Conflict appears to have reached impasse, but leaders in Tehran and Washington seem to think victory is near

The month-old ceasefire between Iran and the US appeared to be in new peril on Tuesday with a fresh barrage of Iranian missiles reported to have targeted the United Arab Emirates as US naval forces pressed ahead with efforts to reopen the strait of Hormuz.

The Iranian strike on the UAE was the second in 48 hours, and came shortly after the US defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, insisted the shaky truce that has paused the war in the Middle East was intact, despite the new increase in violence.

Coordinated attack by JNIM and the Tuareg minority inflicted significant casualties on government forces and Russian auxiliaries

When al-Qaida-affiliated Islamic militants launched a series of attacks on military bases and raids into major towns in Mali and neighbouring Burkina Faso last summer, observers suggested they had been inspired by their counterparts in Syria, who had overthrown the regime of Bashar al-Assad and taken power six months or so earlier.

Despite the tactical successes that earned them the fearful title of the “Ghost Army”, seizing swathes of territory and denying cities and the military of fuel and other essentials, the chances of Jama’at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) definitively defeating Mali’s military regime and the thousand or so Russian mercenaries hired to defend it looked poor.

Iranian intelligence apparently using intermediaries to sow fear with attacks frequently on Jewish targets

Iranian intelligence services and Revolutionary Guards operatives are recruiting teenagers through criminal intermediaries to launch a wave of low-level “hybrid warfare” attacks in Europe and the UK, according to investigators, security officials, analysts and police documents.

A first wave of attacks was launched in early March, 10 days after the US and Israel began strikes on Iran, and targeted Jewish community sites in Belgium, the Netherlands and US banks. A second wave has focused on the UK, with a series of arson and attempted arson attacks on synagogues, a Jewish charity and the offices of an Iranian opposition TV network in London.