The fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran held the great promise of the long-awaited reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the most critical maritime shipping route for global energy flows. That hope, in recent hours, has gone from vague to increasingly distant. Since Wednesday, when the truce began—with all the caveats one might add: bombs have continued to fall in various parts of the Middle East in recent days, especially in Lebanon—the volume of cargo ships has fallen even below the average of the days immediately preceding the agreement, with only a trace flow of tankers and LNG carriers. With the blockade announced this Sunday by the White House, things could get even worse: even fewer ships will pass. Or, perhaps, none at all.

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