous for his party.

Exclusive: Investigation into campaigning materials for local polls in May challenges tactical voting claims

Election leaflets are providing “grotesque” information about how to vote tactically in the May elections, using national polling data, “dodgy” bar charts and doorstep surveys to support claims about parties’ chances of winning.

Leaflets distributed by local politicians across England are claiming that only their party can win, or that another party “can’t win here”, when there is no good evidence to show this is true, a Full Fact investigation for the Guardian has revealed.

Hope Not Hate campaign identifies election hopefuls calling for a ‘white Britain’ and complaining of ‘kowtowing to the black community’

A Reform UK candidate who called for a “white Britain” and said Keir Starmer should be shot is among a number of contenders fuelling doubts about the party’s claim to have tightened up its vetting.

The past comments of Linda McFarlane and other political hopefuls have been unearthed ahead of the 7 May elections, including one who complained about “constant kowtowing to the black community” and others who endorsed the far-right activist Tommy Robinson.

All signs point to a record-low performance for Labour in May in what will be a moment of high jeopardy for Keir Starmer

Labour is on track for its worst local election performance, data analysed by the Guardian shows, in a blow that will pile further pressure on Keir Starmer’s leadership.

Barring a drastic change in fortunes, Labour’s vote-share could fall to historic lows across elections for councils in England and devolved parliaments in Wales and Scotland on 7 May, with big gains for Reform, the Greens and nationalist parties, according to recent polling.

Housing secretary also targets Reform as May elections loom, saying Farage more interested in Trump than own constituency

The Greens have welcomed activists kicked out of Labour for antisemitic views and people should be “very careful” who they vote for next month, one of Keir Starmer’s most senior ministers has said in a notable stepping-up of attacks on Zack Polanski’s party.

In a double-pronged attack on the two parties expected to make big gains in the elections on 7 May, Steve Reed also accused Nigel Farage of being more interested in talking to Donald Trump then representing his Clacton constituency.

Some fear a fragmented field of hopefuls from Labour, the Conservatives, Greens, Reform and independents could leave city ungovernable

Paul Tilsley was 23 when he was first elected for the Liberal party in Birmingham’s council elections in 1968. At that time, the UK had an unpopular Labour government facing an economic crisis, tensions around immigration and US pressure to back military action abroad.

Such a backdrop may seem familiar, but this May the local elections in Birmingham could not be more different. Tilsley, now a Liberal Democrat, faces a fragmented field with candidates from Labour, the Conservatives, the Greens, Reform UK and independents all competing for his seat and no party expected to win an overall majority on the council.