In today’s newsletter: Our diplomatic editor on whether permanent peace is possible – or whether there will be a new escalation in the conflict

Good morning. The Gulf is stuck in limbo between war and peace. Despite a ceasefire deal between the US and Iran, both sides have ramped up threats once again. A lasting end to the violence feels possible, but so does a renewed round of fighting – and more death, destruction and economic pain.

JD Vance, the US vice-president, is expected to fly to Pakistan today if Iran agrees to further talks on ending the conflict. Tehran has given mixed signals about whether they will attend and, at time of writing, it remainds unclear. Meanwhile, time is ticking away on the current two-week ceasefire, which runs out in less than 48 hours.

Iran war | JD Vance was expected to fly to Islamabad at the head of a US diplomatic delegation on Tuesday if Iran agrees to further talks in the Pakistani capital as the deadline for the current ceasefire looms.

UK politics | Keir Starmer has accused Olly Robbins of deliberately and repeatedly obstructing the truth about the Peter Mandelson vetting scandal before a high-jeopardy appearance of the sacked top official before MPs on Tuesday.

Health | Changes to microbes that live in the gut can identify people at greater risk of Parkinson’s disease long before symptoms develop, according to work that also raises hopes for new therapies.

Economy | A quarter of a million people could lose their jobs by the middle of next year as Britain “flirts with recession”, analysis suggests, after business confidence was shattered by the US-Israel war on Iran.

Technology | Apple announced on Monday that it had named a replacement for Tim Cook as CEO after nearly 15 years, with head of hardware engineering John Ternus succeeding him on 1 September. Cook will stay at the company in the role of executive chair.

Pyongyang making ‘very serious’ progress on producing weapons, with rapid rise in activity at main nuclear complex

North Korea has made “very serious” progress in its ability to produce more nuclear weapons, the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog has said, in another sign that the regime is seeking to use its nuclear arsenal to ensure its survival.

North Korea is thought to have assembled about 50 nuclear warheads, although some experts are sceptical of its claims that it is able to miniaturise them so they can be attached to long-range ballistic missiles.