The energy world has been transformed over the past two months. The crude oil market has gone from a substantial surplus that forced the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to curb its own output to prevent prices from plummeting, to a critical situation: overnight, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, almost a fifth of global production has vanished. Nearly half of that amount has been offset, both by increased shipments through the few pipelines connecting the Persian Gulf countries to the outside world and by the still-nascent production increases at fossil fuel giants outside the region. But the shortfall remains enormous.

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