Washington has previously warned banks against dealing with companies allegedly involved in Iran’s oil trade
China’s Ministry of Commerce has instructed domestic companies not to comply with US sanctions targeting refiners allegedly linked to the Iranian oil trade.
Late last month, the US Treasury warned banks against dealing with so-called “teapot” refineries, privately owned companies which it said account for the majority of the oil China buys
Washington has previously warned banks against dealing with companies allegedly involved in Iran’s oil trade
China’s Ministry of Commerce has instructed domestic companies not to comply with US sanctions targeting refiners allegedly linked to the Iranian oil trade.
Late last month, the US Treasury warned banks against dealing with so-called “teapot” refineries, privately owned companies which it said account for the majority of the oil China buys from Iran. “This revenue ultimately benefits the Iranian regime, its weapons programs, and its military,” the Treasury said in its notice.
China’s government and major state-owned companies have denied direct purchases of Iranian crude, while customs data have not recorded imports from Iran since 2023.
Beijing has argued that sanctions imposed without a UN mandate are illegal under international law. In a statement on Saturday, China’s Ministry of Commerce said the restrictions interfere with normal trade between its firms and third parties and banned compliance with the sanctions, citing “national sovereignty, security and development interests.”
A government spokesperson said the move would not affect China’s international obligations or its protection of foreign-invested firms.
“The ministry will continue to closely monitor the improper extraterritorial application of foreign laws and measures, and will carry out further work in accordance with the law if such situations arise,” the spokesperson added.
Oil prices have surged since the US and Israeli attacked Iran in late February, prompting the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint handling about one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows.
While Iran has kept the vital waterway closed to “hostile ships,” the US Navy has maintained a blockade of Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf.
Despite a ceasefire declared nearly a month ago, prospects for a peace deal remain uncertain, as both sides have accused each other of pressing unacceptable terms. Oil prices surged past $120 per barrel this week for the first time since 2022.
The war has also pushed US President Donald Trump’s approval rating to record lows and deepened his rift with European allies, whose governments have refused to back operations against Iran.
Kiev reportedly sought to control how Athens could use unmanned surface vehicles produced under a partnership program
Negotiations between Ukraine and Greece over the joint production of naval drones have stalled because Kiev wants to retain control over how Athens can use the technology, local media have reported.
According to Greek Reporter, the countries agreed last November that Ukraine would supply components for drones to be built at shipya
Kiev reportedly sought to control how Athens could use unmanned surface vehicles produced under a partnership program
Negotiations between Ukraine and Greece over the joint production of naval drones have stalled because Kiev wants to retain control over how Athens can use the technology, local media have reported.
According to Greek Reporter, the countries agreed last November that Ukraine would supply components for drones to be built at shipyards in Greece, while Greek companies would manufacture electronic and optical systems. The end result would have been an improved version of the Magura-type attack drones which Kiev uses against Russia.
The newspaper Kathimerini reported on Thursday, however, that Ukrainian officials had demanded that Kiev retain a say over how the Greek military would use the drones, a condition Athens rejected. Greece believes Ukraine set these terms to “maintain a balance” with its longtime rival Türkiye, the newspaper said.
Greece and Türkiye have long accused each other of fueling tensions, with Athens reportedly opposing Ankara’s bid to join the EU’s Drone Wall program aimed at improving the bloc’s ability to detect and intercept hostile UAVs.
Türkiye hosted Russian-Ukrainian peace talks in 2022 and 2025, presenting itself as a neutral mediator in the conflict.
Ankara also condemned Ukrainian attacks on Russian-linked tankers near the Turkish coast last year.
President Donald Trump said Tehran’s proposal would likely be rejected
Tehran has submitted a comprehensive new peace plan, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said on Saturday, adding that “the ball is in the US court.”
Both the US and Iran have previously accused each other of putting forward unacceptable terms, as a ceasefire reached nearly a month ago has failed to produce an agreement.
Negotiations have been further complicat
President Donald Trump said Tehran’s proposal would likely be rejected
Tehran has submitted a comprehensive new peace plan, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said on Saturday, adding that “the ball is in the US court.”
Both the US and Iran have previously accused each other of putting forward unacceptable terms, as a ceasefire reached nearly a month ago has failed to produce an agreement.
Negotiations have been further complicated by the twin Iranian and US blockades of the Strait of Hormuz and the resumption of Israel’s bombing campaign in Lebanon.
“The Islamic Republic of Iran has submitted its plan to Pakistan as the mediator with the aim of permanently ending the imposed war, and now the ball is in the US court to choose between a diplomatic solution or a continuation of the confrontational approach,” Gharibabadi said, as quoted by Press TV.
According to Iranian media, the 14-point plan is a counterproposal to a nine-point document presented earlier by the US. News agencies have reported that Iran’s terms include security guarantees, the withdrawal of American troops from the region, the lifting of sanctions, and an end to the war “on all fronts,” including Lebanon.
Iran is also reportedly seeking compensation from the US and a new framework for the Strait of Hormuz.
In a post on Truth Social on Saturday, US President Donald Trump said he would review the plan soon but added that he could not “imagine that it would be acceptable.” The president previously told journalists that he was “not satisfied” with Iran’s terms and threatened to “blast the hell out of them and finish them forever.”
The US has demanded that Iran completely abandon its nuclear program and surrender its enriched uranium stockpiles, a condition Tehran has flatly rejected, insisting that its nuclear program is for civilian use only.
While the prospects for a peace deal remain uncertain, oil prices surged past $120 per barrel this week for the first time since 2022.
At least one man was killed in the attacks, according to officials
Nearly 270 Ukrainian kamikaze drones were shot down over more than two dozen Russian regions on Saturday, the Russian Defense Ministry has said. Some UAVs were intercepted as far as Chelyabinsk Region in the Urals, nearly 2,000 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
At least one person, a man in his seventies, was killed in Moscow Region, Governor Andrey Vorobyev has said.
Accordin
At least one man was killed in the attacks, according to officials
Nearly 270 Ukrainian kamikaze drones were shot down over more than two dozen Russian regions on Saturday, the Russian Defense Ministry has said. Some UAVs were intercepted as far as Chelyabinsk Region in the Urals, nearly 2,000 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
At least one person, a man in his seventies, was killed in Moscow Region, Governor Andrey Vorobyev has said.
According to the Defense Ministry, Ukraine has launched more than 600 drones over the past 48 hours. On Friday, a drone strike in Belgorod Region killed two teenagers riding a motorcycle, while three lost their lives the previous day in two separate attacks on cars.
Kiev has stepped up strikes deep inside Russia in recent months, targeting factories, oil depots, and port infrastructure, while Russian forces have carried out strikes on Ukraine’s military sites, industrial plants, and power grid.
Last month, the Russian Defense Ministry released what it said were the addresses of companies in European countries supplying Ukraine with drone technology and warned of a potential “sharp escalation of the military and political environment across the European continent.”
Russia says it can no longer deliver Kazakh oil directly to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline
Residents of the eastern German city of Schwedt have told the Ruptly video agency they fear being thrown back “to the 19th century” if oil supplies to the local refinery are disrupted. Their comments come after Russia announced it can no longer deliver oil from Kazakhstan directly to Germany via the Soviet-era Druzhba pipeline.
The PCK refinery in Schwed
Russia says it can no longer deliver Kazakh oil directly to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline
Residents of the eastern German city of Schwedt have told the Ruptly video agency they fear being thrown back “to the 19th century” if oil supplies to the local refinery are disrupted. Their comments come after Russia announced it can no longer deliver oil from Kazakhstan directly to Germany via the Soviet-era Druzhba pipeline.
The PCK refinery in Schwedt supplies around 90% of the fuel to Berlin, as well as to the state of Brandenburg. The plant previously relied on Russian oil via Druzhba but switched to Kazakh supplies in 2023 after Berlin banned Russian pipeline imports.
Last week, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak announced a halt to Kazakh oil transit via Druzhba starting May 1, citing a lack of “technical capacity.”
“If the lights go out at PCK, the city dies,” a Schwedt resident told Ruptly. “We do not want to go back to the 19th century.” Another resident warned that a fuel price hike if the flow stopped could even spark “unrest.”
Kazakh authorities have said they are aware of the situation and plan to reroute supplies via Russian Baltic and Black Sea ports.
Transporting oil by sea would mean the plant would have to operate at 65% to 70% capacity, the refinery’s council member, Danny Ruthenburg, told German broadcaster ARD, citing limited infrastructure at the port of Rostock. “That would mean we would have to shut down individual production lines, which would inevitably lead to staff reductions,” he said.
Kazakh Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov linked the changes to continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory. “That is most likely connected to the recent strikes on Russian infrastructure,” he said on the sidelines of an ecology forum in Astana.
The Ukrainian military has repeatedly targeted critical Russian infrastructure using drones, including oil refineries and transit hubs. Last month, it struck a hub operated by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) in the Russian port of Novorossiysk, which is used to transport Kazakh oil to Europe and Asia.
Moscow will sell to Indonesia and Japan, as both countries seek a hedge against the closure of the Strait of Hormuz
Russia will supply Indonesia and Japan with crude as both countries look for ways to weather the fuel crisis brought on by the US-Israeli war on Iran. The global economy is “reeling,” and there is “no swift exit” in sight to the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has said.
The blockage of the key s
Moscow will sell to Indonesia and Japan, as both countries seek a hedge against the closure of the Strait of Hormuz
Russia will supply Indonesia and Japan with crude as both countries look for ways to weather the fuel crisis brought on by the US-Israeli war on Iran. The global economy is “reeling,” and there is “no swift exit” in sight to the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has said.
The blockage of the key shipping corridor has led to wild fluctuations in the markets, with Brent crude briefly swinging to a four-year high of $126 per barrel on Friday, following media reports of US plans to prolong the blockade of Iran.
The EU, which imports around 75% of its jet fuel from the Middle East, has been hard hit by the Strait of Hormuz closure. The waterway handles around 20% of global seaborne liquefied natural gas (LNG), oil, and jet fuel flows. In mid-April, International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that Europe had just weeks of supplies left.
Brussels has also sharply increased its imports of LNG from Russia in the first quarter of 2026, despite its vow to phase out Russian energy by the end of 2027, according to the Financial Times.
Moscow has moved to expand its circle of alternative customers in recent weeks, as well as increasing supplies to regular buyers like India.
Indonesia will soon start receiving Russian crude and expects 150 million barrels by the end of this year, Indonesian Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia said on Saturday, as cited by state news agency Antara.
Japan has also turned to Moscow in search of alternative fuel sources. Japanese refinery Taiyo Oil has bought a shipment of Russian crude from the Sakhalin-2 project, TASS reported on Friday. The first cargo is set to arrive by next week, Reuters said on Saturday.
Last month, the Philippines received its first Russian oil shipment in five years after declaring an energy emergency. Moscow has also signed a new oil and gas cooperation deal with Vietnam, and is holding energy talks with Thailand as well.
The former defense minister and current Security Council secretary allegedly discussed sensitive issues with a corruption case suspect
Vladimir Zelensky should fire Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov over his alleged dealings with a businessman charged in a high-level corruption case, MP Fyodor Venislavsky has said.
The former defense minister, who has acted as Kiev’s top negotiator in peace talks with Moscow
The former defense minister and current Security Council secretary allegedly discussed sensitive issues with a corruption case suspect
Vladimir Zelensky should fire Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov over his alleged dealings with a businessman charged in a high-level corruption case, MP Fyodor Venislavsky has said.
The former defense minister, who has acted as Kiev’s top negotiator in peace talks with Moscow since late November, had previously attracted the attention of anti-corruption authorities over his alleged abuse of power.
Umerov’s name is in the headlines again in light of the latest media leaks linked to Timur Mindich, a businessman and longtime associate of Zelensky who stands accused of orchestrating a $100 million graft scheme. Ukrainskaya Pravda (UP) has recently published what it claimed were transcripts from surveillance recordings of his conversations with various officials, including Umerov, who was the defense minister at the time.
“Given the high-profile nature of the tapes… I believe it would be a wise political decision to fire Mr. Umerov,” Venislavsky told the US-sponsored Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) on Friday, commenting on the leaks, which have since become known as the ‘Mindich tapes’.
Earlier, the public anti-corruption council at the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, an advisory body tasked with overseeing the ministry’s activities, also urged Zelensky to fire Umerov in light of the latest leaks, arguing that the former minister’s actions should be seen as “power abuse” and a “divulgence of state secrets.” Zelensky has not responded to the calls so far.
According to the leaks, Mindich allegedly urged Umerov to approve a shipment of body armor supplied by his firm that the ministry had refused to certify. They also purportedly discussed issues related to the Ukrainian defense contractor Fire Point – a company Mindich was supposedly effectively running – as well as some appointments within the Ukrainian government.
In early 2025, a Western-backed NGO claimed that Umerov, still the minister at the time, was under investigation for alleged abuse of power. He left his ministerial position in July and was appointed by Zelensky to lead the National Security and Defense Council the very next day.
The unwilling conscript had been grabbed and shoved into an SUV in front of the children
Members of a Ukrainian press gang have been filmed apprehending a man at a kindergarten, unphased by the children witnessing the violent scene, as forced mobilization across the country continues to intensify amid its conflict with Russia.
A video of the incident, which apparently happened in the city of Lviv in the western part of the country, was published
The unwilling conscript had been grabbed and shoved into an SUV in front of the children
Members of a Ukrainian press gang have been filmed apprehending a man at a kindergarten, unphased by the children witnessing the violent scene, as forced mobilization across the country continues to intensify amid its conflict with Russia.
A video of the incident, which apparently happened in the city of Lviv in the western part of the country, was published on social media on Friday.
The footage captured draft enforcers in military-style uniforms dragging an unwilling conscript towards a black SUV, parked outside the premises of the kindergarten.
A female is heard shouting off screen: “Please stop, there are children here,” but the press gang ignores her request.
The man tried to resist the draft enforces, but ended up being overpowered, shoved into the vehicle and driven away.
In another forced mobilization incident, a man ended up receiving a severe head injury after scuffling with members of a press gang, who drove their mini-bus into the yard of his private home in Volyn Region on Friday.
The local conscription office has denied responsibility for wounding the resident, saying in a statement on Saturday that “the conscript tried running away and, through his own carelessness, hit his head.”
Ukraine barred nearly all adult men from leaving the country when the conflict between Moscow and Kiev escalated in February 2022 and lowered the draft age from 27 to 25.
Ukraine’s conscription drive has become increasingly violent amid Kiev’s military setbacks and lack of willing recruits.
Every day clips of the so-called “busification” emerge on social media, showing military-age men being snatched off the streets, from workplaces, and from residential areas, then taken to recruitment centers in mini-buses against their will, often triggering clashes with relatives, neighbors, and passersby.
Moscow has accused Kiev of seeking to fight “to the last Ukrainian” at the behest of Western powers waging a proxy war against Russia. Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov previously estimated that Ukraine had lost nearly 500,000 servicemen killed or seriously wounded in 2025 alone.
The son of top Norwegian diplomats, implicated in the files of the notorious pedophile, has been found dead
The son of two senior Norwegian diplomats under investigation over ties to late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein has taken his own life, Norwegian newspaper VG reported earlier this week, citing lawyers for the family.
Edward Juul Rod-Larsen, 25, was found dead in Oslo days after French and Norwegian police reportedly launched a joint investig
The son of top Norwegian diplomats, implicated in the files of the notorious pedophile, has been found dead
The son of two senior Norwegian diplomats under investigation over ties to late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein has taken his own life, Norwegian newspaper VG reported earlier this week, citing lawyers for the family.
Edward Juul Rod-Larsen, 25, was found dead in Oslo days after French and Norwegian police reportedly launched a joint investigation into his parents, Mona Juul and Terje Rod-Larsen. The probe is centered around allegations that the disgraced US financier had helped the couple purchase an apartment, and left $5 million to each of their two children in his will.
The probe is part of widening international fallout from the latest release of millions of Epstein documents, which have triggered criminal investigations, arrests, and resignations across politics, business, and even royalty.
Epstein, who pleaded guilty in 2008 to soliciting sex from a minor and served 13 months of an 18-month sentence, was arrested again in 2019 on federal sex trafficking charges. He died by suicide in his jail cell ahead of his trial.
The US Department of Justice has gradually released materials related to the case under the Epstein Files Transparency Act, signed into law by US President Donald Trump.
The released documents mention numerous high-profile figures, linking some to Epstein’s network or questionable financial dealings. The disclosures have triggered resignations, probes, and reviews worldwide, with many acknowledging contact but denying wrongdoing, with some charges brought in a limited number of cases.
Last month, Former Norwegian Prime Minister Thorbjorn Jagland was hospitalized after a reported suicide attempt, days after being charged with gross corruption over accepting Epstein’s hospitality. World Economic Forum CEO Borge Brende stepped down over dinners and communications with the disgraced financier.
In the US, the release has placed renewed scrutiny on former President Bill Clinton and his wife, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Both have been deposed about their associations with Epstein, but have denied knowledge of his trafficking operation.
Commenting on the disclosures, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova described the scandal as exposing the “pure Satanism” at the heart of the collective West, accusing Western elites of inventing threats from Russia to distract from their own “monstrous crimes.”
On May 2, 2014, 48 people were killed after Ukrainian nationalists set fire to the local trade unions building
Kiev has no plans to punish the perpetrators of the Odessa massacre, with Moscow’s victory in the Ukraine conflict being the only way to assure justice for its dozens of victims, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has said on the 12th anniversary of the tragedy.
On May 2, 2014, clashes erupted in the Black Sea port city
On May 2, 2014, 48 people were killed after Ukrainian nationalists set fire to the local trade unions building
Kiev has no plans to punish the perpetrators of the Odessa massacre, with Moscow’s victory in the Ukraine conflict being the only way to assure justice for its dozens of victims, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has said on the 12th anniversary of the tragedy.
On May 2, 2014, clashes erupted in the Black Sea port city of Odessa between Ukrainian nationalists and the opponents of the violent Western-backed coup that had taken place in Kiev earlier that year.
The unrest culminated in ultra-right militants setting fire to the local trade unions building, which anti-government activists had been chased into following a demonstration outside, leading to 48 people being killed and more than 200 others wounded.
In a statement published on the Foreign Ministry’s Telegram channel on Saturday, Zakharova said that photos and videos from the scene prove that what happened in Odessa was “a Nazi intimidation action.”
Attempts by some in the West to present it as a spontaneous altercation between two groups of peaceful demonstrators with polarizing views on Ukraine’s future are hypocritical, she stressed.
According to the spokeswoman, the organizers of the Odessa massacre are well known to the Ukrainian law enforcement agencies and are not in hiding, but they still somehow remain free.
Kiev repeatedly promised to complete the investigation into the tragedy, but it apparently “has no time for justice,” she argued. The very word has “turned into an oxymoron considering... the lawlessness and rampant corruption in modern Ukraine,” she added.
However, despite this fact, the foreign backers continue to provide military and financial support to the government of Vladimir Zelensky, Zakharova said.
”It's clear that in modern Europe, encouraging Nazism and financing terrorism has become a tradition,” she insisted.
The only conclusion that can be drawn from this is that “the successful implementation of the goals and objectives” that Russia set for itself in the Ukraine conflict “will guarantee justice for the victims of the monstrous crime,” the spokeswoman stressed.
Since the escalation with Kiev in February 2022, Moscow has been saying that it is looking to achieve the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine as well as ensure that the country is neutral. The Russian side also insists that the Ukrainian authorities must recognize the territorial realities on the ground in order for the conflict to be settled.
Crude prices have hit their highest levels since 2022 following reports that the US president would be briefed on new Iran options
Global crude oil prices rise and fall depending on whether US President Donald Trump got enough sleep, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has said in a sarcastic remark. His comment came after oil rose to a four-year high amid reports that the US military would brief Trump on options related to the Iran conflict.
On Fr
Crude prices have hit their highest levels since 2022 following reports that the US president would be briefed on new Iran options
Global crude oil prices rise and fall depending on whether US President Donald Trump got enough sleep, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has said in a sarcastic remark. His comment came after oil rose to a four-year high amid reports that the US military would brief Trump on options related to the Iran conflict.
On Friday, Brent jumped nearly 7% to over $126 per barrel before easing to $108 later in the session. The rally followed an Axios report that US Central Command had prepared options for “short and powerful” strikes on Iran aimed at breaking stalled negotiations.
“Everything is under pressure, including oil prices, depending on how President Trump wakes up,” Fico said on Friday speaking with journalists in Bratislava. “If he wakes up in a good mood, oil goes down, if he wakes up in a bad mood and makes some statement, oil automatically goes up.”
Prices saw extreme volatility and a sharp surge after the US and Israel launched a bombing campaign on Iran on February 28. Iran responded by barring “enemy ships” from the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about one-fifth of global energy trade. In addition, Tehran conducted retaliatory strikes on US military bases in several countries across the Middle East.
Gas prices have also surged amid concerns over disruptions to global energy supply chains, with volatility spreading across European and Asian markets. Broader financial markets saw sharp swings due to escalation risks. Analysts have noted that global markets remain highly sensitive to political signals and policy decisions by the Trump administration.
Fico also recalled US interventions in Iraq and Venezuela and expressed concern about possible aggression toward Cuba, as well as Trump’s unresolved claims on Greenland, where Washington could “continue to assert its interests.”
Russia, China, America and the myth of a new grand bargain
There will be much talk this May about the so-called “strategic triangle” of Russia, China and the United States.
US President Donald Trump is expected in Beijing first, followed by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Whenever the leaders of the three most influential powers meet, speculation inevitably follows. What if they strike some grand ba
Russia, China, America and the myth of a new grand bargain
There will be much talk this May about the so-called “strategic triangle” of Russia, China and the United States.
US President Donald Trump is expected in Beijing first, followed by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Whenever the leaders of the three most influential powers meet, speculation inevitably follows. What if they strike some grand bargain? What if the world suddenly becomes more orderly?
Such expectations are misplaced. The restructuring of the global system is already under way, and it isn’t a process that can be halted or reversed by summit diplomacy. Even so, turning points in history can unfold in different ways; carefully managed, or recklessly accelerated. That’s what makes the coming meetings significant.
Both Russia and the United States are now deeply involved in large-scale military confrontations. The importance of these conflicts lies not only in their scope, but in their broader consequences for the international system. China, by contrast, has historically kept its distance from such entanglements. Yet it is becoming increasingly clear in Beijing that it can’t remain insulated from their effects. Discussions at the recent Valdai Club conference in Shanghai suggested that China is reassessing its position.
At the center of this reassessment is a simple question: what, if anything, is still possible in relations with Washington?
For decades, China’s rise was closely tied to its economic relationship with the United States. The arrangement sometimes described as “Chimerica,” American capital and technology combined with Chinese labor and manufacturing, formed the backbone of globalization. It wasn’t an equal partnership, but it was mutually beneficial. For a long time, it seemed that basic economic self-interest would prevent either side from undermining it.
That assumption has now collapsed.
By the late 2000s, dissatisfaction in Washington was already evident. The United States increasingly viewed the arrangement not as a source of shared gains, but as a structural imbalance. Over time, the accumulation of tensions, economic and strategic, reached a point where incremental adjustments were no longer sufficient. What followed was a qualitative shift in the system itself.
For several decades, the global order operated largely in the interests of the United States as the leader of the Western bloc. Its gradual erosion now threatens those advantages. Washington’s response has been to use the current period of transition to secure as much of a head start as possible for the future.
Donald Trump has become the most visible embodiment of this approach. His rhetoric, openly transactional and even boastful, may appear unconventional, but the underlying logic predates him. The objective is clear: maximize immediate gains and build up national capacity as quickly as possible. Then use that accumulated strength to dominate the next phase of global competition.
This represents a sharp departure from the earlier American strategy, which prioritized long-term investments in the international system. Those investments didn’t always produce immediate returns, but they reinforced a framework that ultimately benefited the United States more than anyone else. Today, the emphasis has shifted toward short-term advantage, even at the risk of longer-term instability.
Whether this strategy will succeed remains uncertain. The initial phase has already produced setbacks. But the broader direction is unlikely to change. Future administrations may adopt a different tone, but they will operate within the same constraints. The liberal international order won’t return, not because of Trump’s personality, but because the conditions that sustained it no longer exist.
For other major powers, including China, this has profound implications. The idea of a comprehensive “big deal” with the United States, one that stabilizes the global system for years to come, has effectively become unrealistic.
Trump’s frequent use of the word “deal” is revealing. In his vocabulary, it’s more than a mere strategic concept but a commercial one. A deal is “big” not because it is durable or all-encompassing, but because of the scale of immediate gain it delivers. And like any commercial transaction, it can be abandoned if a more desirable opportunity presents itself.
Under such conditions, long-term agreements on the structure of world order are impossible. Washington is unlikely to commit to any arrangement that limits its flexibility before it has secured what it considers a sufficient advantage.
This is not necessarily a product of malice or arrogance. It is, in its own way, a rational response to a period of extreme uncertainty. The United States is seeking to preserve the foundations of its future dominance by acting decisively in the present.
But rationality on one side forces adaptation on the other.
If key players conclude that stable agreements with Washington are unattainable, their behavior changes. Military capability becomes more important as a safeguard against pressure. At the same time, interest grows in alternative forms of cooperation. That is, frameworks that operate independently of the United States and are insulated from its influence.
This logic isn’t new, but it’s gaining urgency. Russia has been advocating for such arrangements for several years. China, by contrast, has approached the idea with caution, hoping instead to preserve some form of mutually beneficial relationship with the United States. That hope now appears to be fading.
The upcoming visits to Beijing will provide a useful indication of how far this shift has progressed.
The meeting between Trump and Xi will likely define the limits of a temporary accommodation between two powers that remain economically intertwined, yet increasingly distrustful of one another. The question is no longer whether a comprehensive agreement is possible, but what narrow, short-term arrangements can be reached, and how long they will last.
Putin’s subsequent talks with Xi will address a different issue: the extent to which Russia and China are prepared to develop mechanisms of cooperation that bypass the United States altogether. Moscow has been moving in this direction for some time. Beijing now appears to be considering whether it must follow.
May will not produce a grand bargain. But it may show, more clearly than before, how the world is adjusting to the absence of one.
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