War’s impact on UK cost of living more muted than first forecast suggesting fuel price rises have failed to spill out more widely across UK plc

• UK inflation stays at 2.8% as slowing food prices offset transport costs

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As soon as Iran choked off oil supplies through the strait of Hormuz at the start of March, there were dire warnings about rocketing UK inflation and the drastic action the Bank of England might take to rein it in.

At one point, investors were expecting as many as three quarter-point rises in interest rates before the end of the year – a sharp turnaround from earlier forecasts of rate cuts.

Exclusive: Ed Davey to make call ahead of 10th anniversary of Brexit vote, in strengthening of party’s position on EU

The Lib Dems will urge Andy Burnham to end Labour’s “torpor and timidity” towards the EU as they call for the UK to rejoin the single market, in a notable strengthening of their own position.

Ahead of the 10th anniversary of the Brexit vote next week, Ed Davey will challenge Burnham to scrap Labour’s red lines on the customs union and single market if he becomes prime minister and immediately begin talks on a more ambitious deal with the EU.