Key Points — Brazil’s Ministries of Finance and Planning sent the 2027 Budget Guidelines Bill (PLDO) to Congress on Wednesday with a primary surplus target of 0.50% of GDP, or R$73.2 billion, with a tolerance band of ±0.25pp (floor R$36.6 billion, ceiling R$109.8 billion). The trajectory continues at 1.0% in 2028, 1.25% in 2029, and […]

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Key Points — Brazilian crude oil shipments to China doubled in the first quarter of 2026 versus Q1 2025, reaching US$7.19 billion and capturing 57% of Brazil’s total crude exports—and 65% in March alone. March 2026 was the largest monthly Brazilian oil export volume to China since the trade series began in 1997, at roughly […]

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Key Points — Justice Kassio Nunes Marques was elected president of the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) on Tuesday evening in a symbolic vote, becoming the first Bolsonaro-appointed justice to lead the court that oversees Brazilian elections. — He will preside over the October 2026 congressional and gubernatorial elections—the most polarized since 2022—in which Lula faces […]

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