In both the Redbridge and Freshwater polls, Anthony Albanese’s net favourability has jumped eight points since late March to -9. In Redbridge, the Coalition rebounded from a low of 17% in March to 22%.

The Liberals have easily held the Victorian state seat of Nepean at a byelection on Saturday. In Tasmanian upper house elections also on Saturday, a left-wing independent is likely to gain the seat of Huon from a conservative independent.

Redbridge poll

A national Redbridge and Accent Research poll, conducted April 24–30 from a sample of 1,014, gave Labor 31% of the primary vote (down one since the previous Redbridge poll in late March), One Nation 27% (down two), the Coalition 22% (up five), the Greens 13% (steady) and all Others 7% (down two).

By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 54–46, a one-point gain for Labor. Labor led One Nation by 55–45, a two-point gain for Labor. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition by 53–47, a two-point gain for the Coalition. The March poll’s respondent preferences were likely too weak for Labor.

Albanese’s net favourability jumped eight points to -9. Angus Taylor was up one point to -2, Pauline Hanson up two points to -1, Nationals leader Matt Canavan up one point to -2, Greens leader Larissa Waters down one point to -4 and Energy Minister Chris Bowen down two points since December to -16.

US President Donald Trump had by far the worst net favourability with Australians, down three points since March to -58.

In a three-way preferred PM question, there was no change, with Albanese at 33%, Hanson 23% and Taylor 14%.

Combining the issue scores of Labor and the Greens against the Coalition and One Nation, the right led by 37–30 on cost of living, 33–28 on housing, 53–22 on immigration, 41–26 on national security and by 42–30 on economic management. The left’s one lead was on healthcare, by 35–31.

Freshwater poll

A national Freshwater poll for News Corp, conducted April 28–30 from a sample of 1,046, gave Labor 32% of the primary vote, One Nation 25%, the Coalition 23%, the Greens 12% and all Others 8%, with no changes since the late March Freshwater poll. By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 53–47, a two-point gain for Labor.

Albanese’s net favourability jumped eight points to -9, Taylor’s was down four points to +10, Hanson’s was down five points to +5 and Canavan debuted at +4. Albanese led Taylor as preferred PM by 44–38 (42–36 previously).

Cost of living was rated the most important issue by 44%, with housing the only other issue in double digits at 12%. By 47–32, respondents were dissatisfied with the government over the rise in fuel prices, a big improvement from 59–18 dissatisfied previously.

By 37–33, respondents were dissatisfied with the government’s response to the Iran war (33–31 previously). By 37–34, they were dissatisfied with the response to the Bondi terrorist attacks. By 41–27, they were dissatisfied with the response to the rise in antisemitism. By 38–31, they thought the government was enforcing the social media ban on children under 16 poorly.

By 63–31, respondents were aware of the government’s plans to cut the NDIS. By 47–25, they supported the NDIS cuts.

Liberals retain Nepean at Victorian byelection

A Victorian state byelection occurred in Liberal-held Nepean on Saturday after the resignation of MP Sam Groth. Primary votes were 38.5% for Liberal Anthony Marsh (down 8.5% since the 2022 election), 24.7% One Nation (new), 21.7% for teal independent Tracee Hutchison (new), 9.3% Greens (up 0.5%) and 2.9% Legalise Cannabis (new). Labor did not contest after receiving 32.6% at the 2022 election.

The electoral commission selected Marsh and Hutchison as its final two candidates. Marsh defeated Hutchison by 63.5–36.5 (56.7–43.3 to the Liberals against Labor in 2922).

Although One Nation has a 3.0% primary lead over Hutchison, The Poll Bludger’s projections have Hutchison beating One Nation into second by 30.6–28.3 on Greens’ preferences. Even if One Nation remains second, the Liberals will still win easily.

This was a good result for the Liberals in easily beating both One Nation and a teal independent. The last Victorian Resolve poll suggested the Coalition is the favourite to win the late November state election, but One Nation could win enough seats to hold the balance of power.

Tasmanian upper house elections

The 15 members of Tasmania’s upper house have rotating six-year terms. Every May, two or three of the 15 seats are up for election. On Saturday, elections occurred in Huon (held by conservative independent Dean Harriss) and Rosevears (held by Liberal Jo Palmer). Analyst Kevin Bonham has profiles of the candidates.

Only primary votes were counted on Saturday, with the winners to be determined by a full distribution of preferences when nearly all votes are counted. Most postal votes won’t be included until Thursday.

In Huon, Harriss won 30.4% of the primary vote, left-wing independent Clare Glade-Wright 27.8%, Labor 16.5%, the Greens 15.3% and two other independents a combined 10.0%. I expect Labor and Greens preferences to help Glade-Wright, and she is likely to gain Huon from Harriss.

In Rosevears, Palmer won 42.6% of the primary vote, Labor 24.7%, the Greens 16.8% and independent Susan Monson 16.0%. Postals are likely to further assist Palmer. Greens’ preferences will flow strongly to Labor, but Palmer is far ahead on primary votes, and Labor would also need a strong flow on Monson’s preferences. The Liberals are very likely to hold Rosevears.

The current upper house has three Liberals, three Labor, one Green and eight independents. If the results in Huon and Rosevears are as expected, there would be no change in party standings, but a left-wing independent would replace a conservative independent. Bonham says Labor has voted with the Liberals in the upper house more often than any other member.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

US President Donald Trump’s net approval is near a record low after a further dip, despite a surging US stock market. In Australia, there are federal Essential and Morgan polls and a Queensland Resolve poll.

In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval has dropped 1.3 points since my April 9 article to -18.2, with 57.5% disapproving and 39.2% approving.

Trump’s net approval is only slightly above his -18.8 net approval on April 22. It’s below what any past president since Harry Truman had at this point in their term, with Trump during his first term the closest at -12.1.

On four issues tracked by Silver, Trump’s net approval is -9.2 on immigration, -26.3 on the economy, -19.7 on trade and -41.5 on inflation. Since mid-March, Trump’s net approval on the economy and inflation have both slumped, while his ratings on trade and immigration have been relatively stable.

Despite the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the benchmark US S&P 500 stock market index has surged 12.5% in the past month, hitting a new record high in Monday’s session, 3.3% above the level it was at in the week before the Iran war began.

While consumers have been hurt by high fuel prices, the stock market has surged owing to the AI boom.

Silver also has an aggregate of US support for the Iran war. Net support has dropped 0.8 points since April 9 to -15.9, with 54.8% opposed to the Iran war while 39.0% support it.

At November midterm elections, all of the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate will be up for election. In Silver’s aggregate of the generic ballot polls, Democrats currently lead Republicans by 48.2–42.6, a 5.6-point margin. There has been very little change since January.

In my April 9 article, I said this Democratic margin would be enough for them to gain control of the House, but not the Senate. On a uniform swing, Democrats need a double-digit margin in the generic ballot to win the Senate.

Welsh and Scottish elections on May 7

I wrote on Monday for The Poll Bludger about the May 7 Welsh and Scottish parliamentary elections. In Wales, Labour’s dominance is set to end, with the nationalist Plaid Cymru and populist right Reform likely to be the top two parties. In Scotland, the Scottish National Party is likely to retain government with the Greens’ support.

Over 5,000 English councillors are also up for election on May 7. Reform and the Greens are set to make massive gains from Labour and the Conservatives.

In the US, Virginia passed an April 21 referendum by 51.7–48.3 that will allow a 10–1 Democratic gerrymander of Virginia’s 11 federal House seats, a four-seat gain for Democrats.

Australian Essential poll

An Australian federal Essential poll, conducted April 22–26 from a sample of 1,002, gave Labor 30% of the primary vote (down one since the late March Essential poll), One Nation 25% (up one), the Coalition 24% (steady), the Greens 11% (up one), all Others 5% (steady) and undecided 5% (down two).

By respondent preferences, the Coalition led Labor by 49–47 (47–46 previously). Applying 2025 election preference flows to the primary votes in this poll would give Labor above a 51–49 lead. A low Others vote and weak respondent preference flows to Labor are features of Essential’s polls.

Essential’s last three polls have been the only ones since the 2025 election to have the Coalition leading Labor after preferences. All other pollsters have had Labor ahead.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval improved two points to -10, with 51% disapproving and 41% approving. Angus Taylor’s net approval was down two points to net zero (34% both approving and disapproving). Pauline Hanson debuted at +18 net approval (52% approve, 34% disapprove).

On who was blamed most for the fuel crisis, 42% blamed the US and Israel for initiating the Iran war, 32% the Australian government for not planning ahead and 17% Iran for closing the Strait of Hormuz.

On the economic outlook in the next six months, 55% (up 20 since August 2025) said it will get worse, 31% (down 12) stay the same and 14% (down eight) improve.

Morgan poll and additional Resolve questions

A national Morgan poll, conducted April 20–26 from a sample of 1,587, gave Labor 30% of the primary vote (down 0.5 since the April 13–19 Morgan poll), the Coalition 22.5% (down 0.5), One Nation 22.5% (up one), the Greens 14% (up 0.5) and all Others 11% (down 0.5).

By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 54.5–45.5, a one-point gain for the Coalition. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led by 54–46, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition.

I previously covered the mid-April federal Resolve poll for Nine newspapers. In additional questions, just 15% believed Australia would avoid a recession in the next year, 12% thought we are already in a recession and 52% thought we would have a recession within the next year.

Respondents overstated the amount of money spent on various priorities in the federal budget. They particularly overstated the amount spent on foreign aid ($59 billion average estimate vs $4.5 billion actual).

Queensland Resolve poll

A Queensland state Resolve poll for The Brisbane Times, conducted with the federal March and April Resolve polls from a sample of 870, gave the Liberal National Party (LNP) 30% (down four since February), Labor 28% (up two), One Nation 17% (up one), the Greens 11% (up one), independents 10% (up one) and others 6% (up one).

Resolve doesn’t usually give a two-party estimate for its state polls. Applying preference flows from the 2025 federal election would give about a 50–50 tie between the LNP and Labor.

LNP Premier David Crisafulli’s net likeability was down two points to +19. Labor leader Steven Miles’ net likeability was down two points to -5. Crisafulli led as preferred premier by 42–26 (44–23 previosuly).

A Queensland byelection for the Labor-held Stafford will occur on May 16. Former MP Jimmy Sullivan won Stafford for Labor at the October 2024 election by a 55.3–44.7 margin over the LNP. Sullivan was expelled from Labor over domestic violence issues in May 2025 and was found dead on April 9.

Labor, the LNP and the Greens (who won 18.1% in 2024) are contesting the byelection, but One Nation is not contesting.

The Poll Bludger covered a Queensland state draft redistribution on March 10. Katter’s Australian Party lost one of its three seats to the LNP at a byelection in November 2025, and would lose another in the redistribution. Labor was adversely affected.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.