It’s India’s turn at the helm of BRICS this year and its position in the bloc — once seen as a counterweight to Western-dominated alliances and a US-led international order — couldn’t be more incongruous. As New Delhi prepares to host the 18th BRICS summit in September this year, India finds itself presiding over a divided grouping while becoming increasingly isolated within it.

The BRICS grouping was already beset with contradictions but the ongoing Iran war seems to have split it wide open. Once projected as a platform for coordinated political assertion, for its commitment to multipolarity, it now appears incapable of even issuing a joint statement on a major geopolitical crisis involving one of its own members.

The BRICS MENA meeting, of deputy foreign ministers and special envoys of West Asia and North Africa, in New Delhi on 23–24 April, ended without consensus, forcing New Delhi to fall back on issuing a ‘chair’s summary’ rather than a collective declaration. That distinction is not procedural; it’s political — you get a chair’s summary when you lack consensus.

The divisions in the group are structural. Iran, now a BRICS member, expected solidarity from the bloc in the face of military confrontation. Yet other members, particularly the UAE, which has since withdrawn from OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries), resisted the use of strong language against the US and Israel. China and Russia leant towards Tehran. India equivocated with vague expressions of concern.

This paralysis has left BRICS unable to take a stand even when a member state has been attacked, when its leaders have been assassinated. Draft statements have failed and negotiations have stalled.

India’s role in this deadlock has been revealing. As chair, it was expected to provide direction but has instead chosen ambiguity. India’s reluctance to take a firm stand reveals the contradictions in the Modi government’s foreign policy.

In pursuing what its external affairs minister S. Jaishankar describes as ‘strategic autonomy’, India has developed trade, defence and strategic partnerships with the US and Israel, economic and energy ties with the Gulf, and cultural and diplomatic cooperation with Iran. With the war forcing a show of hands, India has tried to hedge to avoid alienating anyone.

But within BRICS, a grouping that increasingly defines itself through a critique of US dominance, that ambiguity comes at a cost. India’s refusal to take a position on a conflict involving BRICS bête noire US and a BRICS member is seen not as prudence but a lack of commitment. Iran has openly expressed its expectation that India, as BRICS chair, will mobilise the bloc in its favour, but New Delhi’s interests are too deeply embedded in the US–Israel alliance to hazard such a stance.

At the same time, China’s influence within the grouping continues to expand. The enlargement of BRICS, often presented as a sign of its growing global appeal, has in fact strengthened Beijing’s centrality. Many of the newer members share closer strategic alignment with China than with India. The balance within BRICS has shifted decisively. India is no longer a co-equal pillar. It has become a dispensable player in a structure increasingly shaped by China.

This shift has made India’s position more uncomfortable. Its strained bilateral relations with China, marked by unresolved border conflicts and strategic rivalry, limits the possibility of meaningful cooperation within BRICS.

India’s position is further complicated by Trump’s warnings of imposing punitive tariffs on countries pursuing alternative trade arrangements under BRICS. Wary of the Trump administration, the Modi government won’t risk taking a stand that might invite retaliation at various levels it cannot afford.

Consequently, New Delhi has been hesitant about endorsing initiatives that will be seen as a challenge to a US-dominated global economic order. Take for instance, talks of de-dollarisation.

The consequence is a narrowing of India’s strategic space within BRICS. It cannot fully align with the bloc’s more assertive agenda without risking economic and diplomatic repercussions. Yet by holding back, it undermines its standing within the group.

The internal contradictions of BRICS have never been so thoroughly exposed. For the first time, the grouping is confronting a situation where its members are divided over an ongoing military conflict involving one of their own. The inability to forge a consensus reflects deep incompatibilities.

India’s chairmanship has coincided with this rupture, and its own ambiguity has rendered it totally ineffective in managing the contradictions in the group. If anything, the crisis has exposed the limits of India’s influence.

The implications for the upcoming summit are difficult to ignore. Expectations are low. China’s President is unlikely to attend. With divisions unresolved and no shared strategic direction, the summit is unlikely to produce anything of consequence. At best, it will generate carefully worded statements that skirt contentious issues. And this, in turn, will reinforce the perception that India has no locus to lead the Global South.

This moment also raises big questions about India’s foreign policy. Its attempt to straddle competing geopolitical alignments is hard to sustain. Within BRICS, that strategy is already failing. The more India hedges, the more space China occupies. The more India avoids taking a stand on global issues, the less influence it commands.

The credibility of BRICS as the pivot of an alternative global order was already fading. Under India’s chairmanship, that decline has become unmistakable. The grouping continues to expand, add members and meet, but its capacity for meaningful collective action is eroding.

The Modi government’s failure to define a clear role for India within the bloc means that India now chairs BRICS without commanding it. It will play host without shaping the outcome in any way. The September summit in New Delhi will only lay bare its irrelevance.

Ashok Swain is a professor of peace and conflict research at Uppsala University, Sweden. More by the author here

Hundreds of VVPAT slips were found about 10 km from Garulia in West Bengal's Noapara Assembly segment under the Barrackpore Lok Sabha constituency on Sunday evening, triggering political tension on the eve of counting for the state's just-concluded Assembly elections. The slips reportedly carried stamps of the CPI(M) and the state's ruling TMC, with very few for BJP.

TMC candidate Trinankur Bhattacharya accused the BJP and Election Commission of India (ECI) of undermining the electoral process and demanded an explanation, alleging attempts to favour the BJP. CPI(M) candidate Gargee Chatterjee said party workers found the slips and informed the police, alleging that officials forcibly removed them despite objections. She added that the matter would be reported to the ECI.

BJP candidate Arjun Singh visited the site, questioned how the slips were dumped, and demanded a police seizure list. He warned that if EVM counts do not match VVPAT slips, results from the booth should be withheld, alleging a conspiracy involving the TMC and election officials.

The development comes as political tensions mount across the state ahead of vote counting across 293 Assembly constituencies on Monday, 4 May.

West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee has urged her party workers to remain vigilant and avoid complacency, with the TMC leadership making it clear that every stage of the counting process will be closely monitored.

On Sunday evening, Banerjee convened a meeting at her residence with counting agents, councillors and ward presidents from the Bhabanipur Assembly constituency in south Kolkata. The meeting followed a virtual session held a day earlier, where she and TMC national general-secretary Abhishek Banerjee addressed party leaders and candidates across the state.

According to party sources, the chief minister is keen to “leave no stone unturned” and ensure that workers remain alert until the final results are declared. One ward president, speaking on condition of anonymity, said, “Despite the virtual meeting on Saturday, she called us to her home not just to boost us up but also give us some last-minute tips. Though we have done homework all through the year, a last-minute revision is always helpful. TMC will form the government beyond doubt.”

However, the leader also hinted at underlying concerns, adding that the margin of victory would be significant. “The question of the margin of seats and the actual seat numbers matter. Otherwise, there might be restlessness and horse-trading after the results are out,” he said.

Bhabanipur remains one of the most closely watched constituencies in the state, as Banerjee faces off against leader of opposition and state BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari. The contest has drawn particular attention as it mirrors the high-profile 2021 battle in Nandigram in Purba Medinipur district, where Banerjee was defeated by Adhikari after alleged irregularities during counting.

Voting in Bhabanipur was held on 29 April during the second phase of the elections. Ahead of counting day, both major parties have intensified preparations, holding meetings with their respective workers and counting agents. Adhikari, too, held an urgent meeting with BJP workers at the party’s office in Bhabanipur on Saturday.

Meanwhile, concerns about the integrity of the counting process have led to heightened tensions across the state. Both TMC and BJP have expressed fears of potential manipulation, particularly at strong rooms where electronic voting machines (EVMs) are stored. Addressing these concerns, state chief electoral officer Manoj Agarwal said, “We are fully prepared for the counting process; there will be no disruptions.”

Special election observer Subrata Gupta dismissed allegations of tampering, stating, “There is absolutely no possibility of any vote theft.” He added that authorities are reviewing arrangements around counting centres, including crowd control and potential victory processions.

To strengthen oversight, the ECI has appointed 431 counting observers across the state, excluding the Falta constituency. North 24 Parganas has the highest number, with 49 observers covering 33 constituencies, while Alipurduar has the fewest, with six observers for five constituencies.

Amid the political activity, civil society groups have also stepped in. The Desh Bachao Ganamancha continued its sit-in protest for a second day in Kolkata, demanding transparency in the counting process and safeguards against alleged EVM manipulation. Demonstrators gathered on Jawaharlal Nehru Road, voicing concerns over the political climate and accusing the BJP of divisive politics.

Speakers at the protest also questioned the neutrality of the ECI. The demonstration was attended by several intellectuals, artists and public figures, reflecting broader public anxiety ahead of the results.

As counting day approaches, the atmosphere across West Bengal remains tense, with political parties, officials and citizens awaiting an outcome that could significantly shape the state’s political future.