Since the time US President Donald Trump contemplated a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping during his proposed visit to Beijing on 14-15 May — rescheduled from late March — the balance of power in world affairs has shifted.

Trump’s failure to knock out Iran in an unlawful, unprovoked, pre-emptive strike — indeed to be checkmated by that proud Asian nation — means he will arrive in the Chinese capital with a relatively weak hand. India’s northern neighbour will attempt to make the best of this, though Trump is bound to spin it differently.

Joerg Wuttke, a former president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, told the media, “The US is fighting without winning, China is winning without fighting.”

William Klein, a US diplomat who organised Trump’s sojourn to Beijing in 2017, disagreed somewhat. Speaking to reporters earlier this week he said, “The leverage hasn’t changed, it hasn’t strengthened, or [at least] it hasn’t weakened because of the Iran war to date”. He did however admit, “Obviously, the Iran war casts a shadow on the visit, will shape this visit…”

Iran is China’s closest partner in the Persian Gulf. Therefore, for the People’s Republic, American aggression was not only an assault against a friend, but a proxy attack on China. Iran’s oil and gas supplies, which are vital for the Chinese economy, have been disrupted by the US Navy’s presence in the Gulf and latterly its blockade of Iranian ship movement. A former Chinese diplomat Cui Hongjian went on record to say the West Asia crisis has “seriously disrupted” China’s overall planning.

CNN quoted an informed Chinese source as giving the impression that the US’s “conflict with Iran [had] potentially strengthened its ‘negotiating position’.” Beijing views the upcoming meeting as a singular opportunity to secure a more stable long-term relationship with Washington.

“Of course, Trump would want to visit China after he’s finished with Iran, so he can project power… but if he were to attack Iran after visiting China, it would appear as if China has abandoned Iran,” the source added. America’s current control over Venezuela’s crude exports has, incidentally, hurt China considerably.

Modern China is a creation of the US. In the early 1970s, US President Richard Nixon and his Machiavellian national security adviser (later secretary of state) Henry Kissinger, not merely rescued a sinking Chinese economy under Mao Zedong, but midwifed an economic boom — to spite the Soviet Union, then Washington’s main adversary.

The avowed purpose was to drive a wedge in the communist cosmos between Moscow and Beijing so as to weaken the former. Consequently, China today is not only a fiscal giant but also a military and technological powerhouse challenging America’s more than a century-old supremacy.

The climate is not conducive to the highest-level talks that were originally envisaged to discuss and readjust economic relations between the planet’s two biggest economies. After the US supreme court nullified Trump’s hostile tariff policy, Trumps hands are somewhat tied and China’s negotiating position is stronger.

Last month, the US treasury blacklisted five Chinese refiners. The Chinese government declared Trump’s earlier executive order on the subject as unenforceable on Chinese soil. Fortune magazine highlighted the Chinese ministry of commerce announcement last week that China ‘shall not recognise’, ‘shall not enforce’ and ‘shall not comply with’ US sanctions as ‘unprecedented’. Other such acts of defiance may well be on the cards.

The world is in turmoil following the US-Israeli action against Iran, and Tehran’s tactical response of attacking US military bases and energy generating plants in the Arab nations near it and blocking the critical Strait of Hormuz. Global oil and gas prices have skyrocketed. Stock markets have collapsed. Shortages and inflation are on the rise everywhere.

China has been clever enough not to show its hand. But, along with Russia, it is one of the two behind-the-scenes forces assisting Iran to tackle US-Israel aerial bombardment. While the Islamic regime wasn’t short of drones and missiles to counteract the threat, its air defences were inadequate. China stepped in to alleviate deficiency and replenish equipment, much to Trump’s chagrin.

The Chinese sensed the vulnerability behind Trump’s bravado — which, as his plummeting approval rating among Americans reflects, no intelligent person takes seriously — and went on the offensive. In effect, the US and China are indirect combatants in the Iranian theatre of war.

While China has, admittedly, refrained from directly criticising Trump in the run-up to his trip, it is expected to leverage its vast domestic market and dominance in the rare earth supply chain.

The Chinese government’s number one ambition is to absorb capitalist pro-America Taiwan into its mainland. Since WWII, the US has provided a security guarantee to the government in Taipei, a cause of ceaseless friction between Washington and Beijing. China clearly wants the US to dial down its support for an independent Taiwan.

South China Morning Post, a longstanding daily published out of Hong Kong, carried Trump’s widely reported claim that his trip to China ‘is going to be amazing’.

The word ‘amazing’ in the English language has multiple meanings. The US president’s intended messaging is not necessarily in sync with general interpretation.

For a start, he is intellectually incapable of substantive dialogue and agreements. His tendency to opt for ‘framework’ arrangements is testimony to this. In his second term as president, his ability to attend to detail has shrunk even further with age — he is now 79. In other words, any deal with Beijing could be patchwork, even unfavourable.

From an Indian standpoint, Trump’s plan is disturbing. That he chose to go to China before coming to India — a strategic ‘partner’ — reiterated that his worldview was drastically different from that of his predecessors. It is unsurprising that he considers China to be more important to US interests than India. What is worrying is that the containment of China’s hegemonistic designs may not be his priority.

China poses the greatest of all threats to India’s security. QUAD — constituted between the US, Japan, India and Australia — was mounted to discourage Chinese expansionism. Given Trump’s recent and rather public spats — over the West Asia conflict with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and over new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s nationalist outlook — not to mention the short shrift extended to Narendra Modi, it is difficult to visualise QUAD playing a robust role during the current US presidency.

America’s closest post-war alliance has been with Europe. This is crumbling because of Trump’s softness towards the Kremlin. With US troops pulling out, NATO’s military protection to Germany — post-WWII disarmament — is being weakened. The same could occur in Spain and Italy, even Britain. These four countries, like the rest of the European continent, have openly opposed Trump’s war against Iran.

Similarly, the US’s commitment to Japan, which has the largest contingent of American troops stationed anywhere outside the US, cannot be taken for granted under Trump. Likewise for South Korea and Washington’s other Asian allies. As for Modi, his premeditated and ill-considered tilt towards the US, his physical and metaphorical embrace of Trump, has, if anything, exploded in his face.

Ashis Ray was formerly editor-at-large of CNN, and is the author of The Trial that Shook Britain. More of his writing can be found here