Four federal polls have been released since Sunday. One Nation has taken the primary vote lead from Labor in both the Redbridge and YouGov polls and is tied with Labor in the Morgan poll. Labor held a primary vote lead in Fox & Hedgehog.

If the polls are ranked by the overall vote for One Nation and the Coalition, the F&H poll is Labor’s worst, with the right vote at 52%. The right had 51% in Redbridge, 49% in YouGov and 47% in Morgan.

Labor still led One Nation by respondent preferences in all four polls, though only by 51–49 in Redbridge. In F&H, Labor trailed the Coalition on respondent preferences, but led in the other polls.

Morgan and YouGov had polls taken immediately after the budget. One Nation has gained in both these polls from their post-budget editions.

The next federal election is not due until early 2028. If the changes introduced in the budget pass parliament, they will mostly be implemented from July 2027. Analyst Peter Brent suggests Labor may regain ground if the sky doesn’t fall in after July 2027.

Redbridge poll

A national Redbridge and Accent Research poll for The Financial Review, conducted May 25–28 from a sample of 1,005, gave One Nation 31% of the primary vote (up four since the last Redbridge poll in late April), Labor 28% (down three), the Coalition 20% (down two), the Greens 12% (down one) and all Others 9% (up two).

By respondent preferences, Labor led both One Nation and the Coalition by just 51–49, a four-point gain for One Nation and a three-point gain for the Coalition. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition by 52–48, a one-point gain for the Coalition.

Anthony Albanese’s net favourability slumped ten points to -19. Treasurer Jim Chalmers also crashed 13 points to -18. Greens leader Larissa Waters was down two points to -6, Liberal Andrew Hastie down six points to -6, Angus Taylor down two points to -4, Nationals leader Matt Canavan down two points to -4 and Pauline Hanson up one point to net zero.

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Read more: View from The Hill: Could One Nation be the unofficial opposition at the 2028 poll?

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In a three-way preferred PM question, Albanese had 31% (down two), Hanson 25% (up two) and Taylor 14% (steady).

By 55–23, respondents thought the federal budget would be bad for the nation rather than good. By 48–11, they thought it would be bad for them personally.

On issues, the combined score for the Coalition and One Nation led the combined score for Labor and the Greens by 39–28 on cost of living, 35–29 on housing, 55–20 on immigration, 42–25 on economic management, 42–23 on crime and 42–24 on national security.

The left had a 36–32 lead on healthcare and a 40–24 lead on climate change. The right has gained on issues that were assessed in late April.

YouGov poll

A national YouGov poll for Sky News, conducted May 26 to June 2 from a sample of 1,471, gave One Nation 29% of the primary vote (up four since the mid-May YouGov poll), Labor 26% (down two), the Coalition 20% (down three), the Greens 13% (steady), independents 6% (up one) and others 6% (steady).

By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 52.5–47.5, a 0.5-point gain for One Nation. Labor led the Coalition by 51.5–48.5, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition.

Albanese’s net approval slumped seven points to -26 with 60% dissatisfied and 34% satisfied. His net approval has dived 12 points in the last two YouGov polls. Albanese led Taylor as preferred PM by 41–39 (41–38 previously). He led Hanson by 47–41 (50–38 previously).

By 46–31, respondents supported One Nation and the Coalition working together to form government. Among One Nation voters, this was 53–25 support and among Coalition voters 45–28 support.

The previous YouGov poll was taken after the May 12 budget, so this poll suggests further damage for Labor and Albanese and gains for One Nation since the immediate budget aftermath.

Fox & Hedgehog poll: combined right vote jumps

A national Fox & Hedgehog poll for News Corp, conducted May 25–26 from a sample of 1,700, gave Labor 29% of the primary vote (down one since the late March F&H poll), One Nation 27% (up four), the Coalition 25% (up two), the Greens 10% (down three) and all Others 9% (down two).

By respondent preferences, the Coalition led Labor by 51–49, a two-point gain for the Coalition. This is the first Coalition lead in a poll other than Essential. Labor led One Nation by 54–46, a two-point gain for One Nation.

Albanese’s net approval was down three points to -22, with 51% disapproving and 29% approving. Taylor’s net approval was steady at net zero (29% both approving and disapproving). Hanson was down one point to +8 (44% approve, 36% disapprove) and Chalmers was down five points to -17 (37% disapprove, 20% approve). Taylor led Albanese as preferred PM by 38–36 (39–35 to Albanese previously).

If a teal-style party ran, this poll suggests it would get 6%, with that support coming most at the expense of Labor (down three points to 26% vs the standard question). There would be no effect on the combined vote for One Nation and the Coalition.

Just 28% thought Labor had done enough to deserve re-election while 57% thought it was time to give someone else a go. But by 44–30 and 45–40, respondents thought the Liberals and One Nation respectively were not ready for government.

By 47–19, respondents had an unfavourable view of the federal budget. By 59–20, they did not trust the Labor government’s promise not to introduce taxes on the family home or death taxes in future budgets.

Morgan poll: Labor and One Nation tied on primary votes

A national Morgan poll, conducted May 25–31 from a sample of 1,542, gave Labor 27% of the primary vote (down 0.5 since the May 18–24 Morgan poll), One Nation 27% (up 1.5), the Coalition 20% (down three), the Greens 13.5% (steady) and all Others 12.5% (up two).

By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by an unchanged 53.5–46.5. Labor led the Coalition by 55.5–44.5, a 2.5-point gain for Labor. By 2025 election flows, Labor led the Coalition by 53.5–46.5, a 1.5-point gain for Labor.

Since the budget, One Nation’s support has increased every week in Morgan’s polls. Morgan had not been friendly for One Nation prior to the budget.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Every day, we publish a selection of your emails in our newsletter. We’d love to hear from you, you can email us at yoursay@theconversation.edu.au.

Monday May 25

The reality for teachers

“This year will be my 20th year teaching and will probably be my last due to the increasing abuse me and my fellow teachers are having to put up with because of the funding cut to disability support. This year I have been attacked five times by a middle primary student in my class who needs 1:1 support, but can’t have it because they have been called ‘too complex’. The funding they had was cut down this year. Violence is escalating, students are in fear, staff are burnt out and no one can do anything to help because we don’t have funding. This isn’t an anomaly. I have had at least one student per year in this situation, and currently there are at least five students over the primary school in the same boat. Teachers did not sign up for this! We shouldn’t be expected to be the parents, support workers, counsellors, behaviour specialists, and more! The system needs to stop relying on the good will of teachers and school support officers because we care about the kids. Cutting funding and making it even harder to get support in schools is going to add another straw to an already broken back.”

Name withheld

Smaller homes, better design

“Some of us baby boomers aspire to downsize our homes but this is not always possible. Young people who want to move to a larger house will have the burden of stamp duty while those of us who wish to downsize are offered newly built homes with floor plans that don’t consider aspects for older people and are often two stories (which isn’t great when one eventually needs a walker!) Older people want to downsize, not downgrade. Building well-designed smaller homes would possibly be snapped up by young families as well as baby boomers.”

Noelene Bearns, Narrawallee

Tuesday May 26

On the taxpayer’s dime

“Thanks for a very informative article on how massive cost blowouts have become an almost inevitable part of huge projects funded by taxpayers. I am one taxpayer who rightfully deplores the mismanagement of these projects, and I welcome Professor Ahiaga-Dagbui’s suggested three changes that Australia could make to reduce cost blowouts and perhaps even lead to a halcyon time when projects come in under budget. He also suggests that Australia could start with a three-fold approach: ensure that decisions are made in the right order; that there is an independent authoritative body with oversight removed from political persuasion or interference and that transparency becomes the norm rather than a novel idea to be avoided at all costs. As a taxpayer I would want the ‘could’ changed into ‘should’, or preferably ‘must’.”

Maggie Woodhead, Ballajura WA

Timmy the Whale

“Thank you Vanessa Pirotta for your clear-eyed investigation of the death of Timmy the Whale. As someone whose education in environmental matters has taken years to mature, and still needs some even at the age of 86, I value the clear, disinterested explanation of what is really relevant when looking at an issue like this.”

Judy Hardy-Holden

A baby boomer’s POV

“Later this year I turn 80! For me, a white, Australian, heterosexual male of moderate intelligence and a share of generational good luck, it’s been an era of privilege. And now I am experiencing perhaps the greatest privilege of all: I have the time, the interest and the wherewithal to look back over my life and wring from it all the joys of hindsight. I have my scars of course, but I can only give thanks, even for my wounds. And if now some of my privilege is taken away to benefit others, particularly my children and grandchildren, I will not complain. I feel I’ve had my go, and done my share.”

Bruce Cumming

Wednesday May 27

Life imitates art

“The saga of the Inland Rail is worthy of a Utopia episode or two. The original concept was for a freight line running through the Murray Darling Basin, Australia’s food production heartland, to Darwin, for a short export hop to South East Asia, and reverse. Enter the fiddlers: oh, it has to stop at Gladstone – well, there’s some sense in that, with Gladstone’s industry taken into account. Then, why miss Townsville? No, Darwin is too hard, too far away; let’s take it to Brisbane (apparently ignoring the engineering challenge of getting long trains down the coastal fall). Finally, we are left with a truncated line to nowhere (sorry, Parkes, but you know what I mean). Yes, truly Utopia is a doco.”

Margaret Hurle

Overlooked learning needs

“Perhaps some consideration needs to be given to the way many children with support needs were overlooked rather than helped in previous times. Students who were categorised as badly behaved or stupid were relegated to the back of the classroom, and expelled or encouraged to leave school as soon as possible. If we now know that 27% need extra help in school, they probably always did.”

Lyndal Breen

The fight against MND

“My father was diagnosed with MND in 1981, aged 62. None of us had ever heard of motor neurone disease. My brother, a doctor, thought Dad had had a stroke as he was slurring his words and had to dig out his medical textbooks to find out what it was. Dad was given two to five years to live, but died 15 months later. It saddens me that nearly 50 years later there’s still no cure for it. It’s sad watching sports people contracting it.”

Jan Pittman, Gidgegannup WA

Thursday May 28

Digital literacy in education

“I appreciated your article exploring the poor digital literacy skills that our children have. As a secondary school teacher, I have witnessed this time and time again. From my experience, it seems that the issue is not specific to digital technologies, but a broader inability of students to develop and apply critical thinking skills. Those who I have spoken to about this all agree with the importance of addressing it in the classroom, but unfortunately our workload prevents us from being able to identify and apply effective solutions. If someone has an answer, we are all ears.”

Naomi Watson

Digital skills deficiency spans ages

“While findings around school students’ declining digital technology skills are troubling, let’s also take note that many super seniors in this country experience the same deficit. This has immense consequences. Organisations and businesses increasingly demand customers use online technology to transact. They assume all echelons of society are geared up and comfortable using this technology. Long-time retirees, with no IT departments or recent training, struggle. These corporate entities keep pushing more tasks on to their customers who receive no discounts for doing the work and no alternatives for engaging with the supply of goods and services.”

Richard Goodwin, Doubleview, WA

Inefficient governments

“The excellent article on Australia’s major public project cost overruns points the way towards substantial improvement, as has been achieved in other countries. These overruns are part of the reason why our ‘lucky country’ seems to be a bit less lucky these days, thanks to inefficient governance at all levels of government, which has private sector contractors and unions laughing all the way to the bank. This begs the question about why the market for better policy and practice is so inefficient: would it be too cynical to assume that politicians have done nothing to correct these terrible blowouts because they don’t see this as an issue that drives voters? We voters should make it an electoral issue! It’s our taxes (hardly) at work that they are squandering, directly impacting funding availability for hospitals, education and roads.”

Professor Danny Samson, Department of Management and Marketing, University of Melbourne

Every day, we publish a selection of your emails in our newsletter. We’d love to hear from you, you can email us at yoursay@theconversation.edu.au.

Monday June 8

The US accuses Australia of modern slavery

“Your article on modern slavery made for interesting reading. The outrageous hypocrisy of the USA is breathtaking! Employers in the US have always taken advantage of their non-existent labour protection laws – what other advanced economy depends on hospitality workers working for $2, $3 or $4 an hour and tips (without which they couldn’t survive)? What other country (Western/advanced) is happy that maybe half of its citizens can’t afford health cover – and no, they don’t have Medicare!”

Stuart Kennedy, Oatlands NSW

The troubles of on-street parking

“We visited Japan about 5 years ago and our guide in Kyoto told us that a car could not be registered unless the owner could show that they had off-street parking. This certainly led to some strange alterations to small houses to accommodate this requirement.”

Annette Waterworth

Tuesday June 9

Off-street parking wishes

“Your article blithely observes that kerbside parking is unnecessary for statistical reasons. [But] kerbside parking is essential in areas settled prior to motor vehicles when dwellings were largely built without driveways or garages. Our largest population centres are Sydney and Melbourne. Inner city areas are short on any off-street parking. In fact, North Sydney Council has resident parking permits because of this. There must be some fairy godmother somewhere who can magic up some off-street parking. We would really welcome her.”

Julia Bovard, North Sydney

The trouble for bookshops

“Bookshops in Australia are a tricky subject. As much as I would like to support local bookshops, they simply don’t, and probably can’t, carry a wide enough range of books to meet the interests of many readers. They focus on best-sellers (that is, trash), new releases and Penguin ‘classics’; anything else is pretty much ignored. The reality in Australia is that the market for quality books is tiny and to survive bookshops can’t serve those people. Australia can’t be compared to France or Italy in terms of reader interest in quality books. Sadly, a bookshop in Australia that sold only books on sport would probably be highly successful.”

Gavin Oakes, Melbourne

One Nation’s housing policy

“One Nation are proposing that people who are not citizens or permanent residents would be forced to sell their properties. Would this apply to Rupert Murdoch who took up American citizenship several years ago?”

John Upham

Wednesday June 10

Why do we value uni more than trade skills?

“Vocational education, or in my school days, technical and commercial education, has a long history of living in the shadow of university education. It is a legacy of an approach to schooling transported here during the early years of European settlement. Being skilled at doing and making was devalued compared to abstract thinking. In the modern era, and indeed basically forever, doing, making and thinking are inextricably linked. The relentless push to increase higher education participation rates and to use them as the dominant indicators of national educational achievements and status has largely contributed to a vocational pathway being second prize. It simply makes no sense to ascribe greater value to one type of education and training over another.”

Dr John Halsey, Emeritus Professor, Flinders University

Should students be separated on ability?

“Imagine that instead of selecting the best players for an inter-school sports team, students were assigned to teams regardless of ability. Those with less ability are likely to have a miserable time (speaking from experience), those most skilled will be frustrated by the impact of the bumblers on their team’s performance, everyone loses.”

Peter Tuft, Kettering TAS

On street parking

“It is all very well to talk about kerbside parking being unnecessary, but try telling that to anyone with three or four adult children living at home because they can’t afford the extortionate rents and house prices we all face today. Mum and dad still working – have to with the cost of running a home, still mortgaged. Kids with social lives and jobs need cars. Public transport is not up to par generally. Where are we supposed to park five or six cars?”

Kim Ter-Horst

Newspoll corroborates two polls I reported last week that had One Nation first on primary votes, although only by one point in Newspoll instead of three points in the YouGov and Redbridge polls.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval slumped seven points to -24, a record low below his previous record low -21 in February 2025.

This article also includes coverage of the June 2 US California jungle primary and the June 18 UK Makerfield byelection. A Queensland state poll gave the LNP a big lead.

Newspoll

A national Newspoll, conducted June 1–4 from a sample of 1,240, gave One Nation 31% of the primary vote (up four since the previous Newspoll that was taken after the May 12 budget), Labor 30% (down one), the Coalition 18% (down two), the Greens 11% (down one) and all Others 10% (steady).

This is a record high for One Nation in Newspoll, the worst for Labor since 2011–13, when they were at 26–30% during Julia Gillard’s government and the Coalition’s worst since their February low that led to Sussan Ley’s axing as Liberal leader.

Since the mid-April Newspoll that was the last one taken before the budget, One Nation is up seven points, Labor down one, the Coalition down three, the Greens down two and all Others down one.

No two-party estimate was published, but The Australian’s report said “Labor would still lead under a two-party-preferred model slightly ahead of either One Nation or the Coalition”.

Albanese’s net approval slumped seven points to -24, with 60% dissatisfied and 36% satisfied. His net approval is below his previous low of -21 in February 2025. But two and a half months after Albanese’s February 2025 low, Labor won the May 2025 election by its biggest margin since 1943.

Here is a graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll with a trend line. His net approval had its second-term peak in August 2025 at +3, but it has been in the negative double digits since January this year, after the Bondi terror attacks.

Former Liberal PM Scott Morrison’s worst net approval was -22, with former Liberal PM Malcolm Turnbull the last PM to have an equal or worse net approval than Albanese.

Angus Taylor’s net approval improved two points to -10 (45% dissatisfied, 35% satisfied). Albanese led Taylor as better PM by 44–38 (46–38 previously).

On Australian politics, 61% said it is overdue for a big shake-up, while 26% said “Decades of steady governance have delivered prosperity that more chaotic political systems can only envy”.

US California jungle primary and UK Makerfield byelection

In California’s June 2 “jungle primary”, all candidates ran on the same ballot paper and the top two, regardless of party, qualified for the November general election. Counting is slow in California, with only 76% counted statewide now.

In April, Democrats had feared that two Republicans could advance in the gubernatorial primary, forcing an all-Republican gubernatorial general election in a heavily Democratic state. But Democrat Xavier Becerra has 27.3%, Republican Steve Hilton 25.4%, Democrat Tom Steyer 22.0% and Republican Chad Bianco 10.5%.

Becerra has been called as advancing and is likely to be joined by Hilton. Becerra will be strongly favoured to win in November.

In the Los Angeles mayoral election, incumbent Karen Bass faced a left-wing challenger (Nithya Raman) and a right-wing challenger (Spencer Pratt). With 83% in, Bass has 34.7%, Raman 27.1% and Pratt 26.7%. On election night, Pratt had led Raman by 30.0–20.3. With this trend, Raman is virtually certain to win the second runoff position.

A special election in California’s first federal seat occurred concurrently with the primary, after the Republican incumbent died in January. This seat voted for Donald Trump over Kamala Harris by 24.9 point in 2024. It has now been gerrymandered into a Democratic seat, but the 2024 boundaries were used for the special.

With 89% in, Republican James Gallagher was elected outright with 62.3%, avoiding a runoff by winning a majority. Two Democrats combined won 35.7%. Republicans overall won by 27.8 points, 2.9 points better for them then Trump’s 2024 margin.

After dismal results for UK Labour at May 7 Welsh and Scottish parliamentary elections and English local elections, PM Keir Starmer’s Labour leadership came under pressure. The Labour MP for Makerfield resigned to allow Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to run. If Burnham wins the June 18 Makerfield byelection, he is expected to challenge Starmer.

At the 2024 general election, Labour won Makerfield by 45.2–31.8 over the populist right Reform, but Reform won 50% in wards within Makerfield at the May local elections. A late May Survation poll of Makerfield gave Burnham a 49–39 lead over Reform, up from a 43–40 Burnham lead in mid-May.

There’s much more on California and Makerfield in my coverage for The Poll Bludger.

Queensland LNP extends big lead

A Queensland state DemosAU and Premier National poll, conducted May 27 to June 3 from a sample of 1,033, gave the Liberal National Party (LNP) 34% of the primary vote (steady since the February DemosAU poll), Labor 25% (down three), One Nation 24% (up three), the Greens 10% (steady) and all Others 7% (steady). The LNP led Labor by 58–42 after preferences, a two-point gain for the LNP.

Since the October 2025 DemosAU poll, One Nation is up ten points, the LNP down three, Labor down four, the Greens down two and all Others down one.

LNP incumbent David Crisafulli led Labor’s Steven Miles as preferred premier by 47–30 (43–32 in February). By 43–37, respondents thought Queensland was headed in the right direction (44–36 right in February).

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Every day, we publish a selection of your emails in our newsletter. We’d love to hear from you, you can email us at yoursay@theconversation.edu.au.

Monday June 1

Caught in the crosshairs

“It seems One Nation would have Andrew Hastie perjure himself if that is what will clear Ben Roberts-Smith. If Roberts-Smith is innocent, as he claims, the courts will find it. If not, Hastie’s evidence, if asked for and given, will likely play only a partial role in the outcome. One Nation, openly targeting a potential witness for what they assume he may or may not say, has shown themselves to be utterly lacking in integrity, of which quality Hastie seems to have in abundance.”

Graeme Osborne, Southern River, WA

What’s a crisis?

“I appreciate the Jon Wannberg’s comment on the excessive use of the word ‘trauma’. There is another word that has crept into political, media and now common use – crisis! When does a difficulty become a crisis? If one third of the population is having difficulty with some part of life and two thirds are not, is that a crisis? To me, a crisis is partly objective and partly social. Two parts of society can face the same problem and can define it differently. Politicians, organisations with an axe to grind and the news media are wanting us to jump from problem to crisis. Bah humbug.”

Paul Campbell, West End QLD

On trauma

“I read your recent article on trauma with great interest, though some dissatisfaction. I welcome the destigmatising effects of increasing public engagement with trauma, while worrying about its growing trivialisation. Trauma – alongside broader ‘psychology-speak’ – is increasingly appropriated by mainstream culture, where discursive practices are shaped by more privileged experiences; flattening important distinctions and obscuring the realities of those living with profound or enduring trauma-related distress. While this may reflect changing language, it comes at a cost if we lose sight of the experiences and forms of care most needed by people living with significant trauma-related distress.”

Sophia Schroeder

Tuesday June 2

One Nation’s treatment of journos

“It is deeply concerning to me that there has been so much silence around One Nation ejecting ABC journalists. There is no democracy without a free press, and allowing this to slide under the radar shows that we are already in the process of going down the path of the US. One Nation is counting on widespread situational ethics and moral cowardice to become ‘mainstream’. It is essential that the focus is kept on their bigoted and racist agenda. Interesting that this issue was not mentioned on ABC’s ‘Insiders’ program.”

Jane Davis, Melbourne VIC

Sleepy drivers

“As a sufferer of driver fatigue, I was keen to read this article. I hoped the article might mention the benefit of having a supply of snacks on hand for a long drive. As a young woman living in the country many years ago, I had great difficulty driving the 55 kilometres from home to ‘town’, or back, without feeling drowsy. A noticeboard in a doctor’s surgery advised that eating something was helpful for drowsy drivers. I knew I was going to have to eat quite a bit to keep me awake, so I decided apples would be ideal because each one would take a while to eat and be relatively low in calories. For a start I would often need to eat up to seven apples on the 55-kilometre trip! As the years went by, the number of apples reduced until eventually I could confidently leave home with just one apple to get me safely to my destination. Just reaching for the apple had me wide awake. I can only assume that somehow I was training my brain to stay awake.”

Christine Stevenson, Geelong, VIC

Wednesday June 3

Falling asleep at the wheel

“I’m wondering if drivers have a problem because automation has taken the effort away from driving. With auto transmissions first, then cruise control, now lane keeping and other ‘aids’, the only thing left for the driver is monitoring where the car is going. Not enough brain activity is left for the inherently dangerous activity of driving. I drive a 31-year-old manual with no aids. I have installed additional sensors to provide important information but I have to monitor it. Therefore I have enough brain cells in use to prevent drowsiness – even crossing the Nullabor or Hay Plain.”

Leigh Bunting, Adelaide SA

Do we really need more people?

“Do declining birth rates really matter? A question rarely asked is whether the current world population, on average, is higher or lower than the planet’s carrying capacity. Carrying capacity broadly represents the population size that allows humanity to exist in a sustainable balance with the environment. On this basis, the current world population may well exceed this limit. Therefore, simply replacing the current population level may not be the answer. Instead, advancements in AI, robotics, and humanoid robots could fill the void left by a decreasing population. The solution, perhaps, is not more babies, but technology.”

Ranjan Yagoda

Free power scheme

“We have to consider who some of the beneficiaries of free power are in the middle of a working weekday. Pensioners, people staying home minding children, unemployed or underemployed etc. As a pensioner I have had two lots of free power. It takes planning and hard work to use it well. Clothes washing, baking, vacuuming, sewing, washing carpets, even washing the dog. I am completely exhausted after my 3 hours of free power!”

Carolyn Bussey

Thursday June 4

Melbourne’s love for black

“This article was fascinating, but back in the 60s up until the mid-80s, Melbourne’s streets were actually a riot of colour. From the Paris end to the House of Merivale to the Myer Bargain Basement, colour was everywhere. I went away for a couple of years and, when l returned, everything was black (occasionally grey, camel or winter red). We blamed Geoffrey Saba at the time. True, the sharpies might have been drab(ish), but the punks were vibrant. Even the Toorak ladies wore jewel-bright tweeds. It´s been good to see colour returning to Melbourne´s streets of late.”

Maria Hungerford

Do old cars make better drivers?

“Leigh Bunting’s comments (Your Say, June 3) are so true. I have a 21 year old Toyota l have to use muscle to wind down and up my windows. But l am always aware and alert to other drivers. Especially the ones who drive those tanks they call cars. I guess we will have to wait until an accident happens involving a driver who fell asleep at their Tesla before something is done.”

Theresa Jackson, Sydney NSW

How do the Libs move forward?

“After each electoral setback the Liberals revert to the usual cliches about ‘having to do better’ or ‘listening to voters’ or ‘we need to change’ etc. But very little changes. And then they appoint Tony Abbott as president. It’s no wonder One Nation is overtaking them. They have wedged themselves into no man’s land. They can’t move to the left nor to the right. Their future is not looking bright. Their only hope is to wait until Labor self-destructs and they move slightly to the left. Then they may have a chance to get back into government.”

Doug Cadioli, Victoria Point QLD

A special Redbridge poll that was mostly taken before the federal budget had Labor winning 76 of the 150 House of Representatives seats (a majority of one), with One Nation on 53 and the Coalition 12.

Three more regular polls that were all taken since the budget have One Nation continuing to gain, with DemosAU having One Nation first on primary votes. The Essential and DemosAU polls both have the total vote for the Coalition and One Nation at 51%, while Morgan has the total right vote at 48.5%.

MRP polls (Multilevel Regression with Poststratification) use modelling and large sample sizes to estimate seat outcomes. A national Redbridge and Accent Research MRP poll for The Financial Review, conducted April 29 to May 14 from a sample of 6,015, had Labor winning 76 of the 150 House seats as its central estimate (down 18 since the 2025 election), a bare majority for Labor.

One Nation was winning 53 seats (up 53), the Coalition 12 (down 31), the Greens zero (down one) and others nine (down three). Seat ranges were 70–82 for Labor, 46–59 for One Nation, 7–21 for the Coalition, 0–1 for the Greens and 5–11 for others.

A total of 62 seats would change hands in the central estimate, with the Coalition losing 37 seats to One Nation while gaining five from Labor, and Labor making a few gains.

National primary votes in this poll were 31% Labor, 28% One Nation, 21% Coalition, 11% Greens and 9% for all Others. Most of the poll was taken before the May 12 federal budget. Polls since the budget have usually had drops for Labor, so the seat projections would probably be worse now.

DemosAU has One Nation leading on primary votes

A national for Capital Brief, conducted May 15–20 from a sample of 1,502, gave One Nation 28% of the primary vote (up two since the mid-April DemosAU poll), Labor 26% (steady), the Coalition 23% (steady), the Greens 13% (steady) and all Others 10% (down two).

No two-party estimate was provided, but seat projections gave Labor 65–74 of the 150 House seats (68–78 previously), One Nation 47–58 (40–51 previously), the Coalition 16–28 (16–30), the Greens 1–5 (1–4) and others 2–6 (3–8). This poll suggests Labor would lose their majority and that One Nation and the Coalition combined could have a majority.

In a three-way preferred PM question, Anthony Albanese had 34% (down one), Pauline Hanson 27% (up three) and Angus Taylor 23% (up one). Albanese’s net positive score was unchanged at -20 (47% negative, 27% positive). Taylor’s net positive was up four points to +1 (28% positive, 27% negative). Hanson’s net positive was up eight points to +3 (39% positive, 36% negative).

By 43–23, respondents thought the budget was bad. By 53–16, they thought the tax changes would make it harder for the average Australian, and by 44–17 they thought the changes would hurt the economy. By 34–29, respondents approved of the changes to negative gearing, but they disapproved by 29–28 of the changes to capital gains tax and by 34–27 of the changes to family trusts.

By 42–38, respondents thought income from investments should be taxed at a lower rate than work income, rather than similarly to work income.

Essential poll: One Nation’s rise continues

A national Essential poll, conducted May 20–24 from a sample of 1,062, gave Labor 29% of the primary vote (down one since the late April Essential poll), One Nation 28% (up three), the Coalition 23% (down one), the Greens 11% (steady), all Others 5% (steady) and undecided 4% (down one).

Despite One Nation’s primary vote surge, a better flow of respondent preferences to Labor gave them a 48–47 lead over the Coalition including undecided (previously 49–47 to the Coalition). By 2025 election preference flows, Labor would have led by about 50.5–49.5, a one-point gain for the Coalition. No Labor vs One Nation two-party estimate was given.

Albanese’s net approval slumped seven points to -17, with 54% disapproving and 37% approving. Taylor’s net approval was down four points to -4 (37% disapprove, 33% approve).

By 39–25, respondents disapproved of the overall budget. By 32–27, they supported the wind back of negative gearing and the capital gains discount for property. By 32–29, they supported the wind back of the capital gains discount for shares and investments. But by 38–26 they opposed the introduction of a 30% tax on family trusts.

By 45–21, respondents thought the budget would be bad for the economy overall and by 44–18 bad for “you personally”. By 30–28, respondents thought the negative gearing and capital gains changes would make the housing system less fair for younger people.

In contrast to the DemosAU poll, 32% thought profits from investments and assets should be taxed more than wages and salaries, 33% said they should be taxed at the same rate and just 13% thought wage income should be taxed more.

On the Albanese government’s performance since winning the May 2025 election, 55% said it had fallen short of expectations, 28% met expectations and just 6% said it had exceeded expectations.

By 46–41, respondents thought governments should stick to election commitments no matter what, over it being reasonable to change when circumstances change. By 53–8, they thought social media companies should be regulated more, not less.

On AI opportunities and risks, 36% said there were more risks (down 11 since May 2025), 22% more opportunities (up two) and 41% thought risks and opportunities about the same (up nine).

Morgan poll: Labor still ahead on primary votes

A national Morgan poll, conducted May 18–24 from a sample of 1,613, gave Labor 27.5% of the primary vote (down two since the May 11–17 Morgan poll), One Nation 25.5% (up one), the Coalition 23% (down one), the Greens 13.5% (up two) and all Others 10.5% (steady).

By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 53–47, a one-point gain for the Coalition. Labor led One Nation by 53.5–46.5, the first time Morgan has done a Labor vs One Nation two-party estimate. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition by 52–48, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.